indicators!! as useful as a polished turd

[tropical_goblin]

tropical_goblin,



Sounds good, (and I am not saying this tongue in cheek), so will you be offering some thoughts on how to move forward ?

Also as you trade currencies, do you do any kind of inter-currency price analysis other than the pair that you intend trading ?


Paul

i am completely new to this forum but i am a regular face helping others out in a forex room on paltalk where i often open up webinars to show others how i do things. i would like to extend this further so i will be making a regular visit here and will probably start a thread in the forex section.

regarding you Q on inter-currency anaysis the answer is yes and no. i only look at the relationship between eurgbp to decide on the either gbpusd or eurusd. other than that i look at each pair individualy excluding econimic data and only taking note if i am in a trade when something is about to be released.

 

[tropical_goblin]

This really annoys me this type of thread!

The markets are random, got it! How the hell is anybody on this planet supposed to know if a market is going up or down without MAs?

It really beggars belief!

REMEMBER! Price is not doing anything, until the MAs signal that price is doing something.

I'm really sick to death of all this indicator 'knocking'.

do you really believe price does nothing unless a moving average suggests so.

markets are only random to the untrained eye

 

[MrGecko]

I don't agree with the bit about bids >> offers implying bullish sentiment. Typically in sustained uptrends in SIFs, there is consistantly more size on the ask and the converse is true of downtrends. It depends on context.

If you look at a contract such as the DAX, any amount of size on the bid or ask can be taken out in the blink of an eye when there is strong trend.

This is exactly the point I tried to make with my ** comments.

My comments were made with currencies (candlesticks) and Interest rate futures (DOM; your Rotter quote was made with respect to IR futures) as reference points. It would be hard to argue that, in those markets, these tools are not appropriate.

There will always be examples of products that do not exhibit the same behaviour as others. Moreover, tools that are useful for one product might not be applicable to others (candlesticks arent any use to a delta hedged option position). As you rightly said, it depends on the context - and citing out of context examples does not constitute a fair crticism of an argument for the use of one particular set of tools in an appropriate market.

 

[MrGecko]

This really annoys me this type of thread!

The markets are random, got it! How the hell is anybody on this planet supposed to know if a market is going up or down without MAs?

It really beggars belief!

REMEMBER! Price is not doing anything, until the MAs signal that price is doing something.

I'm really sick to death of all this indicator 'knocking'.

I think this is inconsistent.

IF the markets are random, then they aren't really moving up or down at all. If one subscribes to the view that the markets are random, it is natural to assume they have the Markov property (basically, what has happened in the past doesn't matter - the only thing that matters is NOW; one of the first premises of quantitave finance).

Moving averages are a product of what has happend in the past; the notion of "trading with the trend" involves taking the view that prices are more likely to rise than fall (or vice versa), based on the observation that recently this is whats been happening. "More likely", in the limit, removes all randomness.

Belief in technical indicators, and a belief that the markets are random, are a priori at odds with each other.

 

[yacarob1]

Surely if the markets are random, then everyone involved in trading those markets would need to be acting randomly and completely independently, and not influenced by the actions of others.

This is clearly not the case and hence I would conclude that the markets are most certainly NOT random in nature.

Myself, I use 2 indicators, 2 moving averages and a straight horizontal line. I employ the same technique over and over again to quasi-scalp the markets and reap very satisfactory rewards.

These indicators work for me but it took me a long time to develop what is a very simple, but effective approach.

If the markets were random, then my approach would not be capable of multiple and regular repitition over the course of a trading day.

My opinion only, humble or not.

 

[Atilla]

Excuse me MrGecko but i dont find it amusing that you have manufactured a quote that i dint not write. i have in no shape or form written anything to pertray i am above anyone else yet you have taken it upon yourself to bring your arrogance to the table and quote me in that light. if you could just peel off that thick skin of yours and partake in the conversation with less testosterone and perhaps some brains then maybe forums like this will be a far better place. i am so tired of traders that are enjoying success paint arrogance all over forums like this destroying the potential for it to be a more mature and respectful place for all to enjoy. if you cannot contribute like a mature person without a head the size of an elephants ass then i suggest you dont comment at all. i understand much of these conversations have reapeated over time but the world is bigger than your mind MrGecko. there are other people out there that come on board with no knowledge of the ongoings in the past.

indicators!! as useful as a polished turd


"i know i am opening a can or worms here with many of you emotionally attached to your indicators. but have you ever considered using price action instead?"
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hey TG,

If you look at the title of your thread it has enhanced turd all over it.

It also has your strong emotionally attached opinion with !!! marks on it too.


Forgive me for being devils advocate with an Elephants ass and indeed it is very surprising you raise this fundamental question as I have never ever considered using price action but only use MAs, Pivot Point, Bollinger Bands with MACD and Slow Stochastics with a pinch of Fibonacci. But price I never really thought about. :whistling

Can you explain how you use price action on it's entirety and what you system is so that we can break away from the indicators that bind us.

 

[fibonelli]

My signal to noise ratio indicator is now at an all time low.

TBH, I'm getting pretty pi$$ed off with poor quality threads such as this one.

 

[tropical_goblin]

indicators!! as useful as a polished turd


"i know i am opening a can or worms here with many of you emotionally attached to your indicators. but have you ever considered using price action instead?"
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hey TG,

If you look at the title of your thread it has enhanced turd all over it.

It also has your strong emotionally attached opinion with !!! marks on it too.


Forgive me for being devils advocate with an Elephants ass and indeed it is very surprising you raise this fundamental question as I have never ever considered using price action but only use MAs, Pivot Point, Bollinger Bands with MACD and Slow Stochastics with a pinch of Fibonacci. But price I never really thought about. :whistling

Can you explain how you use price action on it's entirety and what you system is so that we can break away from the indicators that bind us.

reading your post i cant help but pickup a pinch of sarcasm from your part but it is expected on these forums with so many egotistical participants (not aimed at all,but you know who you are). its amusing how some people will disect the small detail someone writes and then manufactures an idea twisting it as if it were the origional writers words!!! oops i better not include exclamation marks because thats perceived as emotional attachment. i have no emotional attachment to indicator and none indicator traders. frankly you can trade with a coin i really dont care but topics around these sort of things bring up interesting debates which could lead to breakthroughs and quality contributions towards trading information. the problem is you have narrow minded individuals who dont know any better but no offense to them, it is a natural thing to throw up your defences when you dont know any better. i understand where they come from because i have also been there but there is no point having cat fights and see who has the biggest mouth. if you people just put your testosterone away for a minute and actually take on board some of these ideas you never know. you may become successful if your not or you may become very successful taking you beyond where you are now. who knows maybe even make some new friends along the way.

i have absolutely no problem with sharing how i do things but dont think for a second i can explain in in a single post. like everything it takes time to absorb things so give it time. i plan on opening a thread where i will offload all my methods. but to satisfy enquisitive minds here is the one short overview.
i use 2 time frames daily (get markets current picture) and the hourly where i make all my trades. the only tool i use is the andrews pitchfork which i use to describe price and the current frequency it is operating. i then track price action along the frequency where i take high probability\ low risk\ high reward swing trades. now before i get all the disecting bottom feeders throwing back at me "but the andrews pitchfork is an indicator"... if you term a geometry tool as an indicator just think before you reply to that.

 

[fibonelli]

tg,

I'm quoting your first post, verbatim:
"...indicators!! as useful as a polished turd
i know i am opening a can or worms here with many of you emotionally attached to your indicators. but have you ever considered using price action instead?..."

if you write nonsense like this, you shouldn't be surprised to get a negative response from experienced and successful traders.

 

[Atilla]

reading your post i cant help but pickup a pinch of sarcasm from your part but it is expected on these forums with so many egotistical participants (not aimed at all,but you know who you are). its amusing how some people will disect the small detail someone writes and then manufactures an idea twisting it as if it were the origional writers words!!! oops i better not include exclamation marks because thats perceived as emotional attachment. i have no emotional attachment to indicator and none indicator traders. frankly you can trade with a coin i really dont care but topics around these sort of things bring up interesting debates which could lead to breakthroughs and quality contributions towards trading information. the problem is you have narrow minded individuals who dont know any better but no offense to them, it is a natural thing to throw up your defences when you dont know any better. i understand where they come from because i have also been there but there is no point having cat fights and see who has the biggest mouth. if you people just put your testosterone away for a minute and actually take on board some of these ideas you never know. you may become successful if your not or you may become very successful taking you beyond where you are now. who knows maybe even make some new friends along the way.

i have absolutely no problem with sharing how i do things but dont think for a second i can explain in in a single post. like everything it takes time to absorb things so give it time. i plan on opening a thread where i will offload all my methods. but to satisfy enquisitive minds here is the one short overview.
i use 2 time frames daily (get markets current picture) and the hourly where i make all my trades. the only tool i use is the andrews pitchfork which i use to describe price and the current frequency it is operating. i then track price action along the frequency where i take high probability\ low risk\ high reward swing trades. now before i get all the disecting bottom feeders throwing back at me "but the andrews pitchfork is an indicator"... if you term a geometry tool as an indicator just think before you reply to that.

First paragraph equally applies to your comments too but I'm glad we are over that.

Second paragraph is interesting and I have seen the pitchfork in action and sometimes can pick it out in my S&R lines but don't actually use it as such.

I also use;

1. S&R lines as well as
2. Higher highs and lower lows and lower highs and higher lows as significant price actions
3. I would love to have volume too but CMC and CS don't seem to make them available in their charts.
4. My answer to you poll was yes by the way.

Indicators are second fiddle to price action but I haven't seen anybody turn off the price line and simply trade based on their indicators.

Finally, the Andrews pitchfork geometry result is definately an indicator as the angles and directions are obtained from past and present price coordinates.

No different to moving averages.

I sincerely miss your arguement there...

 

[north5]

Please feel free to correct any misunderstandings i have - I'm big enough to take the critisism.


Surely when you all talk about price action the best method for determining it has got to be a P&F chart. From my brief look about I can't seem to find anybody that uses this for Forex. Removing time from your view leaves you with a pure price play surely - and as far as I'm concerned the more you can remove from your data to leave the information you really want the better.

In fact I'm tempted to say that any decision that uses time to any extent is based on an indicator.:whistling

Any thoughts?

 

[tropical_goblin]

First paragraph equally applies to your comments too but I'm glad we are over that.

Second paragraph is interesting and I have seen the pitchfork in action and sometimes can pick it out in my S&R lines but don't actually use it as such.

I also use;

1. S&R lines as well as
2. Higher highs and lower lows and lower highs and higher lows as significant price actions
3. I would love to have volume too but CMC and CS don't seem to make them available in their charts.
4. My answer to you poll was yes by the way.

Indicators are second fiddle to price action but I haven't seen anybody turn off the price line and simply trade based on their indicators.

Finally, the Andrews pitchfork geometry result is definately an indicator as the angles and directions are obtained from past and present price coordinates.

No different to moving averages.

I sincerely miss your arguement there...

for the most part we are similar but different in our analysis. the only comment i have about moving averages compared to pitchforks is that MA's lag and pitchforks predict. how do you use your moving averages? i am interested how you trade without other indicators but use them.

 

[tropical_goblin]

Please feel free to correct any misunderstandings i have - I'm big enough to take the critisism.


Surely when you all talk about price action the best method for determining it has got to be a P&F chart. From my brief look about I can't seem to find anybody that uses this for Forex. Removing time from your view leaves you with a pure price play surely - and as far as I'm concerned the more you can remove from your data to leave the information you really want the better.

In fact I'm tempted to say that any decision that uses time to any extent is based on an indicator.:whistling

Any thoughts?

i wish in cash fx there was such a thing as volume charts to take out the time element. currenlty this sort of thing is only available in futures.

 

[Atilla]

for the most part we are similar but different in our analysis. the only comment i have about moving averages compared to pitchforks is that MA's lag and pitchforks predict. how do you use your moving averages? i am interested how you trade without other indicators but use them.

MAs predict too. When they start bunching up and go horizontal it's indicating trend is levelling up. Pitchforks are merely S&R lines no more no less. You can project any sort of lines and take your queue. Gann Lines and Fib Fans and Arcs equally the same. Are you sure you are not exhibiting selective bias with respective to your choice of indicators/system?

I use DEMA13, 21 & 34 (these numbers can vary depending on time frame).

When they bunch up and turn horizontal couple with price cutting through MAs is buy or sell with various indicators confirming overbought or oversold areas. Simple text book theory really.

If price is to the left of MAs trend is down.
If price is to the right of MAs trend is up.
I think of these to fundamental positions as driving on the correct side of the road ie lanes.

On sideway moving days move in and out of time frames or remain flat.

I don't understand your last sentence I'm afraid.

 

[tropical_goblin]

MAs predict too. When they start bunching up and go horizontal it's indicating trend is levelling up. Pitchforks are merely S&R lines no more no less. You can project any sort of lines and take your queue. Gann Lines and Fib Fans and Arcs equally the same. Are you sure you are not exhibiting selective bias with respective to your choice of indicators/system?

I use DEMA13, 21 & 34 (these numbers can vary depending on time frame).

When they bunch up and turn horizontal couple with price cutting through MAs is buy or sell with various indicators confirming overbought or oversold areas. Simple text book theory really.

If price is to the left of MAs trend is down.
If price is to the right of MAs trend is up.
I think of these to fundamental positions as driving on the correct side of the road ie lanes.

On sideway moving days move in and out of time frames or remain flat.

I don't understand your last sentence I'm afraid.

thanks for the short and sweet i have an idea now how you use them.
i just wanted to correct you about the pitchforks being just s&r. they are actually based on isaac newtons action reaction laws. did you know that DR A Andrews predicted the weather for 2 years using this technique and he did a better job than the weather man. Rodger Babson used them too to predict the stock market 15 years into the future the not only predicting the 1929 crash but also a very close mirror image of the market. now if these are just s&r lines then i must be drinking the wrong brand of coffee.

 

[Paul71]

I think this is inconsistent.

IF the markets are random, then they aren't really moving up or down at all. If one subscribes to the view that the markets are random, it is natural to assume they have the Markov property (basically, what has happened in the past doesn't matter - the only thing that matters is NOW; one of the first premises of quantitave finance).

Moving averages are a product of what has happend in the past; the notion of "trading with the trend" involves taking the view that prices are more likely to rise than fall (or vice versa), based on the observation that recently this is whats been happening. "More likely", in the limit, removes all randomness.

Belief in technical indicators, and a belief that the markets are random, are a priori at odds with each other.

People who become consistant traders are just born lucky or something. I mean look at Jesse Livermore, when he sold Union Pacific, when its was price was going up, and added to an initial losing trade. He didn't know anything about price action or darksiding, he just knew when earthquakes were going to happen, but so do a lot of people.

No one even knows how the markets really work for gods sake, wether they are stochastically driven, bollinger driven or wether or not it's the macd that carefully binds it all together.

Just some input.

Cheers.

 

[tropical_goblin]

People who become consistant traders are just born lucky or something. I mean look at Jesse Livermore, when he sold Union Pacific, when its was price was going up, and added to an initial losing trade. He didn't know anything about price action or darksiding, he just knew when earthquakes were going to happen, but so do a lot of people.

No one even knows how the markets really work for gods sake, wether they are stochastically driven, bollinger driven or wether or not it's the macd that carefully binds it all together.

Just some input.

Cheers.

the markets are not random but not consistent. how do you think repeatable trades are possible. the reason so many fail is because we are hard wired for the wrong kind of success. to be consistent you need to be a professional loser and by that i mean you need to understand that not every setup works, not every setup is good but because a probable outcome is more possible than failure even though not perfect you can make good money winning with as few as 3 trades out of every 10.

 

[Paul71]

the markets are not random but not consistent. how do you think repeatable trades are possible. the reason so many fail is because we are hard wired for the wrong kind of success. to be consistent you need to be a professional loser and by that i mean you need to understand that not every setup works, not every setup is good but because a probable outcome is more possible than failure even though not perfect you can make good money winning with as few as 3 trades out of every 10.

3 out of 10? Say i get the first 21 trades wrong? When will the 3 parts of the 10 eventually come? It's all way too risky and random, TG.

All them ratios and percentages don't seem to work for most people.

Paul.

 

[tropical_goblin]

3 out of 10? Say i get the first 21 trades wrong? When will the 3 parts of the 10 eventually come? It's all way too risky and random, TG.

All them ratios and percentages don't seem to work for most people.

Paul.

i think the reason why they dont seem to work for most people is either the setups do not have a high probability or they are not being followed the same every time(discipline). if you get the first 21 trades wrong then i would say you are doing something wrong or your setup(s) are not very good. im not perfect but i maintain a ratio of between 50-60%.

 

[Paul71]

Triangle and wedge BOs supplemented with a 20,50 xover is supposedly the elite setup, but it emptied my account in days and i was only risking 5% on the 5min charts.