If you want to fail as a trader, study TA

Status
Not open for further replies.
I know it took me a long time to have a 'regular' read every morning before it opens; the thing is your obviously not trading technical; so you must be trading something; so you must get information from somewhere that others aren't too familiar with ...

That was really my question. What sources do you use ?

Mine are:

Seeking Alpha.com
Bloomberg.com
Cmegroup.com
NYSE.com
Econoday.com
Ransquawk.com
dailyfinance.com
Earnings.com
Briefings.com
& one more, what is itttt.... Damn it. Got it. Investors.com

Hi Glad',
Your post is the sort that worries me. After the best part of 8 years in this game, I sort of think I know my own mind and am - broadly speaking - happy with my approach to the markets. When I see someone trading the same instruments as me (or similar - in your case) and doing something I'm not, I'm normally comfortable with it. However, in this case, I'm mildly concerned. I can't help but think that if I spent half an to an hour scanning all the sites you mention, my head would just be filled with a whole bunch of stuff that's going to make life harder than it is already when the market opens and I start trading. If you'd care to expand on what you look for from any (or all!) of those sites and how they influence your decision making process(es) for the better - then i'm all ears. As things stand, I'm inclined to stick to the TA mantra that whatever you read on those sites is largely factored into price already and that so long as I do an adequate job in 'reading' my charts - I should do ok!
;)
Tim.
 
bbmac could you post a daily oil chart with all your indicators? i have a feeling they will show huge divergence..cept we are trading higher now ;)
 
wish i has rubbed the lucky buddha before hitting the sauce last night, feels like some1 has split my head open with a wrecking bar!
 
bbmac could you post a daily oil chart with all your indicators? i have a feeling they will show huge divergence..cept we are trading higher now ;)

The Daily oil chart is below and as you will see there was regular immediate seperate valley bullish divergence in all 3 oscillators at the 67.95 Lo, that level being 61.8% fib of the 59.14-82.35 swing up/76.4% of 63.64 to same 82.35 swing hi, 38.2% fib fan of the 39.30-82.35 swing.

2hr3lvd.jpg


Not all divergence patterns are valid and for divergence to mean something I look for repeating hi probability set-ups that involve divergence and bol band patterns at pre-identified potential supp/res factors.

G/L
 
and what about the current situation? surely yesterday looked a good sell from a technical point of view?
 
I agree with the above (EDIT - Ze post to which I was agreein is no longer there)- fundies create movement and the skill of reading L2/T&S comes over time and constantly improves. Mr C taught me the L2 stuff and I am still learning or rather - he outlined the salient points and then told me the skill would come a bit like learning to drive.

I am still learning - but as GladiatorX pointed out - you can often see moves coming before they occur. Not just on the way in but the way out too...

attachment.php


Still - this is NOT RTA, I have never seen a book describing this skillset or rather, I have never seen a book describing this skill as it applies in 2010.
 

Attachments

  • marvellous.png
    marvellous.png
    7.1 KB · Views: 746
hmmmmm - I swear there was a post from GladiatorX on the black art of L2/T&S to which I was replying...
 
i have spent the last 2 hours reading this thread from beginning to end. at page 41 i find myself at one conclusion. The Expert has parted with pertinent information that every aspiring trader needs to brand in their minds. if you want to have any chance at consistency, the LAST thing you should ever do, is hang onto words of someone who knows as much about trading as paris hilton knows about physics.
By following this guideline, you will avoid self embarrassment when you realise the taste in your mouth is from the chewing of cryptic bull**** you have been attempting to assimilate, and merely washing it down with a glass of water doesn't part with the taste. like everything in life, some like their cheese on a plate while others prefer it on a stick with olives and little red things that have no name. everyone makes their money differently, some make it on feeding the bull**** to aspiring minds, some sell 2nd hand cars, some traders make money off TA, others make money off logic and fundamentals.... the question you should really be asking is why is there so much bull**** in the first place
 
I agree with the above (EDIT - Ze post to which I was agreein is no longer there)- fundies create movement and the skill of reading L2/T&S comes over time and constantly improves. Mr C taught me the L2 stuff and I am still learning or rather - he outlined the salient points and then told me the skill would come a bit like learning to drive.

I am still learning - but as GladiatorX pointed out - you can often see moves coming before they occur. Not just on the way in but the way out too...

attachment.php


Still - this is NOT RTA, I have never seen a book describing this skillset or rather, I have never seen a book describing this skill as it applies in 2010.

Hey, D-T,
If there's anything you want to ask, clarify whatever, don't hesitate to ask me privately.
Always very happy to help you,
Take care,
Richard
 
i have spent the last 2 hours reading this thread from beginning to end. at page 41 i find myself at one conclusion. The Expert has parted with pertinent information that every aspiring trader needs to brand in their minds. if you want to have any chance at consistency, the LAST thing you should ever do, is hang onto words of someone who knows as much about trading as paris hilton knows about physics.
By following this guideline, you will avoid self embarrassment when you realise the taste in your mouth is from the chewing of cryptic bull**** you have been attempting to assimilate, and merely washing it down with a glass of water doesn't part with the taste. like everything in life, some like their cheese on a plate while others prefer it on a stick with olives and little red things that have no name. everyone makes their money differently, some make it on feeding the bull**** to aspiring minds, some sell 2nd hand cars, some traders make money off TA, others make money off logic and fundamentals.... the question you should really be asking is why is there so much bull**** in the first place

Well well, it is nice to see that someone has finally come out and said what needs to be said, good on you forker, you appear to know what one needs to know.

I will now add to your astute observations.

Trading is a fools game, but only if you are a fool. The only way a trader is going to become successful, and the level of success is relevant to how serious the trader is about trading, is by experience trading live markets, no matter what the market of choice is.

There are NO EXPERTS, FULL STOP.

What we have is, people trying to justify a reason for a decision that they have made either being right or wrong. Who cares about the reasons, for what really matters is the outcome itself.

If you are making money then ignore what every idiot on the web is posting, including The Expert(y)

However, depending on what market the trader has chosen, one can of course learn about how certain aspects work best, for instance, a buy order must be submitted via electronic means and there are several ways of submitting that order electronically, and, some traders just make money by submitting orders in a certain way, again, this was learned from experience, not from being showed how it is done, for one can be shown that in a very short time.

So, in summary, decide what YOU want out of trading, set some simple objectives with time targets, review the objectives and adjust accordingly as per feedback, set new time targets, and repeat the cycles until you are consistently profitable at the level you have set for yourself.

If you are happy with $2K per month then fine, but make sure your plan only risks money you are willing to lose, for if you trade with money you can not afford, you might be in for 1 big surprise, especially if you are using big leverage.

Also, make mental notes of the info that you can relate to, but validate it first as best as you can. For eg, I mention Barry Rudd's book, with some useful info, and some not so useful. The useful part is the bit where you see narrow trading range near the H/L of day for a period of time, as this ties in with another useful part that I read some years ago, I can't remember the author but I definitely rememebr the words, and they are as folows, "narrow range bars are always followed by wide range bars".

In essence what they are describing is contraction and expansion, which is nothing more then trading activity. Prices will not stay stagnant for too long a period:cheesy:

Trade what you see, Not what you think you see:clap:

BTW, I am still The Expert:smart:
 
Hey TE you're starting to make some sense, if I were a girl I might even slowly start thinking about asking you to let me have your baby.

:D

Course I'd have to ask Paul too cos he's a parallel brainer see and I couldn't let that opportunity pass me by.

:)

George%20Michael%20I%20Want%20Your%20Sex%20Sex%20Sex%20Baby.JPG
 
Hey TE you're starting to make some sense, if I were a girl I might even slowly start thinking about asking you to let me have your baby.

:D

Course I'd have to ask Paul too cos he's a parallel brainer see and I couldn't let that opportunity pass me by.

:)

George%20Michael%20I%20Want%20Your%20Sex%20Sex%20Sex%20Baby.JPG

Sorry BSD, but I am sterile, as I found the testosterone interferes with my trading:cheesy:

As for George, well, he is a good singer, that much I do like about him, for his antics in public toilets, well, lets just say that it is a bit sore:LOL:
 
. . .
So, in summary, decide what YOU want out of trading, set some simple objectives with time targets, review the objectives and adjust accordingly as per feedback, set new time targets, and repeat the cycles until you are consistently profitable at the level you have set for yourself.
. . .
41 pages and we finally get to the point. (a point originally made by the psychiatrist in in Market Wizards II iirc)
 
Agree its a total waste of time and energy only ever looks any good in hindsight :)
 

Attachments

  • ftse wk.jpg
    ftse wk.jpg
    104.6 KB · Views: 152
  • ftse week.jpg
    ftse week.jpg
    194.2 KB · Views: 150
  • ftse wk bollinger.jpg
    ftse wk bollinger.jpg
    156.6 KB · Views: 160
  • ftse day.jpg
    ftse day.jpg
    247.1 KB · Views: 132
  • Hikkake Set up.pdf
    166.6 KB · Views: 271
Last edited:
Agree its a total waste of time and energy only ever looks any good in hindsight

Not exactly true!

I have seen some traders pick market tops and bottoms bang on to within a few ticks, several times, but, I think the reason that they picked the top and bottom was not the reason they thought it to be.

No so long ago I was speaking with a person who bought bank shares when they were at 5 Euro, and then they dropped down to under 20 cent, went back to about 3.50 and went back down to under 1.00, and now are back up just over 1.40.

Do you know what that INVESTOR is waiting for to happen, and what that INVESTOR is going to do when it happens?
 
41 pages and we finally get to the point. (a point originally made by the psychiatrist in in Market Wizards II iirc)

Always remember that "one man's opinion is another man's downfall"

Know your abilities and your limitations, trade what you see, not what you think you see, read everything with a pinch of salt, memorize the few important bits, wait for the big picture to become clear, then act on what you know and stop daydreaming.

If you can do this, you will make good money trading, if not, then the odds are you will not make good money and may in fact lose good money!
 
Not exactly true!

I have seen some traders pick market tops and bottoms bang on to within a few ticks, several times, but, I think the reason that they picked the top and bottom was not the reason they thought it to be.

No so long ago I was speaking with a person who bought bank shares when they were at 5 Euro, and then they dropped down to under 20 cent, went back to about 3.50 and went back down to under 1.00, and now are back up just over 1.40.

Do you know what that INVESTOR is waiting for to happen, and what that INVESTOR is going to do when it happens?

This is elementary psychology and the downfall of many a trader. The investor has been burned and will wait with "hope" that price will rise to make him whole again. When and if price reaches entry price he will sell and sigh a sigh of relief. If price eventually rises way above entry price he will not regret having sold as his reward for hanging on was\is focused on avoiding a loss.

I afforded myself the luxury of this hope scenario after '87 when 10 of thousands were wiped off a portfolio of stocks I was holding. By '92 I had sold the lot for an average 10% profit but by then I had become a trader, recognised that holding in hope leads to trader's demise and started to treat markets as a casino. Anywhere that can reduce a portion of my net wealth by a between a third and a half does not deserve my money but I will happily play both sides of that stupid switchback leveraged up to the eyeballs:)
 
Always remember that "one man's opinion is another man's downfall"

Know your abilities and your limitations, trade what you see, not what you think you see, read everything with a pinch of salt, memorize the few important bits, wait for the big picture to become clear, then act on what you know and stop daydreaming.

If you can do this, you will make good money trading, if not, then the odds are you will not make good money and may in fact lose good money!

Good, succinct post.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top