If You Can Draw A Straight Line (You Can Become A Successful Trader)

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I'll take a look at your developing a plan book. I just got done reading the book you posted in your first post on this thread and understood maybe 80% of it. In the book you quote Richard Wyckoff a lot, i could read his book eventually.

The O'neil book you recommended though it has stocks in the title can still be useful for forex and futures, right?

I thought i could start with an hourly chart and 15 minute while paying attention to the trend in the daily and weekly and the support and resistance levels.

I am a poor person so futures is not an option right now to start with because the required account size. I heard of a site called Nadex and thought i could start there so i already deposited a little over $300 there. I'm not going to trade with real money though until i know i'm ready, and i know if i can't make money in demo i won't make money live.

Eventually i would love to make a living trading, but know that i can't do it overnight.

You mentioned falling for bad courses and stuff so i thought i'd mention that i did find good reviews on a course by Chris Capre from 2ndskiesforex where he teaches price action. Based on your response i would guess you wouldn't recommend this.

Trading seems complicated, but i imagine for people who have found the truth it is simple. I got sucked into the whole indicator thing and it wasn't doing very well so i'm glad i found this thread, because i want to start from scratch, because i feel like i know nothing.

1. The SLA, uploaded to post 1, is for those who already have a pretty good idea of what they want, or who have experienced repeated failures and have a real good idea of what they don't want.

2. O'N's book applies to any auction market. I urge you, however, to avoid forex and futures.

3. If by "start" you mean what you're going to observe during the observation phase, I suggest you look at something smaller. There's a lot going on in even a 15m bar that you'll never see if you don't look at anything smaller. Even if you're not interested in trading price, it's important that you know what's going on with it so that you can interpret your indicator properly.

4. With all due respect to Mr. Capre, there are no "price action traders" of whom I'm aware that focus on price action without the aid of indicators and/or patterns. I wish there were. Then of course there's the $500 each for his courses.

You should also know that every "price action trader" of whom I'm aware -- including Seiden, Beggs, and Brooks -- derive everything they have from Wyckoff. This is not a personal criticism, just an acknowledgement of the work done by the real pioneers: Wyckoff, Livermore, Gartley, Schabacker, Hamilton, Rhea, et al. As for patterns, a surprising number come from -- of all places -- Oliver Velez (yes, the much maligned Oliver Velez; go figure).

If you've already experienced failure, you're already beginning behind the starting block. Be very careful. Study the market. Determine for yourself where and when and how price goes up and down. It's not complicated. You don't have to spend hundreds and thousands of dollars on books and courses. The charts below were annotated by a nine-year-old girl.
 

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Why not forex or futures? I was told to avoid stocks.

Well i already had this prepared, so i wonder if you can take a look at it and tell me if i did right... here's a screencast:

http://screencast.com/t/vMB7fVaaI9

vMB7fVaaI9


I still have to read your trading plan book now :)

1. The SLA, uploaded to post 1, is for those who already have a pretty good idea of what they want, or who have experienced repeated failures and have a real good idea of what they don't want.

2. O'N's book applies to any auction market. I urge you, however, to avoid forex and futures.

3. If by "start" you mean what you're going to observe during the observation phase, I suggest you look at something smaller. There's a lot going on in even a 15m bar that you'll never see if you don't look at anything smaller. Even if you're not interested in trading price, it's important that you know what's going on with it so that you can interpret your indicator properly.

4. With all due respect to Mr. Capre, there are no "price action traders" of whom I'm aware that focus on price action without the aid of indicators and/or patterns. I wish there were. Then of course there's the $500 each for his courses.

You should also know that every "price action trader" of whom I'm aware -- including Seiden, Beggs, and Brooks -- derive everything they have from Wyckoff. This is not a personal criticism, just an acknowledgement of the work done by the real pioneers: Wyckoff, Livermore, Gartley, Schabacker, Hamilton, Rhea, et al. As for patterns, a surprising number come from -- of all places -- Oliver Velez (yes, the much maligned Oliver Velez; go figure).

If you've already experienced failure, you're already beginning behind the starting block. Be very careful. Study the market. Determine for yourself where and when and how price goes up and down. It's not complicated. You don't have to spend hundreds and thousands of dollars on books and courses. The charts below were annotated by a nine-year-old girl.
 
Why not forex or futures? I was told to avoid stocks.

Well i already had this prepared, so i wonder if you can take a look at it and tell me if i did right... here's a screencast:

http://screencast.com/t/vMB7fVaaI9

vMB7fVaaI9


I still have to read your trading plan book now :)

Start with something you understand. You're far more likely to find something you understand in stocks given the thousands you have to choose from.

Futures are fine if you have $10,000. Otherwise, you can observe them for practice. As they trade 24/5, you can observe the trading outside regular market hours in order to determine whether or not this is something that might be of interest to you.

Your image did not upload. But whether you "did right" or not is irrelevant. You have no plan. Put together a thoroughly-tested and consistently-profitable trading plan. If you elect not to do that, then expect to lose all your money.
 
morning ftse fun

dow was in a tight range and the sudden down move was going to be a shakeout, but maybe not. I'll be looking short now unless it goes back above TL
 

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morning ftse fun

dow was in a tight range and the sudden down move was going to be a shakeout, but maybe not. I'll be looking short now unless it goes back above TL

If you're playing with the SLA, it would more likely have gone like this, according to the rules:


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If you're playing with the SLA, it would more likely have gone like this, according to the rules:


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yes, but I started from the open and didn't come forward from yesterday. That's probably against the rules, but this is M5.
 
yes, but I started from the open and didn't come forward from yesterday. That's probably against the rules, but this is M5.

Any given individual is free to modify the rules however he chooses, of course, but where one starts is not pertinent to the approach. As price is continuous, everything is "brought forward". 17392 is reached at the NY open, providing plenty of time to draw the demand line, if necessary, and go long. The long is stopped out for a slight loss, but there's plenty of time to enter the short at 1035. That would also be stopped out by now. If SO for a loss, also small, then trading would stop until price exits the chop. One of the more important aspects of the SLA is to keep the trader out of unfriendly environments.
 
............... One of the more important aspects of the SLA is to keep the trader out of unfriendly environments..................

And it does that pretty well.

Price maybe continuous but how do you cope with the gaps? That's what prompted me to "start" at the open . The market soon gets you marching on the right foot if you've set off wrongly.
 
And it does that pretty well.

Price maybe continuous but how do you cope with the gaps? That's what prompted me to "start" at the open . The market soon gets you marching on the right foot if you've set off wrongly.

Futures gap only from Friday evening to Sunday evening. The gap from the 7th to the 9th was hardly noticeable. This is one reason why I switched to futures.
 
Futures gap only from Friday evening to Sunday evening. The gap from the 7th to the 9th was hardly noticeable. This is one reason why I switched to futures.

Aye, and you can't actually trade the dow itself, of course, unless you spreadbet in which case their price is pretty continuous too. For the "analysis" I've been using the actual index, which does gap, but traded it via spreadbet.
 
I read your trading plan book dbphoenix. Thumbs up.

Do you trade with nothing but lines on your chart? No volume?
 
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After skimming over this again, i realize how much i don't understand. I really didn't understand your Straight line approach / Auction Market Theory even though i want to (i thought i did at first). How do you trade stocks through an online broker without investing the money you have to with futures? O'neil book is on the way and the others i'll see if my library can get (small library).

Well, I wrote "Developing A Plan" for those who are only thinking about starting as well as those who have thought about it and want to get on with the process of cobbling together a plan.

In order to succeed at trading, you must have an edge. Your edge begins with the knowledge you gain through your research and testing that a particular market behavior offers a level of predictability that provides a consistently profitable outcome over time. Without it, one is just "playing" the market in order to have something to talk about on message boards. To get it, you have to know exactly what you're looking for and what to do with it once you've found it. This process is what the journal is all about.

The journal goes through several stages depending on where you are. Once you've decided where you want to concentrate your efforts (at this level, the journal may resemble a diary), then you begin the process of developing a system (or method, strategy, procedure, whatever you want to call it). Here the journal takes on a different character. Once you've developed a tentative/preliminary system, you begin testing/trading it, and the journal adopts a still different character.

The first step is to decide what kind of trader you want to be.
  • What do you want to accomplish with your trading? Is it recreational? Supplementary income? A part-time job? Do you want to make a living at it? Even the greenest of the green knows whether or not he wants to make a living at it, trade only part time, trade for recreation, trade for the action, trade to have something to talk about with other traders (for whatever reason), trade only long enough to earn money to do or buy X.

  • Do you have any idea what sort of trading is most comfortable? Long or intermediate-term trading? Short-term trading? Day-trading? Trend-trading? Scalping? (Note here that a short-term trader, for example, does not become a long-term trader just because his stop was hit and he didn't sell; a long-term trader doesn't become a short-term trader because he chickened out and sold too soon. Each of these approaches are selected deliberately and for thoroughly-considered reasons.) How patient are you? How adventurous? Are you a leader or a follower (most people think they're leaders)?
The second step is to decide what you're going to trade and when you're going to trade it.
  • Have you found an instrument -- futures, stocks, ETFs, bonds, options -- that provides you with the range and volatility you require but also the safety that enables you to relax and trade in an objective and rational manner?

  • Have you yet found a time (5m, hourly, daily) interval that gives you enough trading opportunities but also gives you enough time to think about what you're doing? If you want to limit your trading to the "morning", are you physically and psychologically prepared to trade all day? If not, can you shrug off whatever opportunities you may miss by limiting the amount of time you spend trading?
The third step is to develop your system.

And the rest is in the pdf below. This is also part of my book. Tim put something together as well but I don't know what his plans are for it. However, the attached may get you started.

Websites? No. Books? Other than my own, of course, about the only books I can recommend to a beginner are The General Semantics of Wall Street by John Magee (don't spend tons of money on this; try to get it from your library; you might also find a pdf of it floating around), The Nature of Risk by Justin Mamis, and How To Make Money In Stocks by Wm O'Neil (I recommend the first edition because later ones became increasingly obnoxious about pushing "Investor's Business Daily"). Avoid anything that claims to be able to tell you "how to trade". Granted mine offers a simple approach to trading price, but it is only one option among several that one has available after having gone through the process of developing a plan (one may, for example, decide after having gone through that process that his future lies with MACD divergences, in which case I'll provide him with a box lunch and my best wishes as I send him on his way). There are other things in it -- particularly the appendix on fear -- that will be useful to just about anybody.

The best teacher is the market. Study the market. If you don't know what to look at, or for, "Developing A Plan" will be useful as well as HTMMIS. If you don't understand what you're looking at, much less what to look for, you'll be susceptible to every pitch out there: the books, the courses, the dvds, the software plugins, and all the rest of it. Above all, be skeptical of everything and everybody. Only the market can be relied upon. Only the market will not lie.

Do not even think about beginning without a plan. To do so invites failure, and once that cycle begins, fear busts in and drives its hooks into your back. At that point, you've got a long, rough, and extremely difficult road ahead of you, all of which can be avoided by putting your eagerness to trade on the back burner and instead studying and practicing. As for the plan, you can put together a thoroughly-tested and consistently-profitable plan without spending a dime. Investing.com, for example, has free live charts that you can use to observe price movements in real time, though whether the feed is real-time or delayed isn't particularly important at this level as long as it's moving. NinjaTrader offers free replay functionality (which is not to say that I recommend NT as a broker; the onslaught of emails you'll receive are an unintended turnoff, and you may eventually decide to categorize them all as spam; even so, replay will enable you to test out your plan).

If the study and the practice are intolerable, then you will very likely fail. They won't take forever. Perhaps, with replay, only a few months. Otherwise you may go on for two or three or five years or more without even being able to do more than breakeven, if that, and perhaps that only after having blown through several accounts. A few months of study and practice are a cheap price to pay.
 
I read your trading plan book dbphoenix. Thumbs up.

Do you trade with nothing but lines on your chart? No volume?

No, no volume. I -- and anybody else -- can detect changes in activity by the way price is moving. No need to take up real estate with an unnecessary window.
 
After skimming over this again, i realize how much i don't understand. I really didn't understand your Straight line approach / Auction Market Theory even though i want to (i thought i did at first). How do you trade stocks through an online broker without investing the money you have to with futures? O'neil book is on the way and the others i'll see if my library can get (small library).

Two different brokers.
 
Those who have read post 1 will of course be in a better position to understand the topic than those who haven't. Those who have been curious enough about it to actually work with it – or at least play with it – will be in a better position still. Those who have read it will also understand that the SLA/AMT is essentially an interday approach, beginning as it does with an examination of the weekly chart, through the daily, to the hourly. The examples provided in post 1 employ hourly "bars", or intervals. Applying the SLA/AMT to an intraday environment requires an understanding of the difference in dynamics: there are obviously many more trading opportunities presented and therefore trading decisions that must be made employing a 1m interval than when employing a 60m interval.

The basic SLA/AMT presented in post 1 is a primer. Training wheels for the beginner. Rehab for the damaged trader. The beginner will learn discipline, patience, all the good stuff below. The damaged trader will, one hopes, find his way back to a disciplined and professional approach, assuming he was ever disciplined and professional in the first place. If he wasn't, then it may provide him with a reset and reboot. A way back. The damaged trader will find it vastly more difficult to start over. But it can be done.

If one wants to be a winning trader (and who doesn't), there are certain characteristics that one must either have or acquire. Fortunately, the SLA/AMT addresses all of them.

1. Losses. One must accept the fact that he is going to incur losses, no matter what bar interval he chooses. The task is not to avoid loss but rather contain it. The SLA/AMT is designed not to prevent loss but to keep losses minimal.

2. Preparation. Doing nothing before the beginning of the session in anticipation of exciting, new experiences pretty much guarantees that those experiences are not going to be pleasant. No, one cannot know for sure what is going to happen, but he can know where he is with regard to whatever extremes are in his neighborhood, probably ranges. If he hasn't reviewed at least the weekly, daily, and hourly charts before his session, he has no one to blame but himself for what happens. If he has reviewed these charts, he will have a clearer notion of where and how far price may go, which may help him stay in a trade rather than jump out simply because price has gone against him a tick or two.

3. Planning. The SLA/AMT is its own plan. But if it isn't followed, if it's "tweaked", it can't be expected to function properly. Yes, there are minor decisions that must be made on the fly if one is truly reading price and not just being led on a leash, but as one gains familiarity with price behavior, these decisions become matter of course, like slowing down at a Yield sign. Larger changes, however, will most likely require at least minimal testing. Changing something just because "it seems like a good idea" is not likely to yield the desired result. As for ignoring the rules altogether, well . .

4. Discipline. Without discipline, whatever you do will result in failure. The SLA/AMT, however, forces you to be disciplined. If you keep fighting it, like hitting the snooze button over and over again, it will fold its arms and lean against the wall, waiting for you to pull yourself together. If you are a beginner, but especially if you're damaged, it is essential that you follow the rules. Yes, you will have to decide what, for example, constitutes a "break" of a line: a tick, two ticks, a point or two. But not five. Not ten. Not half your account (an hourly interval, of course, requires a bit more leeway than a point or two). And you must do this every single occurrence. Otherwise the SLA/AMT is no better than that trading plan you got in your mailbox from Profits 'R Us.

5. Patience. The best trades are found at the extremes, either of range limits or channel limits. If you're nowhere near one or the other, you have nothing to do but watch (and don't try to be clever and draw teeny-tiny ranges and teeny-tiny channels in teeny-tiny bar intervals to rationalize and justify your lack of patience).
  • Learn to use inaction as a defense against your tendencies toward impulsive action, e.g., "revenge trading", or fear of "missing it", or "making up" for that loss.
  • Don't get irritated or angered or feel like a martyr when waiting.
  • Regard patience as a central pillar of your strategy. Don't assign it a secondary or lesser role.
  • Don't be impatient about patience. One part of your brain is telling you to be patient while another is saying, "What's taking so long?" These must work it out and learn to live together.
  • Begin by being patient, but don't forget to stay patient. The important thing is not whether you are controlled and disciplined at the start of your session, but also at the middle, the end, and all points throughout. (from Zen and the Art of Poker)
One of the best rules anybody can learn about investing is to do nothing, absolutely nothing, unless there is something to do. Most people always have to be playing; they always have to be doing something. They can't just sit there and wait for something new to develop. I wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime. Even people who lose money in the market say, 'I just lost my money, now I have to do something to make it back.' No, you don't. You should sit there until you find something.

–Jim Rogers​
6. Record-keeping. It is essential to collect and maintain records of your end-of-session reviews (you are of course doing end-of-session chart/trade reviews). If you do not keep track of what you did right and what you did not-right and the results of each, you won't be looking at early retirement any time soon. Avoid, however, the I'm A Useless Sack drama. Focus instead on what you saw correctly, what you missed that you should not have missed, what you missed that the greatest trader on the planet would have missed, which trades were made according to plan and which weren't (along with why, so that you can avoid the same behavior in future).
 
For example, the following is what is presented at 0900 NY time for the NQ.

What do you see?

What do you do?


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For example, the following is what is presented at 0900 NY time for the NQ.

What do you see?

What do you do?


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Fun, a quiz! Let me give it a try. I don't day trade or trade the NQ, so my conclusions should be comically incorrect to some :) , enjoy.


The daily bars seem to indicate that NQ is in a general downward trend with expected limits for the day being approximately a high of 4560 and a low of 4440. Going into the day I would consider trading near these extremes after a confirmed reverse or breakout.

The hourly bar also indicates NQ is in a general downward trend for the day.

The 15 minute bar seems to indicate that the down trend is nearing an end as some chop has been entered.

The 5 minute bar is more of the same as the 15 minute bar.

The 1 minute bar indicates there is a potential breakout nearing and the most probable direction of travel in the short them is up.

At this point in time, I would conclude the best play to make would to be to set a buy order at around 4506 in the NQ, since it is likely to retrace down around there and continue up a bit, but I would not enter this trade for two reasons:

1. The overall trend is downward and there is little evidence of an uptrend beginning since we are simply on the high side of some chop. In addition to this, we are right in the middle of the expected trading range for the day, so the price is just as likely to go down as it is go up from here.

2. There appears to be a level of resistance at about 4515. I do not trade NQ so maybe this is my ignorance showing, but to me 4506 to 4515 is not a gain worth trading.
 
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db

A question if I may with regard to the post 1 example.

You say: "The second step is to determine one's place in the current trend. If we zoom in on the last leg, from June '13, we see that price is having issues with 3600: Yes, it may bust through the upper limit of the channel and begin an even more severe uptrend. But according to Auction Market Theory (later), it is more likely to visit at least the median of the channel, again, and perhaps even make it to the lower limit of the channel."


At the next stage: "Yes, the bigger picture implies weakness. But we don't have to make judgements. The demand lines (lines that track demand)are broken, which tells us that in this timeframe, 11 trading days, price is in fact weak, and we ought to be looking for a short."

The short comes along but why is a long then taken when the more likely event is a return to at least the median?

So far nq is concerned I see a strong move on the daily which retraces to halfway (a level not a million miles from the previous swing highs) with increased demand bringing it back speedily above that level on pokes below. Demand either reduces or meets highers supply when it gets back above halfway - latterly at earlier levels - and I'd be preparing for a significant move one way or the other. Nothing in the lower timeframes suggest to me that might be happening yet..
 
db

A question if I may with regard to the post 1 example.

......

The short comes along but why is a long then taken when the more likely event is a return to at least the median?

Rules. And a beginner is not likely to be able to assess the probabilities of one thing happening over another. Nor, as the SLA is a primer, should he be expected to. By the same token, the damaged trader isn't expected to assess probabilities as he is most likely to have been generally incompetent in doing so; otherwise he wouldn't be damaged. Taking the long is merely a postponement. It ensures that the intended audience will not suffer a loss due to an unanticipated reversal and that they will eventually end up on the correct side. The fact that price couldn't get through that last swing high should give them added confidence in the weakness scenario and relax them into the subsequent short.

When I wrote this, the charts were done in real time. That's why they don't look as pretty as the charts usually found in trading books, where everything always works out according to the author's agenda. But it is in real time that the rules are of paramount importance. In hindsight one can look back and see if there might have been an opportunity to fudge, but this is not recommended; it just prolongs the process.

The PA trader who has moved beyond all this, however, may feel confident in placing his stop above the Danger Point and leaving the trade alone, allowing it to reach at least the median of the channel. Anyone else, however, would most likely have severe gastrointestinal difficulties and be unable to see the screen through the flop sweat.
 
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