I have found the Holy Grail indicator for the Dow Jones - 100% right so far

[batsonar]

By risk, I was referring to the size of your stop loss in relation to the size of your account. If you're just testing out a system, why are you bragging about 'making' £22K. Plus, you weren't actually testing your system because by your own admission, the trade was taken by 'gut instinct'!

I'm not bragging about making £22k. All I want to see is my system making consistent profits in real time. All I want to do is to help my fellow traders in the future. When I said "gut" instinct it was based on one of my indicators going flat which most often in back testing shows a change in direction on the Dow Jones. Also the Dow had hit a "pivot point" resistance level of 31,198 on my charts. Perhaps "gut" instinct was the wrong word to use. There is good reason why I went "Short".

 

[batsonar]

Have yo tried backtesting the grail could save time of demo trading if proves unsuccessful.

I have adjusted the settings and parameters on my indicators to give the best possible signals in backtesting. Its not perfect but as near to it as possible. I just need to trade in real time now to test the system. The Dow Jones had really been "range bound" the past 2 months so I am not finding trading with my signals that easy.

 

[Dowser]

I'm not bragging about making £22k. All I want to see is my system making consistent profits in real time. All I want to do is to help my fellow traders in the future. When I said "gut" instinct it was based on one of my indicators going flat which most often in back testing shows a change in direction on the Dow Jones. Also the Dow had hit a "pivot point" resistance level of 31,198 on my charts. Perhaps "gut" instinct was the wrong word to use. There is good reason why I went "Short".

Ok, good luck with it

 

[batsonar]

Ok, good luck with it

I will be posting my mistakes and losses in trading as well as my successful trades. I need to be honest so that everyone can evaluate if my system works or not. I don't know how its going to work out as time goes on.

 

[Dowser]

I will be posting my mistakes and losses in trading as well as my successful trades. I need to be honest so that everyone can evaluate if my system works or not. I don't know how its going to work out as time goes on.

Ok, with this in mind, could I suggest you post the trades in realtime and include your stop loss (if you use one) and also consider using a solid risk and money management strategy. I'm watching with interest...

 

[BigDeal]

The other thing you need to do is use any demo account as you would use with real funds, as it must mirror your planned real trading as closely as possible. Don't use large values in demo to make you feel good.

 

[0FXTrader0]

I would invest a weeks wages into an account, so you get an idea of trading real money.

 

[batsonar]

The other thing you need to do is use any demo account as you would use with real funds, as it must mirror your planned real trading as closely as possible. Don't use large values in demo to make you feel good.

I think you are right in saying and that it is wise not to be using large values of CFD contracts. I will probably stick to 50 contracts or less just to test the system out.

 

[batsonar]

Dow Jones closed at 30,996 -179.03 (-0.57%) on the 22nd January 2021. I am using 9 indicators to establish a buy or sell signal. 3 indicators are showing bearish signs. 6 indicators have crossed the zero line into the red and have given "Sell" (Short) signals . I have decided to go "Short" (50 CFD contracts) on the Dow and entered (Dow futures) at 30,899 with a stop loss at 31,200 which is just above the last high. Potential loss is £11,036 if stop loss is triggered.

 

[Dowser]

Dow Jones closed at 30,996 -179.03 (-0.57%) on the 22nd January 2021. I am using 9 indicators to establish a buy or sell signal. 3 indicators are showing bearish signs. 6 indicators have crossed the zero line into the red and have given "Sell" (Short) signals . I have decided to go "Short" (50 CFD contracts) on the Dow and entered (Dow futures) at 30,899 with a stop loss at 31,200 which is just above the last high. Potential loss is £11,036 if stop loss is triggered.

£11k is 15% of your account, that's a huge chunk for one trade!

 

[batsonar]

£11k is 15% of your account, that's a huge chunk for one trade!

I always have a problem knowing where to put my stop loss. What would you suggest then?

 

[Dowser]

I always have a problem knowing where to put my stop loss. What would you suggest then?

It's not the position of your stop loss that's the problem, it's the size of your trade. I'd suggest risking just 1% of your capital per trade - so if 50 contracts = 15%, then 3 contracts = 1%.

 

[0FXTrader0]

But if he has found the ''Grail'' which is 100% correct...why not risk 100% of account per trade. Risking 1% of account per trade is for non-possessors of the grail.

 

[Dowser]

But if he has found the ''Grail'' which is 100% correct...why not risk 100% of account per trade. Risking 1% of account per trade is for non-possessors of the grail.

You make a very good point and if you did go 'all in' you'd very quickly find out whether or not you were indeed in possession of the Holy Grail...

 

[0FXTrader0]

If traded 100% risk and successfully proved the Holy Grail existed. The more important question would be how to stop the market or others discovering its holiness and arbing the grails edge out of existence. In The Man Who Solved The Market this point is discussed. Which brings me to the point that Renaissance is only right just over 50% of their trades.

 

[batsonar]

I decided to close my "Short" position on my Trading212 practice account with a loss of £312 because I am not happy with the current trading conditions at the moment as I will explain. Plus it looked like the Dow was going to bounce off the 31,000 level so I got out. If you look at the chart below you will see the Dow Jones appears to be trading within a "narrow corridor" of a "pivot point" resistance level of 31,198 and a "pivot point" support level of 30,721. This could go on for some time. Unless it breaks out to the upside or downside of these levels I don't think I will trade the Dow.

I never blame my indicators for failed moves. That's all indicators do is indicate the possible coming direction of the Dow Jones. When the move doesn't follow through its not the fault of the indicators.

 

[BigDeal]

I never blame my indicators for failed moves. That's all indicators do is indicate the possible coming direction of the Dow Jones. When the move doesn't follow through its not the fault of the indicators.

Is this starting to tell you that, therefore, the markets are not just purely mathematical, as you first suggested?

 

[batsonar]

Is this starting to tell you that, therefore, the markets are not just purely mathematical, as you first suggested?

The universe doesn't just have some mathematical properties but all mathematical properties including the stock market. The universe is governed by the mathematical laws of physics. There is a hidden mathematical and predictable order to the stock market but no one has found it yet because it looks random but it isn't. Order exists everywhere in the universe and in life on earth. Search on YouTube the "mathematical universe" and be amazed.

 

[0FXTrader0]

Read ''The Man Who Solved The Market''. There the best performing hedge fund 'RenTec'. Run by math geeks and there trade success rate is just over 50%.

 

[postman]

But if he has found the ''Grail'' which is 100% correct...why not risk 100% of account per trade. Risking 1% of account per trade is for non-possessors of the grail.

I get the feeling you're not taking this thread seriously, your doubting God here 😉