[HOWTOINVEST] Buying Darwins on a dip

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Muiris

Member
95 163
Let's consider the resul of one month as random as a coinflip.
I'l be happy when people stop talking about coinflips here or roulette or anything else besides trading.

there are 3000 active darwins. go study them in relation to buying highs or dips and make an analysis
 
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CavaliereVerde

Established member
678 987
Ok but the comparison is useful to understand the differences.
The ups and downs of darwins are pretty random but the difference is what is behind.
Traders have emotions while coins do not have, the state of mind of a trader after 3 green months is different for the state of mind after 3 red months.
Let's consider also the rules of the ecosystem.
ZXW was much more visible whe it was on highs than now, because of return/Dscore/AUM.
This is the reason why often buy ASAP = buy above average.
 

Pure Pip Producer

Well-known member
490 256
Degree of importance of entering a financial market : Almost none


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Degree of importance of exiting a financial market : Highly Absolute

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A coin flips system can be only used to train our brain to exit the market by fighting against a randomness enter. Results of this exercise appears pretty quickly on our equity curve.

The Champions' League Level can be achieved after 2 years training/suffering with real money.
 
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Gargamel

Active member
180 349
Moderator,please transfer last post of PPP where it belongs.This is a thread about entering darwins during DD.Also it would be useful to merge his mega thread in sub-forum about Darwinex with the thread about darwin PDC.After that all promotional activity can be contained in that single thread .
 

Gargamel

Active member
180 349
The only darwins where I would be satisfied with shallow DDs as entry points would be scalpers.But real scalpers with alpha(edge),not some 'Leverage artists' masking their risk with various ways to use leverage until some day ugly truth comes out or scalpers trading without SL ;).
You need long enough track-record to be sure scalper is disciplined,by that time he might already have too much AuM and Divergence problems.Catch 22
 
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CavaliereVerde

Established member
678 987
Short term results are mostly random but Darwinex and other brokers show investors a non random sample of trackrecords but the luckiest.
Even when it is good stuff it is presented as invincible.
Those charts and articles by SKforex are very educational.
After a DD investors have a more realistic picture.
Brokers make money mostly from dumb investors with unrealistic expectations.
 
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CavaliereVerde

Established member
678 987
SUGinvestors.png

As we can see tha dumb money entered just after a lucky streak of green months, dreaming 30% per year and half of them exited after only 10% DD.
Smart money is still there but they are only 50/150 .
The main reason it is easier to make money with darwinia, dumb investors.
 
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Gargamel

Active member
180 349
Those charts and articles by SKforex are very educational.
I posted those links to his blog so that people who think I am inventing stuff can read from smart guy with very long and verifiable track-record.His top darwin is beautiful example of natural/realistic track-record and benefit of entering on DD.I wonder how many people actually clicked on those links :sleep:.
 
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CavaliereVerde

Established member
678 987
How many investors were investing UYZ before this lucky streak of 2020 ?
50 .... and everything makes sense! :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO:
 
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TrungLN

Active member
147 215
Also, on a dip you never know if the trader/strategy are burned out or is normal. It's riskier.
For this point, I think we can.
Basically, by comparing with the maximum drawdown and the usual drawdown of a darwinian, we can estimate the characteristic of the current DD.
Of course, we can not know the future, current DD might last longer and become new max DD.
But, investors can base on above and determine good entry.
Ex: Max DD of THA in 6 years is 10%.
It means all future DD within 10% is normal situation.
Smart investors can wait for normal DD of THA around 5-10% and enter.
Stop loss can be +10% DD. (15-20%).
 

FXforfun

Junior member
27 42
@TrungLN No question about that. Anytime you're talking of Drawins as THA with 6 years history and its returns, I'd enter blind on it, at any time; up or down, my friend
 
 
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