How would you play this setup?

[hampy]

Neo, it seems I was one of the few who did see Mr.Marcus's first post, an interesting view of the markets i thought!
In what way though was his analysis only half right, I didnt print it off so cant go back to check, but as I recall he called the price action that followed pretty much spot on.

Also whilst you were not pleased that the thread became derailed at one stage, I'm sure there are many who would much appreciate your take on 'standard TA' and how you would
have traded it.

Cheers H

 

[Neoripley]

You are out of order making accusations as to the motives of mr.marcus.

You ought not to boast about your own motives as you have not done the work required to be successful in this profession -

How do you know this??? You don't know me! It is you who is out of order and incredibly rude.

- you have not earned the right to teach or give advice, and would do better to help yourself before you can be in a position to help others.

Is your first language English? I doubt it. I have not once claimed to give advice nor to teach - I was interested only in SHARING MY EXPERIENCE of this trade set up. Go look up the meaning of that in a dictionary and get the hell off my thread!

EDIT: I receive an email everytime someone posts on this thread. Drives me nuts! Especially when it's just a rude pointless comment.

 

[Neoripley]

...i didnt realise only you were entitled to share thier market view....i invited everyone to share thier reasoning.. so everyone can learn from correct and incorrect calls alike....you contradict in nearly every post...it is blatanntly obvious that in fact it was indeed all about your ego.....enough of this drivel...work to do.

Does that include personal insults?

 

[Neoripley]

Neo, it seems I was one of the few who did see Mr.Marcus's first post, an interesting view of the markets i thought!
In what way though was his analysis only half right, I didnt print it off so cant go back to check, but as I recall he called the price action that followed pretty much spot on.

Also whilst you were not pleased that the thread became derailed at one stage, I'm sure there are many who would much appreciate your take on 'standard TA' and how you would
have traded it.

Cheers H

Thanks for the fair and unbiased view

 

[lurkerlurker]

EDIT: I receive an email everytime someone posts on this thread. Drives me nuts! Especially when it's just a rude pointless comment.

Time for another commercial break...

 

[Neoripley]

Time for another commercial break...

Red flag...

 

[hampy]

Neo, cheers for reply but still interested in how Mr M was only half right and how indeed you would have used TA to trade it.
Thanks

 

[counter_violent]

I'm still waiting to hear why neoriply thinks that volume on a forex chart has some meaning.

I can only assume from his first answer that he has no answer in which case I would suggest to newbies to check out for oneself any relationship between forex and volume.

 

[Neoripley]

Neo, cheers for reply but still interested in how Mr M was only half right and how indeed you would have used TA to trade it.
Thanks

Hi hampy, I'm not sure if it's worth posting because I've just asked the moderators to delete this entire thread. I'll try answer your questions and hopefully you'll receive the answer before they take action on this.

I don't remember exactly what mr.m said anymore but he was right in that he didn't think there was much more room for a downward move - he was referring to weak and strong hands/buyers vs sellers, etc. He was right in that he thought there would be some upward movement BUT he said he thought it would be slow and that there might not be much upside potential - THIS IS NOT A QUOTE. But fair enough, he also said he did not have enough information on the market to make a firm decision. He obviously takes many other things into consideration but that was kind of my point. He criticised the thread for being too TA, but that was the purpose of it. It was a purely TA exercise and I said so at the beginning. It's not like I posted in the Fundamental forum or anything - perhaps I should have posted in the TA section?

As for the TA:
There was a pin bar at the reversal which is a great signal to buy over the pin bar high (refer to Trader_Dante and James16 - Google the latter)
Later, there was a break of resistance confirmed by both a trendline and 20MA crossover- another signal to buy
EDIT:


btw - a very similar setup occured on the premarket S&P this morning between 7-9am.

I AM NOT TRYING TO EDUCATE OR ADVISE YOU - but I hope you find the above at least of some interest. I haven't invented any of these methods. They are well known and widely taught. If you are familiar with any of this analysis you probably would have had a natural interest in seeing it working and applied in a trade by another person. I for one enjoy seeing other people apply techniques with which I am familiar with and get a good result. And that is all I was trying to do. It was like I was trying to attract the bees but ended up attracting the flies instead.

 

[lurkerlurker]

It was like I was trying to attract the bees but ended up attracting the flies instead.

Remember, you'll always attract more flies with honey than with vinegar!

 

[Neoripley]

I'm still waiting to hear why neoriply thinks that volume on a forex chart has some meaning.

I can only assume from his first answer that he has no answer in which case I would suggest to newbies to check out for oneself any relationship between forex and volume.

I strongly recommend that newbies (or anybody) check out for themselves EVERYTHING they read here or anywhere for that matter. I verify everything I read especially on the Internet. But for goodness sake, even children know this!

As for your bleeding volume - I'll be honest, I had no idea there was no reliable volume for forex. I normally spread bet and there are no volume charts on any instruments with SB so it's not normally something I can use anyway (though I try to source it elsewhere for the Indices/shares).

I put volume and A/D on the chart which I printed off MT4 (I placed trades with the SB, not through MT4) simply because they are indicators that are independent of price.

Newbies, Forex volume is largely unreliable and is only based on number of ticks or activity - not the volume of trade. Even so, I personally find it useful as I could see it worked in this instance. BUT DON'T TAKE MY WORD FOR IT - GO VERIFY IT FOR YOURSELF!

C_V - are you happy now?

 

[lurkerlurker]

I strongly recommend that newbies (or anybody) check out for oneself EVERYTHING they read here or anywhere for that matter. I verify everything I read especially on the Internet. But for goodness sake, even children know this!

You evidently missed my point about your being in no position to recommend anything to the newbies. You are a newbie and ought not to confuse others by pretending to be otherwise and making these recommendations.

You claim to verify everything that you read, however if that was truly the case you wouldn't be mindlessly regurgitating the mainstream textbook view of the markets without bothering to apply critical thought.

 

[Neoripley]

Neorpley...i suggest we do the mods a favour...they do a great job and unpaid to boot...and dont need us adding to thier burden...im suggesting we remove our posts back to post 32....i can then go back to anonymity which probably suits both of us

Mate, to be honest I have no agenda on these forums and couldn't give a rat's _ . But if you want to do that it's fine with me.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Newbies, Forex volume is largely unreliable and is only based on number of ticks or activity - not the volume of trade. Even so, I personally find it useful as I could see it worked in this instance. BUT DON'T TAKE MY WORD FOR IT - GO VERIFY IT FOR YOURSELF!

Two apparently contradictory statements (emphasis mine). In what way did the volume "work" on this occasion and how would you use it in your analysis?

 

[lurkerlurker]

Neoripley, it is clear to me now that you are less interested in discussing the merits of any particular approach than you are with congratulating yourself because you made money on your bet.

Ordinarily, you would have got away with this, and others would have read the thread and praised you for your excellent market reading. You may even have attracted some followers. Instead you have attracted the attention one of less than a handful of members here on T2W who understand the markets.

 

[Neoripley]

You evidently missed my point about your being in no position to recommend anything to the newbies. You are a newbie and ought not to confuse others by pretending to be otherwise and making these recommendations.

You claim to verify everything that you read, however if that was truly the case you wouldn't be mindlessly regurgitating the mainstream textbook view of the markets without bothering to apply critical thought.

I am a newbie to this forum (although I joined two years ago) and I haven't posted often. That simply means I am not a serial poser er I mean poster. Hell anyone can rack up a couple of thousand posts and become a Legendary Poster. I don't normally bother with forums (and now I know why) because I don't normally have the time or inclination. I think what I'll probably do from now onis just come here occasionally to read and certainly not start any threads. EDIT: I've already deleted all of the personal info from my account.

I don't claim to be experienced, I've never said I was. But I have been spreadtrading for over two years now, often full time. I've spent thousands of hours reading and learning and developing a trading skill. I am determined to succeed to at least a modest level and have already traded at a consistently profitable level when trading with a partner last year after we had developed our own 'hedging' type strategy. But I've spoken about this before and am not going into this now. At the moment I am profitable but not to the extent I'd like because I'm having a little trouble with the drawdowns (without the reliance of a trading partner).

You can call it what you like, I could care less. But I've read some posts by newbies here who don't even know what a buy above a break of resistance is. When I read that, I occasionally will offer an opinion or tell them where they can find the answer. What is wrong with that?

 

[lurkerlurker]

I am a newbie to this forum (although I joined two years ago) and I haven't posted often. That simply means I am not a serial poser er I mean poster. Hell anyone can rack up a couple of thousand posts and become a Legendary Poster. I don't normally bother with forums (and now I know why) because I don't normally have the time or inclination. I think what I'll probably do from now onis just come here occasionally to read and certainly not start any threads.

I'm not referring to your time on T2W, I am saying that you are not in a position where you can help newbies because you are still a newbie. Putting anything on your chart which you do not understand does not help newbies. You admit you do not understand volume, or tick volume, or where it is and is not useful. Therefore you do not have any business telling newbies whether it is or is not reliable.

I don't claim to be experienced, I've never said I was.

But just experienced enough to stop listening to those who know more than you and give your own advice to people who you perceive know less.

But I have been spreadtrading for over two years now, often full time. I've spent thousands of hours reading and learning and developing a trading skill. I am determined to succeed to at least a modest level and have already traded at a consistently profitable level when I was trading with a partner last year after we had developed our own 'hedging' type strategy. But I've spoken about this before and am not going into this now. At the moment I am profitable but not to the extent I'd like because I'm having a little trouble with the drawdowns (without the reliance of a trading partner).

You can call it what you like, I could care less. But I've read some posts by newbies here who don't even know what a buy above a break of resistance is. When I read that, I occasionally will offer an opinion or tell them where they can find the answer. What is wrong with that?

What is wrong is that your opinion is uninformed, and you will do newbies no end of harm if they believe you to be experienced and become tainted by your view.

You ought not to assume that you know who you are speaking to. If your motive was truly to help newbies, then why object to the participation of mr.marcus?

It evidently has to be pointed out to you that there are people at the very top of this profession, far above you, who may have interesting contributions to share. The analysis mr.marcus posted was absolutely correct and gives information that is not only highly informative but not published in any form anywhere.

You choose to interrupt him instead of listening, but worse you deprive others of the opportunity to listen and learn by the way you have conducted yourself on this thread, making allegations and quoting people out of context. You ought to know your place- you do not understand volume or why the market moves. It is extremely rude and disrespectful to interrupt one of a handful of poeple who both has true knowledge and is generous enough to share to help others.

Finally, I note that you aspire to success at a modest level. Please do not taint others with your own mediocrity and shout down those who have the passion and drive to take it as far as they can.

 

[Neoripley]

You admit you do not understand volume, or tick volume, or where it is and is not useful. Therefore you do not have any business telling newbies whether it is or is not reliable.

I never said I don't understand volume. Where do you get that from?

What is wrong is that your opinion is uninformed, and you will do newbies no end of harm if they believe you to be experienced and become tainted by your view.

What view? What are you talking about? I've never claimed to be someone a newbie should listen to.

You ought not to assume that you know who you are speaking to. If your motive was truly to help newbies, then why object to the participation of mr.marcus?

What motivation? I am not here to help newbies! What are you talking about?? p.s. I use the term newbie loosely - clearly we see that differently.

It evidently has to be pointed out to you that there are people at the very top of this profession, far above you, who may have interesting contributions to share. The analysis mr.marcus posted was absolutely correct and gives information that is not only highly informative but not published in any form anywhere.

Firstly, of course I'm aware of that. But I don't care who the person is - if someone is rude to me I will give it straight back. I'm just amazed the guy even has the time to bother with all this in the first place.

You choose to interrupt him instead of listening, but worse you deprive others of the opportunity to listen and learn by the way you have conducted yourself on this thread, making allegations and quoting people out of context. You ought to know your place- you do not understand volume or why the market moves. It is extremely rude and disrespectful to interrupt the only person who both has true knowledge and is generous enough to share to help others.

Finally, I note that you aspire to success at a modest level. Please do not taint others with your own mediocrity and shout down those who have the passion and drive to take it as far as they can.

The only response I have to the rest of this cr*p cannot be said on a public forum. I have no interest in your opinion of me. Don't you understand that? Are you an experienced trader? Surely you must have the intelligence to understand that by now? p.s. I think you should get your nose out, mate

p.p.s. Do you really think anyone cares that much about what I have to say? You make it sound like I have a cult following or something. For goodness sake, every post/thread (of which I've deleted as many as posted) has had about 100 views and my profile about 40. I don't think for a minute that anyone has taken my posts as the gospel truth. Is there something wrong with you??????

ppps: Is it because I can write fairly articulately? Is that why you're having a go at me? Just because I can spell doesn't mean I think I'm an expert.

 

[Neoripley]

...how obscure...please find where i was rude to you and let that be that...do you read any messages in thier entirity ....you are fitting together pieces from one poster and some from another and then making up and misquoting in between...and also retracing and editing old posts convientely....a total mess.

All the above quotes come from the same post. Are you for real? Is this a joke? Here's the post in it's entirety from that lurker character:

What is wrong is that your opinion is uninformed, and you will do newbies no end of harm if they believe you to be experienced and become tainted by your view.

You ought not to assume that you know who you are speaking to. If your motive was truly to help newbies, then why object to the participation of mr.marcus?

It evidently has to be pointed out to you that there are people at the very top of this profession, far above you, who may have interesting contributions to share. The analysis mr.marcus posted was absolutely correct and gives information that is not only highly informative but not published in any form anywhere.

You choose to interrupt him instead of listening, but worse you deprive others of the opportunity to listen and learn by the way you have conducted yourself on this thread, making allegations and quoting people out of context. You ought to know your place- you do not understand volume or why the market moves. It is extremely rude and disrespectful to interrupt one of a handful of poeple who both has true knowledge and is generous enough to share to help others.

Finally, I note that you aspire to success at a modest level. Please do not taint others with your own mediocrity and shout down those who have the passion and drive to take it as far as they can.

 

[timsk]

Yo mr.marcus,
Great to see you again, although I'm sorry that your visit is just a fleeting one. Unfortunately, I too missed your chart analysis and would like to have seen it. Hope you're keeping well and contributing generously to the profits of curry houses everywhere!
Best wishes,
Tim.