how to understand the reliability of a bull candle?

PATrader

Junior member
44 2
how does one know that a bull candle is reliable to enter?

A bull candle is just a bull candle. There's no other meaning to it , except that its bullish of course. However you should really at the context its in when it formed to gauge "reliability". Is it formed near a major support ? and various other factors of your strategy.
 

rathcoole_exile

Veteren member
3,924 767
now remember PAT, heat the milk for him, but don't make it too hot

and get him a couple of Farley's rusks too please
 

Splitlink

Legendary member
10,850 1,234
how does one know that a bull candle is reliable to enter?

You read books on TA. I don't think that you have done that or you would not have offended Rathbone's intelligence with that sort of question. Ask him something that he can answer! :D
 

dotcom

Member
62 1
i thought there would be some form of reliable prediction, not just some randomness. It kind of seems like the theory of probability. It's hard to accept that the market is completely random. Is their not some fixed set up? some way of sure prediction, other than its bad habits?

after i asked this question, i started reading more on charts, so far i only know what each candles mean. But have yet to understand how to predict the next move. What does last weeks ups and downs have to do with predicting today's moves? (i think i get it now) is it just a manipulation? if things are based on fundamentals, why not just give good word and keep things up?
 

numbertea

Well-known member
257 9
It's been a while since I have posted but I needed time to test before I would be able to contribute. I was extremely hopeful that I could swing trade Nasdaq stocks with candles as my in and out signals along with a variety of other technicals and so I programmed a fairly elaborate system and backtested many setups. I was trying to profit from direction changes. I discovered that it is possible to eek out some money from the method but the drawdowns are killer and I couldn't take the heat.

Along the way I found out that trades a little longer and following established trends fits my ulcer better. I use my candle knowledge to see signs of trend degradation but my entry and exists are based on pivot lines and MAs now. I usually beat the candles to the punch this way. Best of luck to you all.
 

neil

Legendary member
5,167 748
i thought there would be some form of reliable prediction, not just some randomness. It kind of seems like the theory of probability. It's hard to accept that the market is completely random. Is their not some fixed set up? some way of sure prediction, other than its bad habits?

after i asked this question, i started reading more on charts, so far i only know what each candles mean. But have yet to understand how to predict the next move. What does last weeks ups and downs have to do with predicting today's moves? (i think i get it now) is it just a manipulation? if things are based on fundamentals, why not just give good word and keep things up?

I gather from your writing that English is not your first language but I think you are asking why you cannot predict the future from past candle formations ?
The honest answer is that if "we" knew, how to do that, we would all be rich.
The past is no guarantee of the future. We see a candle shape (pick one) and guess a direction. Sometimes it works; sometimes not : Hence stop losses.
Add psychology, favoured approaches, various technical approaches, variance of opinion among traders, lultz, con artists, and you will realise that trading is not something you pick up by osmosis but by actually doing and moulding yourself to a trading approach. This is only a portion of why candles or pitchforks do not make everyone rich but at this point I have lost interest and need some food.:)
 
  • Like
Reactions: Mr. Charts

Shakone

Senior member
2,458 665
i thought there would be some form of reliable prediction, not just some randomness. It kind of seems like the theory of probability. It's hard to accept that the market is completely random. Is their not some fixed set up? some way of sure prediction, other than its bad habits?

after i asked this question, i started reading more on charts, so far i only know what each candles mean. But have yet to understand how to predict the next move. What does last weeks ups and downs have to do with predicting today's moves? (i think i get it now) is it just a manipulation? if things are based on fundamentals, why not just give good word and keep things up?

There is a way to determine reliability (although never certainty), but it's not something you can extract from the one candle itself. You need to know so much more. And even if you can get to that point where you can know reasonably well which to take and which to not take, you'll still have a mammoth task of exits to deal with.
 

dotcom

Member
62 1
It's been a while since I have posted but I needed time to test before I would be able to contribute. I was extremely hopeful that I could swing trade Nasdaq stocks with candles as my in and out signals along with a variety of other technicals and so I programmed a fairly elaborate system and backtested many setups. I was trying to profit from direction changes. I discovered that it is possible to eek out some money from the method but the drawdowns are killer and I couldn't take the heat.

Along the way I found out that trades a little longer and following established trends fits my ulcer better. I use my candle knowledge to see signs of trend degradation but my entry and exists are based on pivot lines and MAs now. I usually beat the candles to the punch this way. Best of luck to you all.

is there a way to predict the trend degradation or do you just wait to see where it goes? and from their you look at everything else?
 
 
AdBlock Detected

We get it, advertisements are annoying!

But it's thanks to our sponsors that access to Trade2Win remains free for all. By viewing our ads you help us pay our bills, so please support the site and disable your AdBlocker.

I've Disabled AdBlock