How to make 100%

[Black Swan]

OK I've had enough of this nonsense. 100% per month consistently? Now I know you're making this up because such a method you describe would be UNTRADEABLE.

First up - when you say consistently - for how many months? Because if you started with a mere £1000 you'd be sitting on £4,000,000 in your account after 1 year.

So it's obvious to me that you have only been doing this for 1-3 months max. You cannot boast about consistency with such a short track record because there's a significant probability that it was luck.

Second - Lets say you starts with your £1000 and you have £5000 "in reserve" that you use for your so called stage 2 & 3 of your trades. Lets say you are successful for 6 months - so your account sits at £64,000 - now you have £64K trading capital - but still only £5K reserves. So what happens if you reach Stage 3? Where's the money gonna come from?

I don't know who you think you are fooling, probably the only person being fooled here is yourself with these nonsense statements and dubious mathematics and woeful money management.

Not like you to take so much time to get up to speed...

 

[Black Swan]

that smell of bull**** in the air is one that is familiar.. THE EXPERT re branded perhaps:whistling

The only way you could get more multi nic trolls is to send Peter Jackson into Broadmoor, on a recruitment drive for hump backed extras, to star in the next Lord Of The Rings film...

 

[Splitlink]

The only way you could get more multi nic trolls is to send Peter Jackson into Broadmoor, on a recruitment drive for hump backed extras, to star in the next Lord Of The Rings film...

One thing that he never learns and I thought that he might have, by now, is that talking percentage gains is like waving a red rag to the bull.

 

[meanreversion]

Going back to the days of medbs and his "Holy Grail", his premise, or opening post, was "I've discovered a 100% winning method and I'm going to prove it to you".

To give him credit, he quickly started posting live trade calls (without the mountains of verbal excrement that 4x seems to enjoy spewing). But ultimately, the thread become one where everyone took pot-shots at him all day long, because 1) his arrogance was preposterous and 2) he got wiped out several times over and then tried to modify what he had done in the past.

The thing I never understood is this - why did he bother posting? All he got was criticism and abuse, much as 4x is receiving now.

4x states that "he doesn't need t2w" yet he continues to post and take flack.

So my conclusion (as with medbs and now with 4x) is that they actually enjoy it. They are cyber-masochists. I really can't think of any other explanation..

 

[leonarda]

OK I've had enough of this nonsense. 100% per month consistently? Now I know you're making this up because such a method you describe would be UNTRADEABLE.

First up - when you say consistently - for how many months? Because if you started with a mere £1000 you'd be sitting on £4,000,000 in your account after 1 year.

So it's obvious to me that you have only been doing this for 1-3 months max. You cannot boast about consistency with such a short track record because there's a significant probability that it was luck.

Second - Lets say you starts with your £1000 and you have £5000 "in reserve" that you use for your so called stage 2 & 3 of your trades. Lets say you are successful for 6 months - so your account sits at £64,000 - now you have £64K trading capital - but still only £5K reserves. So what happens if you reach Stage 3? Where's the money gonna come from?

I don't know who you think you are fooling, probably the only person being fooled here is yourself with these nonsense statements and dubious mathematics and woeful money management.

yes, I do have a problem with the maths on his account. He states his been doing this for 3 years or so, so based on starting with $1000, over 3 years (doubling every month)that would be about $68 TRILLION dollars!! isn't that bigger than the US deficit?!

I know he'll say he has to take money out to live on etc.., but come on, just live on a shoe string for 3-4 months to build a huge account, then start taking out a tiny fraction of the account to live on.

It doesn't make sense... 4xpip, tell us where you've lost your money, or tell us you are a multi-billionaire??? which one is it?

 

[robster970]

@MR - I think there is a genuine excitement that overcomes people when they double their money using a statistically insignificant sample size. I doubt the motives are altruistic. Then as the system fails over time,the age old psych issue of not accepting it kicks in and it ends up becoming a farce and any intellectual value displayed in the thread is lost in the cacophany.

 

[Black Swan]

@MR - I think there is a genuine excitement that overcomes people when they double their money using a statistically insignificant sample size. I doubt the motives are altruistic. Then as the system fails over time,the age old psych issue of not accepting it kicks in and it ends up becoming a farce and any intellectual value displayed in the thread is lost in the cacophany.

Top post...

 

[robster970]

Top post...

I was quite pleased with getting the word cacophony in even though I managed to mispell it.

 

[forker]

I was quite pleased with getting the word cacophony in even though I managed to mispell it.

google chrome includes a built in spell checker that checks as you type.. just a tip even though it makes ones brain that little bit lazier

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Gbp/jpy120

BTW, the original post said I edited it. I messed up and hit the wrong button.

The accompanied chart shows the obvious. I used the 2-hours SD chart to at least partially prove what happens when price runs into extreme values. I alos pulbished this chart to give a conceptual view of what happens when price runs into the R levels. It not only had a strong bounce close to +3 sigma, but also had a powerful reversal off the WR1 in a time when the momentum is pointing heavily downward.

This is only the beginning. Price is returning, but general containment will be somewhere at or under 132.50.

Also, the EUR/AUD is progressing well. There will be an intra-bounce that we will witness, because of the my key area for the year at 1.4131 being hit, OS condition on the hourly, and a meeting with a "Frsh"cloud. My position was taken based on what I saw on the daily, so it would not be frugal to take this position out, but rather endure the impending bounce.

This is the 2-hour chart for GBP/JPY. This shows what will happen today. The candle hit +3 sigma, so it is coming DOWN. Watch!

This will help in showing why the Hurst cycles and standard deviation is so relative in its usage for trading.

This is a high confidence move because this is about as far as price can go, which is the +3 sigma at 132.50.
My WR1 is 132.37 which will also help in pushing price backwards.

 

[forker]

Re: Gbp/jpy120

BTW, the original post said I edited it. I messed up and hit the wrong button.

The accompanied chart shows the obvious. I used the 2-hours SD chart to at least partially prove what happens when price runs into extreme values. I alos pulbished this chart to give a conceptual view of what happens when price runs into the R levels. It not only had a strong bounce close to +3 sigma, but also had a powerful reversal off the WR1 in a time when the momentum is pointing heavily downward.

This is only the beginning. Price is returning, but general containment will be somewhere at or under 132.50.

Also, the EUR/AUD is progressing well. There will be an intra-bounce that we will witness, because of the my key area for the year at 1.4131 being hit, OS condition on the hourly, and a meeting with a "Frsh"cloud. My position was taken based on what I saw on the daily, so it would not be frugal to take this position out, but rather endure the impending bounce.

your chart is a complete mess.. something i would expect to see in a 5yr olds crayon book. there doesnt look like there is anything there that is meaningful to market context. good luck trading off this mess...

 

[Rossini]

Re: Gbp/jpy120

your chart is a complete mess.. something i would expect to see in a 5yr olds crayon book. there doesnt look like there is anything there that is meaningful to market context. good luck trading off this mess...

It is non of your concern how messy anyone's chart is. While I think the chart is slightly too confusing to my eye, my eyes aren't looking at it so is it my business? No.

bbmac's charts are for too confusing to my eye, but if they work for him fine- and I think that guy talks sense. Keeping your nose out might be a good policy here. You're not helping anyone (including yourself) by continually disrupting a thread that you have no intention of adding value to.

 

[forker]

Re: Gbp/jpy120

It is non of your concern how messy anyone's chart is. While I think the chart is slightly too confusing to my eye, my eyes aren't looking at it so is it my business? No.

bbmac's charts are for too confusing to my eye, but if they work for him fine- and I think that guy talks sense. Keeping your nose out might be a good policy here. You're not helping anyone (including yourself) by continually disrupting a thread that you have no intention of adding value to.

so i am not entitled to an opinion then... i thought this is a PUBLIC FORUM, didnt know it was a dictatorship.. and if you going to have as go at me might as well have a go at everyone else here with their opinions.. hell wouldn't this be a grand old place if everyone were to keep their opinions to themselves. in fact your very post could be contended as having no value to the thread too, wouldn't a personal message have been a better choice

 

[Rossini]

Re: Gbp/jpy120

so i am not entitled to an opinion then... i thought this is a PUBLIC FORUM, didnt know it was a dictatorship..

I've said all a wanted to say.

 

[meanreversion]

This thread is dying a slow, painful death. Wouldn't it be better as a trading journal, i.e. scrap this thread?

 

[forker]

by the way i wouldn't call a thread titled "how to make 100%" a legit thread anyway. This type of thread is just asking for ridicule and the general sense of it seems to give a semblance of that too, just look at how the contributions "including myself" have proliferated into a joke that passes the time between trades.

anyone who is even giving this guy a shred of hope in teaching them how to make 100% would be better off taking a homeless drunk to a pub and asking him for sales tips. what i find extremely amusing is the amount of people seemingly focused on his every word. perhaps its their last attempt at making a buck in this business as they cannot achieve success, or perhaps its being naive and actually believing such claims are possible and that there is a secret magic formula that they must have missed. in any outcome, this thread serves a purpose of entertainment, nothing more

 

[bbmac]

I have no idea whether the OP achieves the returns he is stating and nor do I care. My interest is in his musings/methodology are his thoughts on trend, and standard deviation as a trading tool. He has already said that he won't reveal his proprietary formula for working out his own s/r levels and that is fair enough, but I remain interested in his postings on standard devaition etc...

G/L

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Gbp/jpy120

Good question! I wish there were more quality questions like this one, because it would add to the thread.

I will say your assumption is wrong, in the possible assumption that I was going to whip out some probabilities as per previous posts. After sigma 3, it is redundant to say what the odds might be to get to 4 or 5. It's a possibility, but not practical. Therefore in looking at SD bands, the Hurst bands, etc, this is why they only contain 3.

If there was a .05% chance of it getting to 4 or 5, I still don't like those odds, so in order to answer the question, I have posted a couple of charts--daily of the EUR/AUD and the monthly of the EUR/AUD. I know there is a lot of information in the nuggets to assimilate, but I did mention the fact that upon entering a position to be aware of the TF's around you and what they are doing. The daily chart is showing how price blasted off to the +5 sigma. This was the beginning of May. The monthly chart is showing price action being contanied at -3. albeit, with downard momentum. Very dangerous situation to enter a short, just because of the monthly chart.

What we do see on the monthly is no excpetion to the rule, and that is how the individual sigma levels act as great S&R levels Eg---2 after the rise.).

The price action as witnessed on the monthly chart in Oct 2008: That hit +6, and then a strong move in reverse that has been active since then. I cannot answer what happened here without conjecture, so here goes. I don't have a yearly chart, but if by applying the formula, I could venture a guess that something was going on on the yearly. The weekly is showing that it hit +3 the same time the monthly blew out, but it is unsafe to try and backtest a mathematical indicator that is dynamic (It's safe it backtest my S&R's, because they are stationary.).

I still have not ansswered your question that I will slightly reword, "What would I do in a situation like that?" First, and you'll just have to believe me here, it's my policy to never get in the way of a freight train. That move resembled just that. I also missed the move coming back. There was considerable clamor in the chat room we had (a different one after the one disbanded in March 2008.) about where to get in, etc. I simply stayed away, because it was out of control.

Let's say I did enter it. I would have done the same thing as I did in 2009 through more money at it (Got to have the bachup plan.). There is another option, and that is to hedge the trade. In other words, make lotosd of pips while it goes against you, and then take it out, then jump out of the long with a loss, but a net gain. Dangerous? You better believe it is. This why I don't like freight trains.

One very interesting point about the move in Oct. 2008 I'd like to point out is that the circa area it peaked was my decade's R2. This does exaplin, in part, the powerful reversal. It was a measure of, once again, the tremd's range, but on the level of the deacde.

My decade's levels for 2010--2019 are available, upon request.

4x, what if say it continued to +4 then +5 sigma, at what point would you close it? and don't say the odds of +5 sigma etc.. I know my maths! if the environment has changed such that the trend really has changed then it invalidates your sigma lines. At what point do you close it out for a loss? I think stating this would help round off your nuggetts nicely, as you do state you do close some off for losses, so what's the nuggett on when?
thanks

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Gbp/jpy120

bbmac, I hope the previous post answered that. Please ask if you want additional clarification.

Also, for the rest, ignore the troublemakers like Forker and Swan. My S&R levels have always worked. But then, I am sure they are already marked by most. That has been indicative in the PM's here and g-mail.

Do you have a specific t/f from which you take signals...ie like this 2hr GJ +3 sigma eg above...also if price has hit +3 sigma band on 2hr is this not neccessarrilly the case on other t/f's ??

Thanks...

 

[4xpipcounter]

Explain my 216% last month.

Don't like the facts, then rate the thread a "1", like 5 others have, and get out of the classroom.

OK I've had enough of this nonsense. 100% per month consistently? Now I know you're making this up because such a method you describe would be UNTRADEABLE.

First up - when you say consistently - for how many months? Because if you started with a mere £1000 you'd be sitting on £4,000,000 in your account after 1 year.

So it's obvious to me that you have only been doing this for 1-3 months max. You cannot boast about consistency with such a short track record because there's a significant probability that it was luck.

Second - Lets say you starts with your £1000 and you have £5000 "in reserve" that you use for your so called stage 2 & 3 of your trades. Lets say you are successful for 6 months - so your account sits at £64,000 - now you have £64K trading capital - but still only £5K reserves. So what happens if you reach Stage 3? Where's the money gonna come from?

I don't know who you think you are fooling, probably the only person being fooled here is yourself with these nonsense statements and dubious mathematics and woeful money management.