How long did it take you to realize that you will never be profitable trading

rexlord

Junior member
36 3
I wasnt trying to be sarcastic at all. I agree with the concept
You can control your losses with robot-like discipline, never make any mistakes at all, avoid ALL market gaps against you... and still that's not enough to be profitable.

There has to be risk management AND an edge. One doesn't work without the other.

And even when there is an edge and risk management, the smaller the edge - the more your strategy relies on pure luck.

Combine a small edge with human error, slippage, occasional losses bigger than 1R - and the edge is completely gone.
 

darktone

Veteren member
3,917 1,000
Rex, you can trade in a way so that the only slippage you see is favorable. You can take and manage top n bottom plays with no confirmation. You can comfortably trade without stops.
But you have to realise and that you're not really trading the market, you're trading yourself. You'll find your edge in the mirror.
 
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rexlord

Junior member
36 3
Rex, you can trade in a way so that the only slippage you see is favorable. You can take and manage top n bottom plays with no confirmation. You can comfortably trade without stops.
But you have to realise and that you're not really trading the market, you're trading yourself. You'll find your edge in the mirror.
That's pretty deep!
I'd say once that happens (once you see your edge in the mirror) you won't necessarily need to trade at all to make money :cheesy:
 

ph_trader

Well-known member
400 6
how long toes it take to realize that i cant be a profitable trader? thats one weird question, usually if people realize it they wont even bother coming back here to answer lol, but in my 5 years maybe 6 trading im still here trying to make a decent buck out of my HF accout so i guess. i am no where realizing such thing.
 

samfarrell

Member
82 9
You can control your losses with robot-like discipline, never make any mistakes at all, avoid ALL market gaps against you... and still that's not enough to be profitable.

There has to be risk management AND an edge. One doesn't work without the other.

And even when there is an edge and risk management, the smaller the edge - the more your strategy relies on pure luck.

Combine a small edge with human error, slippage, occasional losses bigger than 1R - and the edge is completely gone.
yeah look most people who trade dont have much of an idea what they are doing. It takes years to master any discipline. People sit down to trade and think with a few charts and a trend following plan they will be profitable. They have no understanding of implied volatility, probability of a move, market liquidity.
They may as well go to the casino
 

rexlord

Junior member
36 3
how long toes it take to realize that i cant be a profitable trader? thats one weird question, usually if people realize it they wont even bother coming back here to answer lol, but in my 5 years maybe 6 trading im still here trying to make a decent buck out of my HF accout so i guess. i am no where realizing such thing.
Good point. I was probably hoping someone would prove me wrong. But so far all I am seeing is the same old story.

yeah look most people who trade dont have much of an idea what they are doing. It takes years to master any discipline. People sit down to trade and think with a few charts and a trend following plan they will be profitable. They have no understanding of implied volatility, probability of a move, market liquidity.
They may as well go to the casino
And you probably know a guy who knows a guy who is a trader who understands all these things and makes a million bucks a month. So far I've only seen people who fail as traders in the long run, even if they do succeed in other businesses.
 

dbphoenix

Legendary member
6,952 1,244
And you probably know a guy who knows a guy who is a trader who understands all these things and makes a million bucks a month. So far I've only seen people who fail as traders in the long run, even if they do succeed in other businesses.
If you limit your contacts to those you make on trading forums, then you likely won't come across many successes.

And, in the end, what difference does it make? Whether or not somebody else is successful means nothing with regard to your success or lack of it. There are only a couple of questions that matter in your situation:

1. Did you have a robust trading plan? If not, why not?

2. If so, did you have the discipline to follow it? If not, why not?

Your success or failure is entirely your responsibility, not books or DVDs or courses or vendors or brokers or even the market. If you seek to rationalize and justify your failure by looking outside yourself, you will have learned nothing.
 

samfarrell

Member
82 9
And you probably know a guy who knows a guy who is a trader who understands all these things and makes a million bucks a month. So far I've only seen people who fail as traders in the long run, even if they do succeed in other businesses.
Can i ask, how long did you spend trading ?
 

darktone

Veteren member
3,917 1,000
That's pretty deep!
I'd say once that happens (once you see your edge in the mirror) you won't necessarily need to trade at all to make money :cheesy:
Fading with stagered limits using corrections to manage size (at profit or loss) is about as easy as knocking one out. Join a trend or discovering tops n bottoms, it's all the same technically.
The other 90% is down to you emotionally and what you believe about yourself and the market. You could be sat down next to Jimmy balodimas himself as he explains it all in small words. With enough belief you could delete everthing he does and says with a single thought and go on as you are getting what youve always got. It's amazing how piphoe folks can get even when it's 1+1 obvious. The belief sows the thought and bs is born.
It's a heads up mate, people can and do make money trading. Become aware of how think and what effects this has on your trading and you have a chance.
Or, carry on as are. Who cares lol
 

piphoe

Legendary member
10,038 194
i'm still long the EUR here..

i'll leave the arcane trade philosophy to the cat:)

MEOW

hey, pussy whats the next trade?
 

rexlord

Junior member
36 3
Fading with stagered limits using corrections to manage size (at profit or loss) is about as easy as knocking one out. Join a trend or discovering tops n bottoms, it's all the same technically.
The other 90% is down to you emotionally and what you believe about yourself and the market. You could be sat down next to Jimmy balodimas himself as he explains it all in small words. With enough belief you could delete everthing he does and says with a single thought and go on as you are getting what youve always got. It's amazing how piphoe folks can get even when it's 1+1 obvious. The belief sows the thought and bs is born.
It's a heads up mate, people can and do make money trading. Become aware of how think and what effects this has on your trading and you have a chance.
Or, carry on as are. Who cares lol
Fading a large move via staggering limit orders into a position.
Example: (using round numbers only for simplicity)
Stock is at $10 - short 1000 shares
50% probability that stock goes down to $9 - exit & take profit $1000
50% probability that stock goes to $11 - use staggered limit to short another 1000 shares (now short 2000 shares at $10.5 average)

25% probability that stock goes back down to $10 - exit & take profit $1000
25% probability that stock goes up to $12 - use staggered limit to short another 1000 shares (now short 3000 shares at $11 average)

12.5% probability that stock goes back down to $11 - exit & breakeven
12.5% probability that stock goes to $13 - exit & take loss $6000

Expectancy over a large number of trades is $0
The small probability of taking a large loss will always wipe out all profits

You can play with these numbers any way you want, staggering 10 limits to enter (as opposed to only 2 in this example). You can enter and exit at any dollar amount $10.53, $11.42 etc.
The expectancy stays $0

"as easy as knocking one out"
 

darktone

Veteren member
3,917 1,000
Fading a large move via staggering limit orders into a position.
Example: (using round numbers only for simplicity)
Stock is at $10 - short 1000 shares
50% probability that stock goes down to $9 - exit & take profit $1000
50% probability that stock goes to $11 - use staggered limit to short another 1000 shares (now short 2000 shares at $10.5 average)

25% probability that stock goes back down to $10 - exit & take profit $1000
25% probability that stock goes up to $12 - use staggered limit to short another 1000 shares (now short 3000 shares at $11 average)

12.5% probability that stock goes back down to $11 - exit & breakeven
12.5% probability that stock goes to $13 - exit & take loss $6000

Expectancy over a large number of trades is $0
The small probability of taking a large loss will always wipe out all profits

You can play with these numbers any way you want, staggering 10 limits to enter (as opposed to only 2 in this example). You can enter and exit at any dollar amount $10.53, $11.42 etc.
The expectancy stays $0

"as easy as knocking one out"
That's the spirit Rex. Delete half of what was said, distort the other half with the old belief filter, slap on a couple well thumbed tarding terms and turn what was presented into something fits your narrative.
Buy 50, 40, 30 lose one at 50 ( or any other number greater than 30 ffs) repeat and and sling and manage as many units as your appetite for risk allows. As easy as knocking one out. Unless you're a...
Sorry Rex. Have just remembered how pointless this is.
Carry on as you are it is. G luck mate
 

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