how long did it take?

[oildaytrader]

Ok but I still don't get it. If you've got a sound strategy and you've backtested, you should have factored in x amount of consecutive losses. This is only a problem in terms of psychology. Human nature dictates that we need to be right, if a system can handle 30 consecutive losses and x amount of DD but you have faith in your system and 5 or so wins will make back the losses then I don't see a problem. It's only from a psychological point of view... s**t I've had 30 losses my system blows balls I' ve got to change..... that things start to go wrong.

I don't trade like this btw, I do favour a higher win rate, I'm playing devils advocate because I can see both sides.

If you get 30 consecutive losses , there is something wrong with your strategy.After 10 to 15 losses , your desire to carry on will be diminishing, you will be upset,tired and uncertain.The mind can not take it after many consecutive losses.

This is why win rate is very important.If markets become difficult, very uncertain , volatility increases, trends breakdown, set ups break down due to continuous flow of unexpected bad news,stops get hit more frequently , your hit rate will revert to 89 % across all the trades.

Your profit and loss will read like this.

Say you win 10 trades *10 points *$1,000 = $100k profit.*89% = 11,000 profit
losses 89,000 ( 10 trades * $1000*10*.89)
= NET LOSS OF 78,000

The losses on 80 trades * 20 loss *$1 per pip = $1600 *0.89 =1424 losses less profits of 176 from winning trades, = net loss of 1248

Total net losses are 78,000 + 1248 = 79,248 losses from all trades.

So stop following snake oil vendors.

 

[belekas]

Around 3 years and more then 15k hrs of screentime I'd say. Found my edge. Now there's nothing more I like then taking pips from majority of market participants who have no idea what they are doing

 

[oildaytrader]

Listen you complete ignoramus. No one is going to trade a system with a 12% win rate, except maybe you of course. However i'd happily trade a system with a 25% win rate providing my winners are large winners, got it??

In 2009 a strategy i traded LIVE, not demo like you demo boy, had a win rate of 27%, yet i was up on the year +113%. Conclusion = win rate is less important to me than amount made on my winners.

Have a good wknd spending all your demo profits.

Some old fart who never traded a live account is only making wild claims of success , without any proof.His theory shows failure.These old farts are professional traders without a few quid to buy a new pair of underwear.

 

[meanreversion]

It truly pains me to admit this, but ODDT has finally made a valid point, although it's in danger of being obscured by the rest of the tosh he spews.

Win rate IS important as it enables the trader to persevere with the strategy. Some longer term trend systems have win rates below 30 pct, and this leads to a high number of sequential losses. At which point, the strategy is tweaked/abandoned.

It might look good in backtest, but you might have to sit through several losing months - this is the tough part.

 

[meanreversion]

Backtests mean nothing , it is like looking at house prices in U K over last 10 years and expecting the rises to keep continuing.30 strategies were backtested from 2001 to 2008 , in 2009 and 2010 the results were way out.

Yup. There is no point evaluating how your strategy would have fared in the past, as the future may be different.

Therefore, you may as well ignore all historical market behaviour.

When you buy a house, it's of no importance what the price has been doing, anything can happen in the future. Just pay the asking price and move in.

What a doofus you are, ODDT.

 

[oildaytrader]

You really are quite ignorant. I guess your the sort of dunce who backtests in the hope of finding a profitable system.

If I see a profitable set up/strategy on live account or being pumped by some farts, I will back test to see how it performed in the past.I will tweak it to survive all potential historical and future market conditions and run a futuristic portfolio of strategies.

 

[meanreversion]

Backtests mean nothing , it is like looking at house prices in U K over last 10 years and expecting the rises to keep continuing.30 strategies were backtested from 2001 to 2008 , in 2009 and 2010 the results were way out.

-------------------

If I see a profitable set up/strategy on live account or being pumped by some farts, I will back test to see how it performed in the past.I will tweak it to survive all potential historical and future market conditions and run a futuristic portfolio of strategies.

Anyone spot a slight contradiction here?

 

[Marky1982]

Anyone spot a slight contradiction here?

It was an intended contradiction, like all his intended 'so called' incoherent ramblings on here. ODT is just winding everyone up on here, and i'm sure i'm not the only one to spot it. Save your energy folks.

 

[pjchalmers]

Wow what an amusing thread. Some of my currency pairs are just trending upwards this morning and my signal came at 2am so was fast asleep, pity would have made plenty. So decided to have a wander in the forum and saw this. Anyway the thread says how long did it take so I will try to cover some of the items I have read here(sometimes with a chuckle) and actually answer the reason the thread was set up for.
I have been trading for three years. It took me around 12 to 14 months to start getting into the black and since then I have increased my winnings nicely. It is true that 85% of people who trade loose money but those figures include the pros aswell. This figure mind is pretty much the same for most risk related areas like horse racing, sports betting etc. Betfair find about 10% make reasonable winnings and only 5% make lots. So pretty consistent with trading. Learn as much as you can and dont risk good money till you are more confident and have a method that you have applied and is giving consistent results. Remember there is no holy grail no matter what you read. Dont listen to people or websites when they say they have got a 90% winning system it doesnt happen. I even saw a website yesterday which said no loosing trades in 2 yrs. What a load of rubbish. I am doing really well each month now but I only have a win rate of average 50% month on month but my wins ratio is on average 3 to 4 times my losses with minimal draw down and I have small stop losses. So thats my reality and thats the sort of figure you need to get to. Yes you can have increased percentage wins but often the pips value goes down. I have found that its a bit like a cake mix too high a quantity of one often leads to poor end results, if you get the mix right the cake will always rise and taste great. There have been plenty of comments and arguments about both here. I would say both can be right under certain circumstances but I want you to think about it differently. Its not just one item you should concerntrate on like win rate it is the combination of a number of items that give you your results. Obvcourse if you have a high win ratio the chances of long loosing runs are small but this is also often negated by big loss values when you get them. The way to combat this which I do is to trade different markets with the same method, ones that dont really follow each other too much then your trading method tends to even out the losses so no big loosing runs. Anyway something to think about.

 

[Dreamer8]

traders might succeed according to the skills they have. Not fixed for everyone. I think those who have perfect knowledge take lesser time to attain their goals.