How long did it take you to realize that you will never be profitable trading

rexlord

Junior member
36 3
How long did it take you to realize that you have no edge as a retail trader?
Perhaps some came to that realization after trading for a few years
Perhaps someone got it after running backtests

How long did it take everyone to realize that over a long period of time, there isn't an edge big enough to be profitable as a retail trader?

And how many are still delusional and think "they almost got it" and they will start being profitable after a few tweaks?
 

jeffre4

Experienced member
1,161 157
bit like asking a losing poker player he will say its gambling and you cannot win phil ivey etc would say different. i take it you lost. i am still delusional after 7 yrs 7 profitable years thank you very much
 
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DionysusToast

Legendary member
5,963 1,497
How long did it take you to realize that you have no edge as a retail trader?
Perhaps some came to that realization after trading for a few years
Perhaps someone got it after running backtests

How long did it take everyone to realize that over a long period of time, there isn't an edge big enough to be profitable as a retail trader?

And how many are still delusional and think "they almost got it" and they will start being profitable after a few tweaks?
Took you 2 years by the look of it.
 

donaldduke

Experienced member
1,665 251
There is an average duration posters are active on Trade2win.

When they give up on trading they tend to stop posting here as well.

So you wont get many answers to your question, except maybe from the guys who just seem to post off topic stuff now.


BTW you dont need a big edge, even a small one will be enough to make a good profit If you can learn to trade size.
 
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dbphoenix

Legendary member
6,927 1,233
BTW you dont need a big edge, even a small one will be enough to make a good profit If you can learn to trade size.
True. That plus cutting one's losses short and letting one's winners run, perhaps the most common flaw in unsuccessful traders. And not having a robust plan to begin with, in which case cutting one's losses short doesn't accomplish much beyond postponing the inevitable.

If one hasn't found an edge in six months to a year, he's not trying and really ought to just hang it up.
 

rexlord

Junior member
36 3
bit like asking a losing poker player he will say its gambling and you cannot win phil ivey etc would say different. i take it you lost. i am still delusional after 7 yrs 7 profitable years thank you very much
that's great.
just one question - outperforming baseline drift all 7 years in a row (net of broker fees)?

Took you 2 years by the look of it.
that's correct.

There is an average duration posters are active on Trade2win.

When they give up on trading they tend to stop posting here as well.

So you wont get many answers to your question, except maybe from the guys who just seem to post off topic stuff now.


BTW you dont need a big edge, even a small one will be enough to make a good profit If you can learn to trade size.
this is a very good point about people who stopped trading probably not being active on the forums

position size is going to be always consistent per risk management model of your choice, unless we are talking about discretionary sizing based on "how the trade feels" which I have a hard time buying
 

rexlord

Junior member
36 3
True. That plus cutting one's losses short and letting one's winners run, perhaps the most common flaw in unsuccessful traders. And not having a robust plan to begin with, in which case cutting one's losses short doesn't accomplish much beyond postponing the inevitable.

If one hasn't found an edge in six months to a year, he's not trying and really ought to just hang it up.
I agree. Most traders keep tweaking their Plan because that's what we've always been taught: having an idea that makes sense plus a solid plan.
But what is actually much more important is defining and measuring an edge before you can put together a plan to exploit it.
People buy at some line or moving average, then the stock bounces and gets to their profit target (at some other line). Then they believe they've found an edge and make a Plan around that... when in reality it is highly highly likely that it was pure chance and those support lines or moving averages just happened to be on the chart when they looked at it.
Then people analyze their trades thinking they made mistakes on the losing trades, when in reality there wasn't any edge there to begin with and the winning trades were purely random (and/or there was actually a different type of edge in some of them, which the trader doesn't understand).

You have the volatility contraction edge (pre-breakout or pullback in a trend) and you have the volatility expansion edge (shorting pops). Without getting into too much detail, those are the only edges you have to work with in directional trading. These edges are very small. There isn't much (if any) room for error to work with AND there is way too much reliance on pure chance due to how small those edges are.

Another thing is that it's impossible to keep ALL of your losses to 1R. If you trade for at least a few years, occasionally you will have losses that are way way more than 1R.

You're not thinking about staging a comeback are you Rexxie?
I am not sure yet.

I would love to be proven wrong but so far all I've seen was:
1. people who are not profitable but think "they almost got it"
2. people who exaggerate their profitability and their knowledge and make money on subscription services, marketing, writing, etc.
 

dunitatlsatrodney

Member
63 22
I agree. Most traders keep tweaking their Plan because that's what we've always been taught: having an idea that makes sense plus a solid plan.
But what is actually much more important is defining and measuring an edge before you can put together a plan to exploit it.
People buy at some line or moving average, then the stock bounces and gets to their profit target (at some other line). Then they believe they've found an edge and make a Plan around that... when in reality it is highly highly likely that it was pure chance and those support lines or moving averages just happened to be on the chart when they looked at it.
Then people analyze their trades thinking they made mistakes on the losing trades, when in reality there wasn't any edge there to begin with and the winning trades were purely random (and/or there was actually a different type of edge in some of them, which the trader doesn't understand).

You have the volatility contraction edge (pre-breakout or pullback in a trend) and you have the volatility expansion edge (shorting pops). Without getting into too much detail, those are the only edges you have to work with in directional trading. These edges are very small. There isn't much (if any) room for error to work with AND there is way too much reliance on pure chance due to how small those edges are.

Another thing is that it's impossible to keep ALL of your losses to 1R. If you trade for at least a few years, occasionally you will have losses that are way way more than 1R.



I am not sure yet.

I would love to be proven wrong but so far all I've seen was:
1. people who are not profitable but think "they almost got it"
2. people who exaggerate their profitability and their knowledge and make money on subscription services, marketing, writing, etc.
Stay away mate!:)
 

dbphoenix

Legendary member
6,927 1,233
I agree. Most traders keep tweaking their Plan because that's what we've always been taught: having an idea that makes sense plus a solid plan.
But what is actually much more important is defining and measuring an edge before you can put together a plan to exploit it.
People buy at some line or moving average, then the stock bounces and gets to their profit target (at some other line). Then they believe they've found an edge and make a Plan around that... when in reality it is highly highly likely that it was pure chance and those support lines or moving averages just happened to be on the chart when they looked at it.
Then people analyze their trades thinking they made mistakes on the losing trades, when in reality there wasn't any edge there to begin with and the winning trades were purely random (and/or there was actually a different type of edge in some of them, which the trader doesn't understand).

You have the volatility contraction edge (pre-breakout or pullback in a trend) and you have the volatility expansion edge (shorting pops). Without getting into too much detail, those are the only edges you have to work with in directional trading. These edges are very small. There isn't much (if any) room for error to work with AND there is way too much reliance on pure chance due to how small those edges are.

Another thing is that it's impossible to keep ALL of your losses to 1R. If you trade for at least a few years, occasionally you will have losses that are way way more than 1R.
All correct, except for the suggestion that the edges are small and that large losses are necessary. What is most important here, though, is that the trader compile and analyze his data in order to determine whether or not he has an edge to begin with. Only then does developing a plan to exploit that edge make sense.
 

IFeelFree

Active member
109 19
I would love to be proven wrong but so far all I've seen was:
1. people who are not profitable but think "they almost got it"
2. people who exaggerate their profitability and their knowledge and make money on subscription services, marketing, writing, etc.
Yes, these kinds of folks tend to dominate this forum. However, there are some experienced traders here who make money, and a few clever individuals who are using sophisticated algorithmic trading strategies. (I've been private messaging with a couple of them.) I'm using a statistical arbitrage approach that I've developed myself which has made me 32% return in the past 9 months, trading only once per week. Time will tell whether this pans out in the long run. In any case, unless you are confident you have an edge, it's probably best not to trade.