How I See the 50% rule

[tomorton]

It is touching when people think they notice something in the markets most others didn't. Thing about it is you are going to always be wrong about that. Because of this, it puts me to sleep when people talk about set-ups, methods or some bollox they think they have noticed on a chart. If you think you found something on a chart, assume that you haven't.

But I have.

 

[hwsteele]

After looking at more charts it's starting to look like the truly important part is not the strength of the first move in the 50:50 but just how important the top or bottom is you start watching from.

The thing I am noticing is when you have a strong move as part one you tend to have a smaller retracement. When you have a weaker move the retracement is much larger. Sometimes 75% or more.
The above goes without saying.

When you have the weak "impulsive" first half it seems to be more likely to turn out to be a 67:33.
Still tradable I believe.

 

[fantastic4]

Hey HWsteele, I would call this an ambush play and the 50- 61 the ambush zone. There are a variety of ambushes and methods for playing them. Can I be bad and spam the site, I just don't want to type it all over again as I've had the discussion before here:


http://www.freetradingvideos.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1425


I also mention a modified version.

The ambush is my the center of my trading plan I'm developing, yes I'm a paper trader with no experience with real money, and I would love to talk more about it .

 

[FXSCALPER2]

But I have.

No, you haven't. If Paul Todor Jones (I hate doing this 'god-of-trading' bull, but there you go), came here and said he has a method to make money and someone offered me a bacon sandwich and I had to choose, I would choose the sandwich.

 

[tomorton]

No, you haven't...

Well, I have.

 

[candles]

not sure what your saying FXscalper? Are you saying that no chart setups work and that its impossible to make money from the markets?
ta

 

[FXSCALPER2]

not sure what your saying FXscalper? Are you saying that no chart setups work and that its impossible to make money from the markets?
ta

I am saying there are no secrets or some system to be found from charts.

 

[hwsteele]

It is touching when people think they notice something in the markets most others didn't. Thing about it is you are going to always be wrong about that. Because of this, it puts me to sleep when people talk about set-ups, methods or some bollox they think they have noticed on a chart. If you think you found something on a chart, assume that you haven't.

Well the fact of the matter is you are wrong. It is very easy to notice something in the markets that "MOST" others didn't. Simply because "MOST" others are not willing to put the time in to look. Now what gets "discovered" by anyone has most certenly been "discovered" before by some else. That I believe completely. The whole "nothing new under the sun" idea rings very true to the markets.

I can't tell you how many times I have noticed something about the price action or timing of the market only to read or see something days, weeks, or even years later about the same thing. Most of the time it was around LONG before I noticed it. There have also been times when I would read something and just not understand it's value 'til I rediscovered it on my own. I believe if you find it for your self from studing the charts you will understand it much better in most cases.

I don't believe there is anything new left to be discovered about the markets. Someone some place has already noticed. I do believe that each and every person can dicover and understand something new to them for quite some time.
Funny thing is that in truth, you don't have to understand much to win in trading.

I hope that you simply miss worded what you wrote:

"it puts me to sleep when people talk about set-ups, methods or some bollox they think they have noticed on a chart. If you think you found something on a chart, assume that you haven't."

People have been finding things on charts for a long time that have worked very well.

Now if you ment to say something along the lines of:

it puts me to sleep when people talk about finding new set-ups or methods or some bollox they think they have noticed on a chart. If you think you found something new that no one has ever seen before on a chart, assume that you haven't.

I would have to say I agree with you 100%

I am saying there are no secrets or some system to be found from charts.

Again, I believe you are very wrong unless you meant to add the word "new".

 

[hwsteele]

Hey HWsteele, I would call this an ambush play and the 50- 61 the ambush zone. There are a variety of ambushes and methods for playing them. Can I be bad and spam the site, I just don't want to type it all over again as I've had the discussion before here:


http://www.freetradingvideos.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1425


I also mention a modified version.

The ambush is my the center of my trading plan I'm developing, yes I'm a paper trader with no experience with real money, and I would love to talk more about it .

Have you done any paper trading at all with it?

 

[dilesh23]

anyone know how to spell the word gibberish ? is it two BS's or one ?

 

[hwsteele]

anyone know how to spell the word gibberish ? is it two BS's or one ?

Of what are you speaking?

 

[dilesh23]

YouTube - The 50% Rule

maybe it will sound more familiar in an american accent

 

[hwsteele]

YouTube - The 50% Rule

maybe it will sound more familiar in an american accent

Yep. Should have just keeped my mouth shut.

 

[hwsteele]

Hmm, I think i will open a micro FX account and start a trading log thread with this method!!

 

[dick_dastardly]

Yep. Should have just keeped my mouth shut.

hwsteele, this thread may be of interest to you.



dd

 

[hwsteele]

hwsteele, this thread may be of interest to you.



dd

Not sure are you trying to make me feel better or cry?

 

[dick_dastardly]

Not sure are you trying to make me feel better or cry?

I suspected this thread was moving towards ground that may have already been covered that's all.


dd

 

[hwsteele]

I suspected this thread was moving towards ground that may have already been covered that's all.


dd

Yes i think you are correct. I'm thinking not much more good will come from this thread.
I do plan on trading on a micro account with only the 50:50 system that I have been working on. I will open that account after the new year for tax purposes and post in a tread for that.

 

[Ponce]

Yes i think you are correct. I'm thinking not much more good will come from this thread.
I do plan on trading on a micro account with only the 50:50 system that I have been working on. I will open that account after the new year for tax purposes and post in a tread for that.

You are correct in your premise.Now make a tweak or two and you are set.First,take time out of your charts.A range chart,with HA candles.If you are a ES fan,experiment with pts per candle.I would start with 1 ES point per candle. If you can dump the OHLC and convert to candlesticks it will make it easier.Post a chart when you can if you would like input?

 

[Ponce]

Trading this strategy gives higher than 40% probability,and a w/l over 4.
1.0 math is Godzilla elite trader status,and you are right in your premise.Dont give up on it yet.