FAQ How Difficult is it to Trade?

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tomorton

Legendary member
7,308 975
Well done philhackett. Good strategies are simple. Following trends is profitable. Trading is boring.

I have encouraged traders on T2W and elsewhere to forget about endless arguments to do with posting trading statements and live calls to "prove" you're profitable - just be honest and open and publish your trading strategy. Then we can all see who's a winner and who's a fantasist.
 
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Kear

Member
64 5
Anyone who writes as many posts as this individual isn't a trader.

Trading is simple. Use 3x13x39 as follows;

A Simple Moving Average Trading System

3x13X39 = Profit
I want to address a question commonly asked by those who are computer phobic, techno confused and Internet allergic, "What is a good simple system to follow, to get in and out of markets?".
Most people are comfortable with the herd. Such good folk are most comfortable with a trend following system. I am ill at ease in a pack and downright anxious when everybody and his dog are comfortably saying the same thing. I am, therefore, drawn to oscillators to anticipate the end of popular perception. Oscillators also give an insight into the cyclical nature of markets. Being obsessed with market structure and somewhat compulsive in my quest for efficiency my ways are not 'comfortable' for many. So to get back to basics for those not able or willing to devote the time to market study that I do here is a way to handle your market study and trading decisions.
Remember the numbers 3 x 13 x 39 = Profit
Simple daily moving averages of 3,13 and 39 can keep you in and out of markets fairly efficiently and profitably, (in any time frame actually). I will show you how.
Some basic principles to hang on to are:
· The market moves in long (secular) trends which may last years, e.g. the present equity bull market dates from 1982.
· Intermediate trends lasting many months, even a couple of years or so.
· Short term trends lasting weeks or months.
· Trade intermediate trends in either direction.
· Trade short term trends only in the direction of the intermediate trend.
Proxies:
· 3 Day MA - a proxy for price
· 13 Day MA - a proxy for the short term trend (a moving trend line)
· 39 Day MA - a proxy for the intermediate trend (a moving trend line)
· 40 week, 200 day MA - a proxy for the secular trend (a moving Trend line)
The Basics of MAs
MAs lag market reversals at tops and bottoms, the larger the MA the longer the lag period, the shorter the MA the shorter the lag but the more frequent the whipsaws. MAs work well when markets trend but get frequently whipsawed when they are in a range.
Therefore, trade trends with the MAs but do not trade ranges using MAs. Just stand aside and be patient until a new trend emerges.
The intermediate trend is in the direction of the 39 MA which acts like a moving trend line. If the 39 MA is pointing up then the intermediate trend is up, if down the trend is down. If the 39 MA is horizontal the market is in a range, from which a trend will, sooner or later, emerge.
Simple Trading Rules
1. When the 39 MA is moving up buy when the 3 MA crosses up over the 13 MA. and/or when the 3 MA crosses above the 39 MA.. When the 13 MA crosses above the 39 MA consider adding to your long position. Exit and stand aside when the 3 crosses back below the 13 MA..
2. When the 39 MA is moving down sell short when the 3 MA crosses below the 13 MA. and/or when the 3 MA crosses below the 39 MA.. When the 13 MA crosses below the 39 MA consider adding to your short position. Exit and stand aside when the 3 MA crosses back up over the 13 MA.
3. Only initiate trades in the opposite direction of the intermediate trend when the 3 MA crosses above or below the 39 MA, preferably after the 39 MA has already changed direction.
4. This 3:13 MA crossover will keep you trading in the trend with only a small lag and on the sidelines during corrections. The lag only becomes more substantial at reversals of the intermediate trend (a 3:39 crossover), a small price to pay at these uncertain times of trend transition.


Aids to Interpretation
· When the 3:13 crossovers occur at some distance from the 39 MA then you are 'likely' dealing with a short-term correction (even though it can be substantial) to the 39 MA.
· If the 3:13 & 39 MAs are close and converging before crossing over you are 'likely' dealing with an intermediate (or significant) correction of the trend or reversal.

Make 3 SMA thick black; 13 SMA red and 39 pink to copy my display.

Trade the black 3 SMA and ignore candles. You will become wealthy quite quickly.

Finally. Anyone who writes frequent posts isn't a trader. Ignore these dangerous people. Traders rarely have time to write posts.

I recommend that you join the https://www.sta-uk.org/

As ever

Phil
It's not just about Indicators Phil, it's about the person, the market is never wrong, only we as traders can be wrong, and that comes back to your personality type and what you can cope with, how you see it or don't see it. I know many traders who have great systems that screw up, and had they stuck to their plan would have made a lot of money, but their belief in what could happen changed everything.:)
 
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Kear

Member
64 5
I can't get my friends interested. I show them my charts, look at this if you bought down here and sold up there, you made 300 bucks in 20 mins!! Or something like that..you get it. They are unimpressed...baffles me to no end. No curiosity, no lightbulbs go off in their heads ..nothing but blank stares and disinterest. :|

That's the reason I'm on here to find someone to talk to about the wonderful and interesting world of trading. Avg Joe friend doesn't care and isn't interested in the least.
When people have been stung by others, and another comes along offering a quick way to make a buck, they will never believe that anything could be that good so they dismiss it. Having said that, by walking away they may just have saved themselves a heap of pain and money by not acting. There is nothing exciting about trading, its boring, but l'll probably never quit despite that fact
 

Kear

Member
64 5
“80 percent of success is due to psychology—mindset, beliefs, and emotions—and only 20 percent is due to strategy—the specific steps needed to accomplish a result”

https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=80+20+psychology
I think it depends on your personality type, you can have many people trading the same system, and yet only a small percentage succeed whilst the rest fail. If everyone traded the same system, and this was the outcome, then the small percentage traded what they saw and stuck to a plan, and the chances are that the ones who failed allowed their belief system to interrupt the process of a winning strategy.
 

Kear

Member
64 5
Making a living from trading is very difficult and not suitable for everyone. I believe people can develop the necessary skills and discipline, but perhaps not everyone is willing to dedicate the time and effort. How many of you trade for a living?

Spot on. The hard work and effort required is way beyond most could ever imagine.
 

Kear

Member
64 5
It is hard to depend on Forex for living because it is a very risky business I have ever seen.
Extremely risky, and day trading is not for me, l've tried, but your chances increase if you choose H1 minimum time frame, preferable H4 and daily. It can be done, but requires a ton of patience and small size for which returns are small, until you grow your acc slowly. It's the impatience that makes us all go backwards, and too large of a size.
 

Mactheriverrat

Member
60 5
Anyone who writes as many posts as this individual isn't a trader.

Trading is simple. Use 3x13x39 as follows;

A Simple Moving Average Trading System

3x13X39 = Profit
I want to address a question commonly asked by those who are computer phobic, techno confused and Internet allergic, "What is a good simple system to follow, to get in and out of markets?".
Most people are comfortable with the herd. Such good folk are most comfortable with a trend following system. I am ill at ease in a pack and downright anxious when everybody and his dog are comfortably saying the same thing. I am, therefore, drawn to oscillators to anticipate the end of popular perception. Oscillators also give an insight into the cyclical nature of markets. Being obsessed with market structure and somewhat compulsive in my quest for efficiency my ways are not 'comfortable' for many. So to get back to basics for those not able or willing to devote the time to market study that I do here is a way to handle your market study and trading decisions.
Remember the numbers 3 x 13 x 39 = Profit
Simple daily moving averages of 3,13 and 39 can keep you in and out of markets fairly efficiently and profitably, (in any time frame actually). I will show you how.
Some basic principles to hang on to are:
· The market moves in long (secular) trends which may last years, e.g. the present equity bull market dates from 1982.
· Intermediate trends lasting many months, even a couple of years or so.
· Short term trends lasting weeks or months.
· Trade intermediate trends in either direction.
· Trade short term trends only in the direction of the intermediate trend.
Proxies:
· 3 Day MA - a proxy for price
· 13 Day MA - a proxy for the short term trend (a moving trend line)
· 39 Day MA - a proxy for the intermediate trend (a moving trend line)
· 40 week, 200 day MA - a proxy for the secular trend (a moving Trend line)
The Basics of MAs
MAs lag market reversals at tops and bottoms, the larger the MA the longer the lag period, the shorter the MA the shorter the lag but the more frequent the whipsaws. MAs work well when markets trend but get frequently whipsawed when they are in a range.
Therefore, trade trends with the MAs but do not trade ranges using MAs. Just stand aside and be patient until a new trend emerges.
The intermediate trend is in the direction of the 39 MA which acts like a moving trend line. If the 39 MA is pointing up then the intermediate trend is up, if down the trend is down. If the 39 MA is horizontal the market is in a range, from which a trend will, sooner or later, emerge.
Simple Trading Rules
1. When the 39 MA is moving up buy when the 3 MA crosses up over the 13 MA. and/or when the 3 MA crosses above the 39 MA.. When the 13 MA crosses above the 39 MA consider adding to your long position. Exit and stand aside when the 3 crosses back below the 13 MA..
2. When the 39 MA is moving down sell short when the 3 MA crosses below the 13 MA. and/or when the 3 MA crosses below the 39 MA.. When the 13 MA crosses below the 39 MA consider adding to your short position. Exit and stand aside when the 3 MA crosses back up over the 13 MA.
3. Only initiate trades in the opposite direction of the intermediate trend when the 3 MA crosses above or below the 39 MA, preferably after the 39 MA has already changed direction.
4. This 3:13 MA crossover will keep you trading in the trend with only a small lag and on the sidelines during corrections. The lag only becomes more substantial at reversals of the intermediate trend (a 3:39 crossover), a small price to pay at these uncertain times of trend transition.


Aids to Interpretation
· When the 3:13 crossovers occur at some distance from the 39 MA then you are 'likely' dealing with a short-term correction (even though it can be substantial) to the 39 MA.
· If the 3:13 & 39 MAs are close and converging before crossing over you are 'likely' dealing with an intermediate (or significant) correction of the trend or reversal.

Make 3 SMA thick black; 13 SMA red and 39 pink to copy my display.

Trade the black 3 SMA and ignore candles. You will become wealthy quite quickly.

Finally. Anyone who writes frequent posts isn't a trader. Ignore these dangerous people. Traders rarely have time to write posts.

I recommend that you join the https://www.sta-uk.org/

As ever

Phil
Best post I've seen in a long time on any forum.
 

Kear

Member
64 5
Thanks, l think you say SMA somewhere, but l always use EMA, thanks for clarification, what's your favourite time frame, as l only trade from H1 and H4, l dont have time to watch all day long. and lower than this doesn't suit me.
 

yogi1137

Newbie
6 0
I think it depends on your personality type, you can have many people trading the same system, and yet only a small percentage succeed whilst the rest fail. If everyone traded the same system, and this was the outcome, then the small percentage traded what they saw and stuck to a plan, and the chances are that the ones who failed allowed their belief system to interrupt the process of a winning strategy.
Many people wants very good benefit or profit or even every expecting "profit"
but it is not that much simple...
 

Kear

Member
64 5
I like Weekly and Daily, but when it comes to entries, l start looking at H4 and H1
and solid support or resistance to show up. Once an area is holding l dont mind dropping to a 15 min time frame, but HTFrames are certainly better for me.
 

Kear

Member
64 5
Trading is not very difficult nor you need any certification in it. Experience and knowledge about market is one of the most important thing you need along with this you should have a good trading plan.
Already have one thanks. The reason most struggle is because they are impatient and want to be rich now.
 
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