Why is trading difficult?

Splitlink

Legendary member
10,850 1,233
I know what is the matter with me--to keep criticism of others in perspective---and there are many like me.

I think that I have controlled my problem, in part, with target orders and the discipline to cut the trade above breakeven..

I picked, what I believed, was a good trade, let it go to a certain number of points profit and then I tried for more. The result is that, if it runs back I am comfortable, as it is in profit. Quite often, though, it runs into loss because traders who bought when I did, are often experts who are content to take a few points profit, when I did not, and a lot of other reversing trades clicked in, pushing my trade into loss.

The end result of this is that, in addition to the spread, my mental processes were biased towards a loss as soon as it ran back from maximum profit. "Oh, that's alright, it will probably come back" sort of thing.

This is a psychologocal block, I'm not a great one for reading those sort of threads, but I acknowledge that that is what it is. Knowing the problem helps to dominate it.

To cut out momentum traders trading against me I prefer to let the bar complete and the next one to continue a couple of points, That is not a sure recipe, but it protects against making lot of premature trades and spikes-- a lot of breakouts do spike beyond and come back.

In a nutshell, a trader with that mentality is biased towards a loss on every trade that he makes.

To avoid the above, I do not believe that 5 minute bars are sufficient to be allowed to complete. I think that it needs more time, depending on the instrument but that is another problem for the trader to decide.

To allow a bar to complete, BTW, I have to enter manually. Orders to enter at breakout will, almost certainly, be triggered and a lot will result in a loss if one is a daytrader.
 
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Forexmospherian

Legendary member
39,928 3,300
Trading to make money on a continual basis over weeks months and years is very difficult mainly because you need different "multi-skills" - with most of them taking a long time to develop - ie many years rather than many weeks

If you can compare say to going to a top football player like Ronaldo or Messi and say to them can you teach me all your footie skills - they would immediately say its taken years and years to get to a top level and unless you can commit to the dedication and effort they have - then you have no chance.

So first hurdle for Forex traders - ( I have only traded fx - so sticking with something I know) is to really be able to understand price action at a "coalface" or intraday level. That is essential and to coin a phrase - "the devil is in the detail"

Generally to get to a high level you will need to do 10,000+ hours watching live charts - ideally under a 5 min time frames.

Back testing and other methods cannot really assist you - you need real time - not history etc as it always looks easy in hindsight.

Now if you have loads of spare time on your side and could spend say 6 hrs a day watching live charts at key periods ( Europe and US sessions) then to achieve 10k hrs will take approx 1600+ days to say - yes I am now at the level required to read PA at more than a 50% accuracy level - (65 -80% is achievable even on 100's of trades - by traders who have undertaken this achievement )

The trouble is - if say 240 trading days pa - allowing for holidays etc - then 1600+ days will take 7 years +

Yes maybe after 5000 live hrs - ie 3- 4 years on the way as - you will by then have developed the skill - but still not at the higher level

Now here is the real crux of the matter - 90% of new traders will be part time and cannot spare 30+ hrs a week - and so might only be able to spare say 10 -15 hrs a week - ie a couple of hrs every day.

That means these traders will take 7 yrs to get to a good level - and over 14 yrs to do their 10k live hours watching charts.

To make it worse - if you are a 4 hr of daily frame trader - it will take you 10 -20 years to really understand PA at the levels you need to have a chance of getting over 65% + of your trades correct and that's why most ie 80 or 90+ % of traders fail - they just have not done the study and the time.

To learn the other skills - ie advanced money management - psychological strength and correct mental attitude etc - can all be achieved in a year or less - although many traders will fail on both these skill requirements and really then should question should they carry on.

OK automation etc can help - but only if the strategy as been tested over 1000's of live trades - ideally over at least 2 years - and is still capable to go through further evolution - simply because the market is dynamic and for ever changing etc

There will always be part time traders who can make 10 -50% per annum gains on their small accounts - on going - they might have losing weeks or even months and count themselves as being successful - but hardly worth going full time unless you have a quarter of a million plus account - and not many retailers have - and also trading on say 20 full lots is a different ball game to a dollar a pip.

With myself - yes I have easily done over the 10k hrs after 11 years forex trading with 6 yrs full time. Yes I can make the 20 -50% account increases per month ( yes per month) on accounts up to $50k - but give me a quarter or half a million capital account - and I would have a job maintaining 5 -10% a month increase - as I know my own "financial psychological wall" - and bottle it over approx 15 lot trades - but have now problem with 3-10 lot ones - doing between on average 10 -20 trades most days I trade

I have taken now over 13k live trades and have had thousands of losses - but most of them all well controlled with my stops being normally 4 -7 pips - maximum - ( yes that's what you can do when you have done your time and study;-) )

I have had 20+ winning trades on the "trot" - but also suffered many 3 -5 bad consecutive losses and even the odd "black swans" leading to more than 7 bad trades in a row

Therefore my winning ratios on approx 100 trades can be as low as approx 62% to as high as 87% - the market is dynamic - it will never be constant to within say 5% margin

I have been doing a thread under discretionary trading here on T2W for this month on November and its had over 20k views and I have made now over 1500+ pips in that time - with most importantly - no losing day - yes no losing day

That is down to skill - technique and advanced MM - stuff that takes many many years to develop - so it is possible - and that's one of the reasons why I am doing the thread - just to show it is possible

Regards

Forexmospherian
 

timsk

Legendary member
7,348 2,140
Trading to make money . . .
Hi Forexmospherian,
Reading your posts reminds me of the film Groundhog Day - as I've read this particular one 2 or 3 times in the last week or, at least, minor variations of it. As you'll only be too aware, during your short tenure here on T2W, you've managed to unite a collection of some long standing and well respected members against you. I have to say, based on posts like this one, it's not hard to see why. So, pray tell, what do you hope to achieve by repeatedly telling everyone that you're an expert? I ask because of all the experts I've ever met (in any field, not just in trading), tend to be humble folk who would never brag about their achievements on a public forum like T2W. By the same token, all the people who make claims like yours turn out to be - almost without exception - vendors of one sort or another that can't trade for toffee but are fairly adept at separating gullible and impressionable newbies from their money. The question is: are you going to be the exception that proves the rule?
Tim.
 
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Forexmospherian

Legendary member
39,928 3,300
Hi Forexmospherian,
Reading your posts reminds me of the film Groundhog Day - as I've read this particular one 2 or 3 times in the last week or, at least, minor variations of it. As you'll only be too aware, during your short tenure here on T2W, you've managed to unite a collection of some long standing and well respected members against you. I have to say, based on posts like this one, it's not hard to see why. So, pray tell, what do you hope to achieve by repeatedly telling everyone that you're an expert? I ask because of all the experts I've ever met (in any field, not just in trading), tend to be humble folk who would never brag about their achievements on a public forum like T2W. By the same token, all the people who make claims like yours turn out to be - almost without exception - vendors of one sort or another that can't trade for toffee but are fairly adept at separating gullible and impressionable newbies from their money. The question is: are you going to be the exception that proves the rule?
Tim.

Hi Tim

I think this particular site as unfortunately bought out the "beast" in me ;-)) - simply because I have never accounted so many moaners and fault finders who were determined to make out I was a fraudster selling FX stuff and ripping new traders off.

The answer there is with out doubt

NO - I am the exception to the rule - ie the real deal - ie not selling anything - just showing what can be done with a lot of intraday experience in forex gathered over 11 years of trading

I spent approx 2 years on another site - and during that time had 300+ member who befriended me - ( i befriended only about 15 people ) and followed me daily - they would openly comment - thank you for being helpful and courteous and also remaining humble and with no bragging etc etc

Then things changed in July / August - after I won a competition - and I got the haters on trying to pull me apart by saying I was on a demo account and was not a proper trader.

That lead to many traders getting banned for rude abuse etc and the site seemed to have traders having big arguments every week - ie the scalpers V 4 hour brigade - etc etc

So i and approx 8 of my fellow members who were intraday traders had our "group" closed and we then left the site on very amicable terms - with the owner of the site thanking us for all our contributions

I am not on Twitter or Face book etc and I am probably not use to this new culture of trying to annoy others and "winding" them up. So now I have accounted it - I think I will give as a I good as I get - and if you can do it - flaunt it ;-))

It is certainly not my normal character - I am laid back and non argumentative and in real life - very humble.

I really hope this characteristic will come out and appear more in the future - as to be quite honest I strongly dislike big headed people - and therefore certainly don't want to become one myself.

Therefore 90%+ of the members who raise questions etc with me will be treated very respectfully etc etc and I can say to them that during my first 18 -24 months learning forex - I was no good and a loser and nearly gave it up a few times

Thankfully - that changed ;-)

Regards

F
 

numbertea

Well-known member
257 9
Hi Tim

I think this particular site as unfortunately bought out the "beast" in me ;-)) - simply because I have never accounted so many moaners and fault finders who were determined to make out I was a fraudster selling FX stuff and ripping new traders off.

The answer there is with out doubt

NO - I am the exception to the rule - ie the real deal - ie not selling anything - just showing what can be done with a lot of intraday experience in forex gathered over 11 years of trading

I spent approx 2 years on another site - and during that time had 300+ member who befriended me - ( i befriended only about 15 people ) and followed me daily - they would openly comment - thank you for being helpful and courteous and also remaining humble and with no bragging etc etc

Then things changed in July / August - after I won a competition - and I got the haters on trying to pull me apart by saying I was on a demo account and was not a proper trader.

That lead to many traders getting banned for rude abuse etc and the site seemed to have traders having big arguments every week - ie the scalpers V 4 hour brigade - etc etc

So i and approx 8 of my fellow members who were intraday traders had our "group" closed and we then left the site on very amicable terms - with the owner of the site thanking us for all our contributions

I am not on Twitter or Face book etc and I am probably not use to this new culture of trying to annoy others and "winding" them up. So now I have accounted it - I think I will give as a I good as I get - and if you can do it - flaunt it ;-))

It is certainly not my normal character - I am laid back and non argumentative and in real life - very humble.

I really hope this characteristic will come out and appear more in the future - as to be quite honest I strongly dislike big headed people - and therefore certainly don't want to become one myself.

Therefore 90%+ of the members who raise questions etc with me will be treated very respectfully etc etc and I can say to them that during my first 18 -24 months learning forex - I was no good and a loser and nearly gave it up a few times

Thankfully - that changed ;-)

Regards

F

I for one, appreciate honesty but also the ability to not always hold back the great achievements one as made. Humbleness is a subjective description. In a forum where all have growing trade accounts it is okay to tell a little of ones good fortune. I like to think that all who read and learn from this forum will not allow themselves to become victims of a horrendous trade so why should anyone have to "walk around eggshells" and cater to weak emotions of those who might be offended. This is a forum of learning!

Cheers
 

NVP

Legendary member
37,535 1,988
I am a beginner, my only experience was a one-off purchase of LBG shares when I worked for the company 2 years ago. The price had plummeted to 20p, now its at 75p. I thoroughly understand that this is an unusual return.

But, when I stumbled upon this forum, in many of the beginner threads I see many posters saying that trading profitably is extraordinarily difficult and takes a huge amount of hard work. However, looking at the FTSE, if you were to invest exactly 1 year ago, the index has gone up 17% since. This, along with typical theories of economic growth, suggests that the share prices of large companies, in general, go up.

So what is it, I ask, that makes it so difficult to be profitable? Are the trading fees so large that this general trend is outweighed? What is it that makes investing your savings in shares in a few large companies so difficult? Am I missing something obvious? Or just being too optimistic?

Thank you.

because hindsight trading always makes money ;)

N
 

timsk

Legendary member
7,348 2,140
. . .Therefore 90%+ of the members who raise questions etc with me will be treated very respectfully etc etc
Glad to hear it F'!

For what it's worth, my advice would be to ease off on listing the goals you've achieved and focus more on helping others to achieve theirs. That rather crass expression so favoured of the network marketing / MLM world springs to mind: 'people don't care how much you know until they know how much you care' - or something like that. Of course, this does still leave the question hanging in the air as to why anyone who has achieved the dizzying heights of success that you have would feel the need to impress us lot? But that's a rhetorical question which, in the fullness of time, will be answered by your actions rather than your words.
;)

As a matter of interest, what was the comp' that you won and who hosted it?
Cheers,
Tim.
 
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Forexmospherian

Legendary member
39,928 3,300
Hi Tim

I have probably answered your two main questions in the other thread - both in the last day or so.

The main reason I do a intraday thread is for my own record - ie I can look back on it an see why I did or didn't take trades and most importantly the thread gets me focused and into my own particular trading zone. Its a type of discipline - putting what you are seeing and thinking in print along with price levels you might act upon at that particular time. (I do kick myself at times in the thread - and say I need time out or another coffee to get going again etc )

I need pressure of a certain level to help me perform - but too larger stake sizes gives me the palpitations and the sweaty hands - however, saying out open what you expect to happen makes you think twice before you just act on it. With me taking say 10 -20 trades a day - I need to be really focused as well as having time out in between . Cold figures just do not always paint the picture.

I do like others to participate as well and many times I like to hear a trader saying have you checked this pair out - and then it can lead to another trade etc - or at least I can say what I think if its not one for me at that time

The last competition I won was hosted by FX street . I have competed in demo competitions in the past and only 1 live money competition via Iron FX - but did not make the top 10.

In fact I don't think I have reached any real "dizzy height of success " as you might say - because if there are over one and half million retail forex traders in the world to even be in the top 5% means there are possibly 75 k traders world wide as good or better than me

I know personally of at least 5 other retail traders in just the UK better than me at trading for monies ( in my eyes) but were are the other 74995 ? - they have got to be somewhere - surely a few thousand here at T2W ??

Regards

F
 

NVP

Legendary member
37,535 1,988


I spent approx 2 years on another site - and during that time had 300+ member who befriended me - ( i befriended only about 15 people ) and followed me daily

I know personally of at least 5 other retail traders in just the UK better than me at trading for monies ( in my eyes) but were are the other 74995 ? - they have got to be somewhere - surely a few thousand here at T2W ??
:(


Hey F

20,000 views on your thread (impressive indeed and one to aspire to)......1000's of pips profit .....no losing days ......... not forgetting the 300+ Friends .......

and are you really sure those 5 Traders are better than you ? .......c'mon give yourself some credit and declare yourself the best Trader in the UK .....

after all this is what trading is all about......... right ?

if you want love and repect.... just buy a dog dude ........

dont bring your insecurities here or I fear the heavy duty crew will arrive soon to get on your case ......and you really dont want them on you .......you really dont :whistling

dont say i didnt give you a friendly warning.......

N

Hey !....301 friends now..... (y)
 
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tar

Legendary member
10,443 1,313
So this thread is now about Forexmospherian ?!
 

Splitlink

Legendary member
10,850 1,233
Glad to hear it F'!

For what it's worth, my advice would be to ease off on listing the goals you've achieved and focus more on helping others to achieve theirs. That rather crass expression so favoured of the network marketing / MLM world springs to mind: 'people don't care how much you know until they know how much you care' - or something like that. Of course, this does still leave the question hanging in the air as to why anyone who has achieved the dizzying heights of success that you have would feel the need to impress us lot? But that's a rhetorical question which, in the fullness of time, will be answered by your actions rather than your words.
;)

As a matter of interest, what was the comp' that you won and who hosted it?
Cheers,
Tim.

Tim,

Everywhere F goes, he will trash the thread. It's up to you, Management, to stop him.
 

Forexmospherian

Legendary member
39,928 3,300


I spent approx 2 years on another site - and during that time had 300+ member who befriended me - ( i befriended only about 15 people ) and followed me daily

I know personally of at least 5 other retail traders in just the UK better than me at trading for monies ( in my eyes) but were are the other 74995 ? - they have got to be somewhere - surely a few thousand here at T2W ??
:(


Hey F

20,000 views on your thread (impressive indeed and one to aspire to)......1000's of pips profit .....no losing days ......... not forgetting the 300+ Friends .......

and are you really sure those 5 Traders are better than you ? .......c'mon give yourself some credit and declare yourself the best Trader in the UK .....

after all this is what trading is all about......... right ?

if you want love and repect.... just buy a dog dude ........

dont bring your insecurities here or I fear the heavy duty crew will arrive soon to get on your case ......and you really dont want them on you .......you really dont :whistling

dont say i didnt give you a friendly warning.......

N

Hey !....301 friends now..... (y)

Hi N

Got the dog - and do I need forex trader friends - no

Sometimes the "truth" can really hurt other traders - who think they are good or accept the commercial world speel.

As I have already said in one of my comments the top 5% of retail traders could be a many as 75000 traders world wide . That could mean over 70k are better than me and have more experience etc

That's no problem - I still learn more every year - but noticing its not so much now as it was the first 7 years

Don't worry - I dont get wound up - its all water off a ducks back to me - what ever is thrown at me - meanwhile I will just carry on intraday trading - but I will be having days off over December and January - and I can imagine the first day I dont blog on my thread - some saying - that's it he's given up - he cannot hack it etc etc

Regards

F
 

timsk

Legendary member
7,348 2,140
Everywhere F goes, he will trash the thread. It's up to you, Management, to stop him.
Hi Split',
If a post breaches the Community Constitution (CC), then please use the red flag Report Post facility to bring it to the attention of the Mods. They will then deal with it. Remember, I am not a Mod and, therefore, not in a position to do anything to 'stop' him.

His initial post to this thread did lead it down an off-topic cul-de-sac and I'm guilty of perpetuating that by replying to it. However, as I say, anyone can report this to the Mods who will then edit or delete as they see fit.

The only way that I'm aware of to stop Forexmospherian (and others) from 'trashing' threads as you put it is to ban him. And the Mods will only do that if breaches the rules laid out in the CC. Besides that option, you could lobby Steve to override the Mods and ban him as a one-off - but he'll only go down that route in very extreme circumstances. As for me, I'm afraid that I have no magic powers to stop him or anyone else from posting. Sorry!
Tim.
 

Forexmospherian

Legendary member
39,928 3,300
Tim,

Everywhere F goes, he will trash the thread. It's up to you, Management, to stop him.

Hi Spitlink

What a ridiculous statement - please just ignore me if you seem to know more than me etc - and no I am not taking the p - you don't have to read any of my comments .

Have a great December

Regards

F
 

Forexmospherian

Legendary member
39,928 3,300
Hi Split',
If a post breaches the Community Constitution (CC), then please use the red flag Report Post facility to bring it to the attention of the Mods. They will then deal with it. Remember, I am not a Mod and, therefore, not in a position to do anything to 'stop' him.

His initial post to this thread did lead it down an off-topic cul-de-sac and I'm guilty of perpetuating that by replying to it. However, as I say, anyone can report this to the Mods who will then edit or delete as they see fit.

The only way that I'm aware of to stop Forexmospherian (and others) from 'trashing' threads as you put it is to ban him. And the Mods will only do that if breaches the rules laid out in the CC. Besides that option, you could lobby Steve to override the Mods and ban him as a one-off - but he'll only go down that route in very extreme circumstances. As for me, I'm afraid that I have no magic powers to stop him or anyone else from posting. Sorry!
Tim.


Sorry Tim - I have no intention of "trashing" any threads at all

You and any mods only have to tell me - please do not comment on any subject etc - I will abide with your wishes

I will be doing some of my own threads under the TA heading and for now - will only comment on my own thread - as to not offend any other members.

I just don't mind these guys winning with their comments - By giving respect to them - I hope they will then give me respect back ;-)

Regards

F
 
 
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