Has the DOW topped? What are peoples opinions?


Active member
Hi All,

Is this it?? Has the DOW topped? We've been waiting for the blowout before the big drop and there was sorta a blowout to almost 9500 before tumbling all the way down..
I guess it's still too early to say but what do people think?

Cheers :cheesy:

Like you say, too early to tell yet, but the recent breakout of the sideways trading range is not looking too strong. Support at the top of this range is now being tested. If we see further falls next week, we will be back into sideways trading mode again.

For me, we really need to see a EOD close below 9000 (bottom of range) to trigger a serious sell signal.

Alternatively, If we see a strong upward momentum early next week, this could well signal further moves upwards towards 10000.

Which way to call? Thats not for me. Wait and see which way it goes, and then follow it.
Tea Bags

Tetley Syndrome

Since the advent of tea bags many readers of the daily sludge at the bottom of one's cup have decreased of late.

However. one fool proof method remains: Wait until the market moves then - move with it.

Some very wise advise here!

If it breaks through the current resistance of 9500 I think it may well go up to 10000 before diving again.

If continues to fall next week then it will probably fall a couple of hundred points before it goes up again.

But as everyone else have been saying just go with the flow unlike the buy and hold scenario there is no need to hang on to a loosing position indefinitely.
we tested 1010 on increased volume, so I'd say it needs 2 be re-tested... And, mate, u r hearing this from a grizzly bear... :)

on a longer-view note I still reckon that we need to touch the underbelly of S&P's selling pattern from 2002 which comes @ 1040-1050. I am super bearish after that will have hap'd, however it's all earnings game. E.g. In July earning of S&P500 components were expected 2 increase at 7+ % best, they actually checked in @ 9.2%. If this carries on, well u may have any print up to 1200 b4 the yr ends. I do not think that is likely tho.....
It appears that the Dow has much support at 9300. If it doesn't fall below this figure today then we should be on a upward trend once again.

If it falls below this figure we could see a fall to 9100.
Has the dow topped? good question we all would love to know. The best bet is to watch the charts/indicators and buy/sell accordingly.
As I'm convinced that ultimately we are heading for 3200 on the FTSE , it follows that the Dow will turn south as well...........However I cannot determine when this will happen.
Perhaps some members can enlighten me to some sort of accurate timing mechanism.

Refer to my new thread .......The Bigger Picture
FTSE 3200. Not in my lifetime again. (unless they rebase the index)

JonnyT..........you may well be right......but here's a list of all my current analysis. Out of the following list, I only trade the shorter term picture.

Longer term: Target 3200
Medium term: Target 3808
Shorter term: Target 4300 and Target 3920
Timing, timing, timing :cool: Short term is best, you don't want to get stuck in a wrong idea :cry: Be flexible :cheesy:
I'm more convinced that FTSE will hit 10,000.

I don't know when.

My analysis is based on nothing, rather like yours.

PS 4300 is going to be smashed over the next few days, leading to a new recent high...

Apparently not yet topped, but I guess everyone noticed that last night :)

EW say this 2.5 month sideways move has been a 4th wave consolidation. 5th wave in now underway.

The maximum resistance, as noted in EWFF, is 9930, the 78.6% retracement of the decline from March 2002.

Certainly looks like a leg 5 wave up to my new-to-elliot eye... ;)

Also, is this a bullish triangle or am I seeing things? Long term resistance marked in red, triangle and target line in yellow.



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