How do people figure out if the FTSE will open higher or lower tomorrow?

[bottomdollar]

Hi guys
Just wondering how people determine whether the FTSE will open higher or lower tomorrow? ie gap up or down.

Would it be accurate to say the FTSE will gap down tomorrow as the DOW has fallen? Or is there something else?

At the moment, I tend to look at the City Index prices and I see they think it will open 30 pionts lower.. also, every morning around 7.30am i read the news on Yahoo and they say what they think but how do they get this info???

Many thanks

Bottomdollar

 

[JE2000]

It depends how the Nikkei and dow preform overnight.

 

[JE2000]

Currently at the moment the

- FTSE will open around 4210 (down 26)
- DAX will open around 3300 (down 5)
- CAC will open around 3215 (down 45)

Will be interesting to see how they open tomorrow. The above is based on D4F pricing.

 

[bottomdollar]

Ok... that's cool.. what is the symbol for the Nikkei on myTrack??

 

[JE2000]

it's called japan225. A very hard market to trade. Even harder when 1 yen = 1 pound when spreadbetting.

 

[CityTrader]

I think the change on the S&P's, DJ, and Nasdaq AFTER the London close has a much greater influence. And then of course you have major US co;s reporting after the close, and Major European co's reporting prior to the opening. As a general rule of thumb, just halve whatever the DJIA has done after the London close, and that will be the change expected in London next morning.

 

[bonsai]

seems to me there are several elements to this.
all judgmental of course

1-where did ftse futures close
2-what prices are people like d4f offering
3-the overnight issues such as S&P etc
4-morning call on S&P futures (globex issues)

d4f have the same problems.

there are many opportunities to trade d4f before the open if
you think they have 'over egged it' even if ftse opens down.

S&P futures may show 'further deterioration' or a pull back in progress which will temper the open.

Fair value for ftse futures should be taken into account. There may be some volatility in this but there are plenty of pro traders
waiting to counteract any undue movement.

none of this provides a simple answer as to whether it opens up or down but dont forget you are really trading the futures not the cash.So what you really want to know is if the futures are going to open up or down ?

 

[bonsai]

here is overnight S&P
finished for the day now but when you start
in the morning, give it the once over.
its in eastern standard time

<img width ="500" height="400" src="http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/globex.png">

 

[FTSE Beater]

Hi BottomDollar

The main thing I looked at is the price of the Dow at 4:30pm and then look at where it closed. The difference will give you an idea, as anything before 4:30 will be factored into the price of the FTSE.

<hr>
Bonsai

I know what you mean about D4F not knowing either, but before they open they adjust their prices to match the FTSE Futures, which means you can't benefit from the price jump
Unless you trade based on some form of opening reversal.

Just my thoughts

 

[bonsai]

this morning was a good example

overnight ftse was on offer at 199
I thought they had over egged it.
ftse actually opened at 212
and within a few minutes I got 211
so it was down for sure but still a profitable trading opportunity.

one feature of market action is that 'they' do not like to
open gap down to a new low.
so , a fairly low risk opportunity.

 

[barjon]

good one, bonsai

nice start to the day - off to France to pick up the car soon.

jon

 

[bonsai]

that's going to be a very expensive water pump ?

lol

 

[barjon]

yeah, about 170 points

over and out

jon

 

[bonsai]

Ftse now at 64/68

 

[bonsai]

just taken 87 for +19

 

[Lambchops]

Nice trade Bonsai - I bought at 77 pre market and sold for 88 +11. Do D4F charge anything for the overnight trade?

 

[bonsai]

their breakpoint is usually 10pm
so if you trade before that they will charge you
interest and on ex divi days you mayget hit for divi adjustment as well.

I assume that's when they do their update for the account statements.

 

[bonsai]

well done lambchops
wont make a habit of posting these every day but
hope the concept is clear and its worth storing away

unusual for the opportunity to occur on 2 consecutive days.

 

[neil]

Hi folks
Where can I get a free intra day delayed FTSE chart
(to compare SMI index)
Thanks

 

[bonsai]

I think you will find that Bigcharts provides overlay or comparison charts ?