GOLD

bax699

Junior member
12 3
gold on the Daily. im thinking it may drop to around 1279 ish for anothe rpush up maybe, anyones thoughts?
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postman

Legendary member
20,971 2,259
Your just prognosticating a massive fall in the dow that would make Gold actually worth anything. People have been doing that for the last 10 years without profit.
Whats that I hear you cry "but it's different this time".
 

new_trader

Legendary member
6,197 1,261
What an odd reply postman(n)

I see someone asking if any other trader agrees with their analysis on gold, there is no mention of the DOW. Since gold is now @USD1308 I'd say the OP's anaylsis was good for anyone that traded the move. (y)
 

postman

Legendary member
20,971 2,259
What an odd reply postman(n)

I see someone asking if any other trader agrees with their analysis on gold, there is no mention of the DOW. Since gold is now @USD1308 I'd say the OP's anaylsis was good for anyone that traded the move. (y)
Granted the response was a little terse.
The point of my post was to say that Gold is not a volatile commodity, for the last 5 years its been in a $300 range, the only time its likely to see a significant rise is when a market correction occurs and Gold is bought as a hedge.

The reason for mentioning the Dow was the poster bax699 has only posted on 4 occasions and the most recent one was
"Its posible when gold rises that stocks fall slightly, will the next rise in gold prices make the dow fall? " https://www.trade2win.com/threads/dow-jones.234807/post-3091855
Betting on the dow falling to profit from Gold is a fools errand.
 
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hatemypips

Well-known member
399 25
Granted the response was a little terse.
The point of my post was to say that Gold is not a volatile commodity, for the last 5 years its been in a $300 range, the only time its likely to see a significant rise is when a market correction occurs and Gold is bought as a hedge.

The reason for mentioning the Dow was the poster bax699 has only posted on 4 occasions and the most recent one was
"Its posible when gold rises that stocks fall slightly, will the next rise in gold prices make the dow fall? " https://www.trade2win.com/threads/dow-jones.234807/post-3091855
Betting on the dow falling to profit from Gold is a fools errand.
And what do you think about recent rise in demand from global central banks on gold? They're buying record amount still gold rally seems to be stalling. Are there some hidden factors which restrain its growth?
 

Dunstan

Junior member
10 1
Hi Everyone,

I thought I'll share with you the following finding. I don't know if you follow the cot report or not, but if you do, you might be interested in looking at the options only data, because to me it seems as if there are some "smart people" among commercial participants. Look at the attached chart and it becomes obvious. If this continues, I believe we have a good chance that gold will be headed north in the next couple of days, few weeks.

All the best,
Dunstan
(cot chart from COTbase.com)
 

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punjabi

Junior member
13 4
Dunstan, can you pls clarify what you see on the COT screenshot you posted? I would love to know your analysis.

FYI, I bought GCM last Thur at 1285 and closed yesterday at 1310 for a quick profit.
 

Dunstan

Junior member
10 1
Dunstan, can you pls clarify what you see on the COT screenshot you posted? I would love to know your analysis.

FYI, I bought GCM last Thur at 1285 and closed yesterday at 1310 for a quick profit.
Hi Punjabi,

Sorry, somehow I did not see your remark... So basically on the chart I am indicating all of those large changes in Traders positions that correlate with a move in the market. This is basically analysis of the COT report (Commitments of Traders report) and these are so called cot change signals. I used to have a thread on this, but for some reason it disappeared...

All the best,
Dunstan
 

Joules MM1

Established member
639 140
keep in mind the cot report is out of sync, invariably a week behind, context needs to be with that print, transactions with immediacy of less than a week will be less about concise levels and more to do with luck, if based on the cot, it lifts the risk rather than contains it...

if you want to backtest it timingcharts.com have a good setup for historic pov, or tradingview.com for backtesting nearterm ideas

it is the out of sync-ness that traps most players, or worse, sets up a bias, the correlation quickly falls apart due to the print lag
 
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Silverston

Junior member
20 3
Gold is uncharacteristically active for June, I think it could've turned a corner, I'm long Silver, Gold and $GDXJ and waiting for a legup, could test the patience but seems best set up for some time.
 

bax699

Junior member
12 3
Yes thats true. Ive been buying small packages along the way. i do believe we will still see a correction down to 1340-1380's. ive just put a small sell as it looks like a double top forming in the channel we are in
 

Pat494

Legendary member
13,477 1,326
Gold is uncharacteristically active for June, I think it could've turned a corner, I'm long Silver, Gold and $GDXJ and waiting for a legup, could test the patience but seems best set up for some time.
Until they find a solid gold asteroid it will always have a basic upward momentum.
 

nnash

Newbie
4 1
I have had a GLD position on for a year and a half now waiting for these moves. IMO I don't think it is time to liquidate but I also don't see how you get in at these prices on a new position.
 

Silverston

Junior member
20 3
Hi Mike, best take any Gold signals with a pinch of salt - a lot in the Goldbugs community are die hard bulls (since around 1980) and you won't get a very balanced view. Best stick to something simple like buying at 200dma pullbacks into an uptrend or breakout of symmetrical triangles if you like your chart patterns, shouldn't need to be more complicated than that. 321gold.com is good for editorials and some view and I have been reading zealllc.com since 2004, when I was wondering if buying gold at $400 was too high. But again he is a perma-bull so you won't get any reasoned balanced views there.

Saying that on a macro level, at some point on a yearly basis we're likely to see much higher (rather than lower) gold prices purely because it performs well in both an inflationary and deflationary environment and likes negative interest rates too, so there's not much not to like. But again, how long do you want your money tied up in a sideways position?

I read Jim Rogers (another perma-bull) likes Silver but is not buying any more at 'these levels' - the gold/silver ratio is very attractive now. BTW I'm long gold, silver and $GDXJ gold juniors with about a 1/3 position and hope to add another 1/3 at the end of August/start of September depending on whether there is any traction to this uptrend.