Cycles Info - Fwiw, according to Marty Armstrong's PEI models, this weekend is a major high for his multi-year global business cycle. Btw, he was also pretty accurate with his commodity forecast back in 2000.
firewalker99
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Trader333 said:
My initial reaction would be "I don't believe sh*" but as of yesterday (exactly Febraury 26) all markets are plunging... :-0
Atilla
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Trader333 said:
No it means there is a cylce for white durable goods that last 7 years.
Guess which figure will be released in the next hour or so?
How long / often do you guys change your TVs, Fridges, Washing Machines, etc etc?
Here is the tricky question. Do we all change it at the same time?
Nevertheless the short term cycle is reliable one imo!
Just to add dust the smog..how often do you think people move house on aggregate 🙂 the answers above .(or that was the number in the not too distant past.
I might add that in New Market Wizards it was Al Weiss: The Human Chart Encyclopedia
who made much of his consideration of inflationary/disinflationary cycles has acontribuution to his outstanding performance. Whilst this does not exactly reinforce the cycle given in that article it is following along similar lines in it's thoughts as to why stock markets broadly rise and fall.....commodities are inflationary !
I might add that in New Market Wizards it was Al Weiss: The Human Chart Encyclopedia
who made much of his consideration of inflationary/disinflationary cycles has acontribuution to his outstanding performance. Whilst this does not exactly reinforce the cycle given in that article it is following along similar lines in it's thoughts as to why stock markets broadly rise and fall.....commodities are inflationary !
rockseller
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One of Armstrong's last comments made in 2000:
"I view the world from a global correlation perspective and it just doesn't seem possible to achieve a raging bull market in metals when stocks are the flavor of the month. Historically, bull markets are created when capital concentrates, and that focus is in the stock market for now. When that concentration breaks, capital will look around for the next great investment. That should be the commodity cycle between 2002-2007 and perhaps extend out as late as 2012. For now, the metals should make their final lows by 2002. Either way, they should be contrasted by a bubble top in stocks."
Hi guys,
What do you think of this comment. I tend to agree with his analysis especially on commodity market not sure about stock market. Buy as long as long as China, India, Russia and other emerging market middle class continue to increase. The price of these commodity should continue to rise.
"I view the world from a global correlation perspective and it just doesn't seem possible to achieve a raging bull market in metals when stocks are the flavor of the month. Historically, bull markets are created when capital concentrates, and that focus is in the stock market for now. When that concentration breaks, capital will look around for the next great investment. That should be the commodity cycle between 2002-2007 and perhaps extend out as late as 2012. For now, the metals should make their final lows by 2002. Either way, they should be contrasted by a bubble top in stocks."
Hi guys,
What do you think of this comment. I tend to agree with his analysis especially on commodity market not sure about stock market. Buy as long as long as China, India, Russia and other emerging market middle class continue to increase. The price of these commodity should continue to rise.
