Gambler, Trader, Speculator or Investor

[Emini-mouse]

I'm hoping for your sake their is a typo in that sentence which should have read:
"isn't possible"
or "impossible".

If its not a typo I suppose you've recently discovered the "wonderful hidden gem" known as the martingale system...
Roulette is for fun or suckers, simple as that.

i think we are getting confused between possible and probable

 

[timsk]

take your roulette example, it is possible to win inthe long run nomatter how high the odds are against you

No emimi-mouse, Liquid validity is spot on, it's mathematically impossible to win in the long term. In fact, the more you play, the odds against you winning increase, not the other way around. Follow the link in my earlier post to this thread if you want to get into the facts and figures as to why this is so.
Tim.

 

[Liquid validity]

i think we are getting confused between possible and probable

BTW cheers Timsk

Emini - Stories like this perpetuate the myth:
http://roulette.gamingsupermarket.com/news/1169/banned-for-winning-too-much-money-on-roulette

Its total bo11ocks, you will hit one of 4 brick walls, personal bankroll, table limit, casino bans you or long losing streak.

Read the link Timsk posted unless you enjoy adding to your casino / bookies profits.
It is impossible from a probabitily point of view as you have no edge, the house does, one zero on euro wheels and two on stateside roulette. Just covering red or black still leaves the zero risk, cover that and your bankroll will still slowly erode. Seriously its one of the worst casino games going. A casino is just for fun, that is all.

 

[Emini-mouse]

No emimi-mouse, Liquid validity is spot on, it's mathematically impossible to win in the long term. In fact, the more you play, the odds against you winning increase, not the other way around. Follow the link in my earlier post to this thread if you want to get into the facts and figures as to why this is so.
Tim.

if we play an evens chance game say tossing a coin. .heads i win ,tails you win .but if you win i give you £10 and if i win you give me £1 each toss. we both start with £1000000 and play until one of us is broke. who will win

 

[Emini-mouse]

if we play an evens chance game say tossing a coin. .heads i win ,tails you win .but if you win i give you £10 and if i win you give me £1 each toss. we both start with £1000000 and play until one of us is broke. who will win

the answer is - we do not know
sorry about answering my own question

 

[tomorton]

We better all make a resolution to never go to a casino with Emini-mouse.

 

[Liquid validity]

We better all make a resolution to never go to a casino with Emini-mouse.

I was going to point out the glaring oversight, but I think you are right, no point

 

[timsk]

if we play an evens chance game say tossing a coin. .heads i win ,tails you win .but if you win i give you £10 and if i win you give me £1 each toss. we both start with £1000000 and play until one of us is broke. who will win

Hi Emini,
We could play for one day and toss the coin say, 10 times. It could come up heads every time, so that you end the day £10.00 richer and I'm £10.00 poorer. However, given a fair coin, the more days we play then, over time, probability will start to work in my favour and I will win, guaranteed. You will lose, guaranteed. You might win on any one day, maybe even two in a row. But, over the course of a week and certainly a month, I'll be waaaaaaaay ahead of you. That's because I have a positive expectancy and you don't. If you're still scratching your head over this, read this article: How to Win at the Futures Trading Game
Everything will become clear . . .

Tim.

 

[Emini-mouse]

Hi Emini,
We could play for one day and toss the coin say, 10 times. It could come up heads every time, so that you end the day £10.00 richer and I'm £10.00 poorer. However, given a fair coin, the more days we play then, over time, probability will start to work in my favour and I will win, guaranteed. You will lose, guaranteed. You might win on any one day, maybe even two in a row. But, over the course of a week and certainly a month, I'll be waaaaaaaay ahead of you. That's because I have a positive expectancy and you don't. If you're still scratching your head over this, read this article: How to Win at the Futures Trading Game
Everything will become clear . . .

Tim.

certainly a month - well this just is not true. any mathematican could give you the odds
certainly 2 months -they could give you odd s for that aswell
if they can give you odds theres risk nomatter how small and threrfore a gamble
im surprised and disappointed i cant get anyone to agree with me on this
i seem to have given the impression that i would gamble regardles of the odds
this is not true. i am a big believer in only betting when you have an edge , when the odds are on your side. this is the best you can do .but all i am saying is that even if you do this, there is still risk so still a gamble

 

[Emini-mouse]

We better all make a resolution to never go to a casino with Emini-mouse.

if you came with me to a casino i could help you with a card counting system which i have used on two trips to Las Vegas with good profits both times .

 

[tomorton]

That's exactly the reason.

 

[Pat494]

if you came with me to a casino i could help you with a card counting system which i have used on two trips to Las Vegas with good profits both times .

Hey when are we offffffffffffffffff ?????????????????///

 

[timsk]

certainly a month - well this just is not true. any mathematican could give you the odds
certainly 2 months -they could give you odd s for that aswell
if they can give you odds theres risk nomatter how small and threrfore a gamble
im surprised and disappointed i cant get anyone to agree with me on this
i seem to have given the impression that i would gamble regardles of the odds
this is not true. i am a big believer in only betting when you have an edge , when the odds are on your side. this is the best you can do .but all i am saying is that even if you do this, there is still risk so still a gamble

Hi E-mini,
To be clear;
1. A fair coin.
2. You're heads and I'm tails (or the other way around - makes no difference to me)
3. I pay you £1.00 every time the coin lands heads up. You pay me £10.00 every time it lands tails up.

There's virtually no risk to me in the long term. The longer we play, with every toss of the coin, the greater the odds work in my favour. Name your venue and I'll happily come and take your money off you any day of the week!

Tim.

 

[Emini-mouse]

Hi E-mini,
To be clear;
1. A fair coin.
2. You're heads and I'm tails (or the other way around - makes no difference to me)
3. I pay you £1.00 every time the coin lands heads up. You pay me £10.00 every time it lands tails up.

There's virtually no risk to me in the long term. The longer we play, with every toss of the coin, the greater the odds work in my favour. Name your venue and I'll happily come and take your money off you any day of the week!

Tim.

well from certainty to virtually no risk at least there is acknowledgement that there is risk
did you not read the bit about me wanting the odds on my side before having a bet?
please timsk at least consider that there is a small but measurable risk

 

[forker]

what if:

A mechanical gadget can flip a properly positioned coin so that the coin always lands showing the same face. it wouldn't be random at all then would it

 

[Emini-mouse]

what if:

A mechanical gadget can flip a properly positioned coin so that the coin always lands showing the same face. it wouldn't be random at all then would it

well that settles it. im defo not meeting timsk for the showdown now

 

[timsk]

Hi Emini,

well from certainty to virtually no risk at least there is acknowledgement that there is risk

I acknowledge (and have acknowledged in previous posts) that there is a small risk in the short term. On average, we will each win 50% of the coin tosses, but it's possible that you will have X number of consecutive wins which might mean that you come out ahead on any given day. But the more we play, my risk reduces dramaticallly while risk increases dramatically.

did you not read the bit about me wanting the odds on my side before having a bet?

Indeed I did, but the odds can never be anything other that 50:50 in a fair coin toss.

please timsk at least consider that there is a small but measurable risk

As per the first point. The only real risk to me would be if we restricted our little comp' to a small set number of coin tosses. Assuming that there is no restriction to the number of tosses, over time I will come out ahead and the size of my pot will steadily increase at the expense of yours.
Tim.

 

[Hotch]

He's right timsk, if you played your game a billion times, there is a chance he would be ahead, hell, there's a chance of .5^1000000000 that you'd be down a billion quid.

He's not arguing that you don't have the better expectancy, he's arguing that there IS risk.

It IS possible, that tomorrow some guy could bankrupt every casino out there (assuming they let him stay).
It IS unlikely.

Now can we stop all the prick waving?

P.S. can we also stop all this R:R bullsh*t. I'm happy to roll a dice with anyone and I win £100 for 1-5 and they win £300 for 6

 

[tar]

He's right timsk, if you played your game a billion times, there is a chance he would be ahead, hell, there's a chance of .5^1000000000 that you'd be down a billion quid.

He's not arguing that you don't have the better expectancy, he's arguing that there IS risk.

It IS possible, that tomorrow some guy could bankrupt every casino out there (assuming they let him stay).
It IS unlikely.

Now can we stop all the prick waving?

P.S. can we also stop all this R:R bullsh*t. I'm happy to roll a dice with anyone and I win £100 for 1-5 and they win £300 for 6

No it is impossible , they have table limits "money management" . Take ladbrokes as an example they r here 120 years ...

 

[timsk]

Now can we stop all the prick waving?

Hi Hotch,
I wasn't aware that my flies were unzipped!
I've acknowledged in just about every post that there is some risk, so I'm not saying - and never have said - that it's irradicated altogether.

Tim.