TheBramble
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Cable Short Term Analysis - w/c Oct. 8th 2007
2.0680 looks like a good place to aim for jacinto, if we get the wind behind us this week, but there's not a clear mandate for either Bulls or Bears at the moment, just a slightly higher probability for a move upwards.
Potentially significant Support at 2.0356. Getting there looks like we may have minor Supports at 0418, 0393, 0386, 0377.
After 0356, it's minor supports at 0346, 0333, 0310, 0300. Next biggie Support after that lot is 0283.
To the upside the Biggie Resistance is 2.0525. A bunch of smaller ones on the way up at 0431, 0445, 0467, 0499 and 0506.
Long and intermediate are up while short term is unconvincingly down to sideways.
So, I’ll have Bullish intent and I’ll be taking longer term plays to the upside, but I’ll need all the normal confirmations to do so.
Some additional confidence to that Bullish scenario if we see the Frankfurt and London opens carry out a minor stop sweep ahead of any expected upwards action.
If the shorter-term develops into a more pronounced Bear move, I’ll see no problem in taking much shorter-term Bear plays while waiting for either the intermediate and longer term to turn down, or the short-term to turn up. My metaphorical money is on the shorter-term turning up.
2.0680 looks like a good place to aim for jacinto, if we get the wind behind us this week, but there's not a clear mandate for either Bulls or Bears at the moment, just a slightly higher probability for a move upwards.
Potentially significant Support at 2.0356. Getting there looks like we may have minor Supports at 0418, 0393, 0386, 0377.
After 0356, it's minor supports at 0346, 0333, 0310, 0300. Next biggie Support after that lot is 0283.
To the upside the Biggie Resistance is 2.0525. A bunch of smaller ones on the way up at 0431, 0445, 0467, 0499 and 0506.
Long and intermediate are up while short term is unconvincingly down to sideways.
So, I’ll have Bullish intent and I’ll be taking longer term plays to the upside, but I’ll need all the normal confirmations to do so.
Some additional confidence to that Bullish scenario if we see the Frankfurt and London opens carry out a minor stop sweep ahead of any expected upwards action.
If the shorter-term develops into a more pronounced Bear move, I’ll see no problem in taking much shorter-term Bear plays while waiting for either the intermediate and longer term to turn down, or the short-term to turn up. My metaphorical money is on the shorter-term turning up.
TheBramble
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Hold Tight!!!
May have to rapidly adjust my analysis. Those crazy Japanese aren't normally known to throw caution to the winds, but they're swinging Cable like crazy!
Up 4 pips - down 8 pips - who knows where this will all end....:|
May have to rapidly adjust my analysis. Those crazy Japanese aren't normally known to throw caution to the winds, but they're swinging Cable like crazy!
Up 4 pips - down 8 pips - who knows where this will all end....:|
TheBramble
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jacinto, you don't think they're going to let taiiku no hi stop them do you? Those guys NEVER take a day off...the crazy japanese are on holiday today
Having said that, we may right now be getting the stop sweep I mentioned above.
i dont know Tony, the only one i never trust is Tokio Joe
I may take the day off. US Bond markets also closed, and UK news out and supposed to being the big mover having done nothing already, I wonder if this will move at all. you never know, maybe liquidity will dry and a move may start.
I will instead go paint a room, when I'm finished will sit have a coffee, read a book and watch the paint dry
will still monitor euryen, you never know, could give a relatively decent short.
JillyB
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More losses
Well yet another losing trade on my overnight system this morning - Friday was the same too. I was long on both trades as the high had formed last, but the early morning dips saw me stopped out between 8 and 9am both days.
I didn't trade on Friday with it being NFP day - but I did note that a signal shown at 10.00am for a trade would have been safely in before the news was released. I've noted this in my trading diary so I will remember it for next time.
My diary contains all details of trades that were triggered that day - why I did/or did not enter them; what the outcome was and what I have learnt from it. I have a section a the bottom, where I note important things as well. This is all in addition to my notebook with my profit/loss status on and my daily trading on the systems.
Well yet another losing trade on my overnight system this morning - Friday was the same too. I was long on both trades as the high had formed last, but the early morning dips saw me stopped out between 8 and 9am both days.
I didn't trade on Friday with it being NFP day - but I did note that a signal shown at 10.00am for a trade would have been safely in before the news was released. I've noted this in my trading diary so I will remember it for next time.
My diary contains all details of trades that were triggered that day - why I did/or did not enter them; what the outcome was and what I have learnt from it. I have a section a the bottom, where I note important things as well. This is all in addition to my notebook with my profit/loss status on and my daily trading on the systems.
i agree with you. just concerned a key resistance level at 440 (look at the first lower high close 20:00-24:00 on the 10th) that is the level to break to get the boat sailing IMHO
Yes, waiting for the trade to come to you, nice one J.
Why are you not trading today though? Do you envisage a tight session? From experience?
well, not from experience, but i just see the ingredients for a range.
a) no bond markets in the US and japan closed too.
b) I think the conflictive data from friday depend a lot on bond markets (NFP strong vs Fed Guy speaking that afternoon signalling more rate cuts to come).
so, with no big players around but in london, no bond markets to factor in the data mentioned, i would just rather wait. just look at the reaction to UK numbers. what was it, a 15 pip move? that just makes me think day was over before it started. But its just an opinion.
that is why the potential setup i see for euryen may just be a range and not a setup. i'd rather be flat than in a trade today.
j
well, that euryen short would have been nice from the 4hr close below resistance
wont cry over milk that didnt even spill because it didnt even get into the bottle
took the decision not to trade on rational grounds, so just wont complain.
will record the setup in my journal though.
sorry about your long S
j
trendie
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Sup/Res seems so easy and neat. Why cant I do it in real-time?
bad luck with the Long, smbtnt!
Its knowing whether the morning range is going to be touched and then rejected, or whether its going to pass through it and go to the upside.
I wonder how hans123 is getting on? hmmmmm...
bad luck with the Long, smbtnt!
Its knowing whether the morning range is going to be touched and then rejected, or whether its going to pass through it and go to the upside.
I wonder how hans123 is getting on? hmmmmm...
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oiltanker
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hi trendie
on the 15min trigger chart i take a fib of yesterdays range to give targets and use a slow stoch and 5/8 to confirm trend.
As today the 4hr 5/8 is down i would only day trade sell [although the main trend is still up so would prefer to be buying] so would be conservative for targets]. So for a sell I wait till stochs are up high crossing down, with 5 8 cross down confirm and go for 15pts
at first the price will whizz off but it always comes back to the five. i wait till price is at the 5 to enter.
i have spent the last few weeks studying trend turn patterns. there will usually be a momentum bar to push the trend the other way.
my 2 pence.
on the 15min trigger chart i take a fib of yesterdays range to give targets and use a slow stoch and 5/8 to confirm trend.
As today the 4hr 5/8 is down i would only day trade sell [although the main trend is still up so would prefer to be buying] so would be conservative for targets]. So for a sell I wait till stochs are up high crossing down, with 5 8 cross down confirm and go for 15pts
at first the price will whizz off but it always comes back to the five. i wait till price is at the 5 to enter.
i have spent the last few weeks studying trend turn patterns. there will usually be a momentum bar to push the trend the other way.
my 2 pence.
