FX Trading April 23 - April 27

[Atilla]

Cable just seems so overbought at the moment that it seems likely to have limited upside. As I said before when you have Mervyn promising to hammer inflation and the price only ticks up about 30 pips you know its run out of steam.

Markets never move in straight lines and the Dollar has just been caned to death recently. IMHO it is well due for some relief albeit temporary. I think a decent drop below $2 will see all the longs rush out and take profits and we could see a decent move lower into the 1.97s at least.

I think that's because the news was already in the price as they say.

Whilst the DOW is surging ahead the $ will continue to weaken as excess supply of dollars to finance trade.

The DOW has to turn down before the $ might strengthen.

Once again catch 22 as if DOW turns interest rates likely to fall and so $ weaken more. Only in the short run. Down turn in US economy will lead to strengthening of the $ imo.

 

[29Investments]

I think that's because the news was already in the price as they say.

Whilst the DOW is surging ahead the $ will continue to weaken as excess supply of dollars to finance trade.

The DOW has to turn down before the $ might strengthen.

Once again catch 22 as if DOW turns interest rates likely to fall and so $ weaken more. Only in the short run. Down turn in US economy will lead to strengthening of the $ imo.

Still not sure about this as with DOW surging and $ weak people will see US equities as attractive and buy $ to pay for them.

Anyhow....time will tell

 

[a_gnome]

morning,

im not happy with cable and will wait until this consolidation is over. otherwise, for me scalping opps only on this pair.

euroyen is at resistance, and could give a short entry. will wait for setup or clean break of multiyear high.
usdyen is breaking out of a triangle and could be ripe for 100 pips on the long side.
usdchf has a rather interesting long potential on a break of 1.2060.

seems i will have to sit on my hands and wait for confirmation on setups on the 240 min charts.

besides, tomorrow is the 27th right HP?

good trading

j

Morning all,
Thought I would add my 2p's worth to the mix. IMHO Cable is in a congestion phase at the moment on the 4 hour chart so it's going to be tough trading there. I agree with Jacinto that there are other markets out there that at present are offerring better trading opportunities.

I've been trading USDCHF this week which I don't normally bother with but it's looking relatively "clean" compared to cable. I've got a long on at present from 2049. EURJPY also worth a look as again it's looking clean and is moving well though the fact that it's up against resistance means that it could get choppy.

I think that, in general, trading when conditions aren't right just leads to losses, frustration and a loss of confidence. If one's favoured market isn't moving as one wishes then one must either sit on one's hands or find another market that is moving better.

 

[Atilla]

Still not sure about this as with DOW surging and $ weak people will see US equities as attractive and buy $ to pay for them.

Anyhow....time will tell

I'm not a 100% on the reasoning either 29, it is one of the difficult ones to explain or justify.

Maybe some statistical observations or studies could be made. One could build a case both ways.

I'm in a spot of bother. Wondering weather to close or not but just watching gold go up from 685 to 687 is making me think the fall is a blib. Just hope it doesn't go blib blib blib...

 

[Atilla]

I'm out - 23 pip loss.

 

[The Pearl Fisher]

Closed GBP and EUR short trades.


Long GBP at 1.9986 and EUR at 1.3614



Stop losses for the long trades are 1.9940 1.3568

If hit the profit and loss on this trade will be flat (+-0)

 

[Offshore Trader]

Closed 1/2 shorts at 92 but hoping that we might see a proper move and at least a test of 1.9970.

 

[The Pearl Fisher]

Closed GBP and EUR short trades.


Long GBP at 1.9986 and EUR at 1.3614

Cumulative profit on short trades (+92) used as Stop losses for the reversed long trades.

 

[jacinto]

Morning
I don't want to get caught up there this morning with a long
short a 049
just going to see what happens

good call! you sure it was the 27th and not the 26th.

j

 

[29Investments]

Closed GBP and EUR short trades.


Long GBP at 1.9986 and EUR at 1.3614

What made you go long here TPF ?

 

[oiltanker]

just got both my cable and euro shorts limited for a small 33 pt profit. i was glad to get out of the euro and will reposition shorts higher up.

are people getting out of these where nothing much is happening to buy yen to go into the stock market?

yen is racing up but not too worried about being in the red on the long term shorts as it gives the opportunity for small 20pt shorts.

 

[Atilla]

With the benefit of hindsight, BBs were a better call than SARs. On the 3min charts I now see a BB break out which I didn't see before.

I''m now long from 1.9996

 

[The Pearl Fisher]

What made you go long here TPF ?

Just speed of the down spike.

 

[Atilla]

With the benefit of hindsight, BBs were a better call than SARs. On the 3min charts I now see a BB break out which I didn't see before.

I''m now long from 1.9996

I'm personally announcing today to be a FX holiday... I'm out and will not touch cable for the rest of the day...

 

[Phil Mibbutz]

Long at 965, out when/if it hits 90.

 

[Offshore Trader]

Clsoed 1/2 of remaining postion at 70 and will be out for day if this goes back above 20000 but a nice move this morning and some nice profit

 

[The Pearl Fisher]

Closed GBP and EUR short trades.


Long GBP at 1.9986 and EUR at 1.3614

Stop losses for the long trades are 1.9940 1.3568

If hit the P/L on this trade will be flat (+-0)

 

[oiltanker]

Long at 965, out when/if it hits 90.

nice idea phil

 

[trendie]

any chance of a pullback to 2.0022 or 30 before falling again? ( 50% and 38% fib-retrace)

EDIT: sorry! 2.0010 / 20 for 50% and 62% fib-retrace.

 

[The Pearl Fisher]

Long trades exited at 1.9990 and 1.3614 (Flat) Cumulative (+95)

Reversed Back to my Short Positions at Exit price


Sold GBP at 1.9990 and EUR at 1.3614

Stop Losses at 2.0040 and 1.3654