FX Trading April 23 - April 27

[The Pearl Fisher]

the tight 40 pt euro range seems constipated. is this central banks intervention that is preventing it from racing away?

What is the ECB policy on the EURO racing away?

IT's OK I think I found it here:

www.ECB’s-Policy-on-the-EURO-Racing-away.com

 

[Glenbuck]

as it happens yes I am through ODL

It can happen on Currenex, especially in times of volatility when a stray bid/ask gets picked off. As long as the price was well outside the market, the normal protocol seems to be to accept the cancellation with good grace rather than possibly antagonising whoever was on the other side.

 

[oiltanker]

What is the ECB policy on the EURO racing away?

IT's OK I think I found it here:

www.ECB’s-Policy-on-the-EURO-Racing-away.com

thanks.

didn't soros make a billion with that kind of knowledge ie betting that the market is stronger than the central bank?

 

[The Pearl Fisher]

thanks.

didn't soros make a billion with that kind of knowledge ie betting that the market is stronger than the central bank?

Well yes and no, but it was a little bit before my currency trading days. I only started trading currencies around 1994.

 

[dc2000]

thanks.

didn't soros make a billion with that kind of knowledge ie betting that the market is stronger than the central bank?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday


will this mean NO rise from the BOE in May yes siree bob but then you already new that

 

[The Pearl Fisher]

Cable Possibly seeing a move to around 1.9960 - 1.9980 in overnight trading tonight (Asian session). Supported by the fresh emergence of good Dollar buying which has kept cable on a tight rein throughout today’s trading.



TPF

 

[oiltanker]

yes although the dollar is weak it also looks incredibly cheap and a fantastic long term bet? everything still looks overbought and flat for the past 6 days. all it needs is one or two big players to take profits to set the pack rolling downhill?

both the late evening cable and euro shorts kicked in their limit orders for another 34 points in the bag.

set up some more small shorts on yen but left cable and euro alone to see what the state is in the morning as the long term sells are still in the red [50pts total ] waiting for the big drop.

 

[hornblower]

Morning
I don't want to get caught up there this morning with a long
short a 049
just going to see what happens

 

[Atilla]

Morning
I don't want to get caught up there this morning with a long
short a 049
just going to see what happens

I've lost my compass. Not sure where we go from here with the DOW breaking new highs.

To see the DOW at 13000 is like seeing the Pyramids upside down :-0

As some people have pointed out there is some concerted action going on to keep the $ where it is. Surely it must be in the interest of everyone that we have a controlled decline or levelling of the dollar and $2 seems to be a good mark.

I'm hoping for a dull boring day where the dollar moves sideways in a narrow range and perhaps I'll get to use my 10m & 1m charts in quick scalps. But that's only a maybe.

I'm likely to stay out most of today...


Good luck traders.

 

[jacinto]

morning,

im not happy with cable and will wait until this consolidation is over. otherwise, for me scalping opps only on this pair.

euroyen is at resistance, and could give a short entry. will wait for setup or clean break of multiyear high.
usdyen is breaking out of a triangle and could be ripe for 100 pips on the long side.
usdchf has a rather interesting long potential on a break of 1.2060.

seems i will have to sit on my hands and wait for confirmation on setups on the 240 min charts.

besides, tomorrow is the 27th right HP?

good trading

j

 

[trendie]

I agree with jacinto, re: consolidation.

I am getting signals, but potential reward is only 30 pips, so not worth it.
quite choppy, and narrow rangey.

frustrating. have stopped myself from switching to 15-mins just to have something to do.
sticking to 30-mins and 4-hrs.
however, I have a generally up-trend signal (since Moinday evening), so only looking to buy, at the moment.
but because of the rangeyness, the signals arent trustworthy.

EDIT: still using Slingshots, ie; pullbacks.

 

[The Pearl Fisher]

Don’t want to be repeating what has already been clearly and well stated.

Clearly no positive direction either way overnight. Disappointing to the extreme. I continue to see little or limited upward movement for cable over the morning session favouring a break lower into the afternoon, all be it in stops and starts.



TPF

 

[Atilla]

I agree with jacinto, re: consolidation.

I am getting signals, but potential reward is only 30 pips, so not worth it.
quite choppy, and narrow rangey.

frustrating. have stopped myself from switching to 15-mins just to have something to do.
sticking to 30-mins and 4-hrs.
however, I have a generally up-trend signal (since Moinday evening), so only looking to buy, at the moment.
but because of the rangeyness, the signals arent trustworthy.

EDIT: still using Slingshots, ie; pullbacks.

Looking at 10 - 3 & 1 min charts there is a clear range between 2.0030 and 2.0050.

Range check 20 pips.

Building up to a buy in the next 5 10 mins I reckon.

Waiting for 3min price to cut MA9 & 18 averages.

10min oscillators in buy pos. 3min charts MACD still showing down.

This is what I'm looking at.

Considering going long around 2.0033. Not worth it around 39 which is where it is now.

 

[jacinto]

I agree with jacinto, re: consolidation.

frustrating. have stopped myself from switching to 15-mins just to have something to do.
sticking to 30-mins and 4-hrs.

EDIT: still using Slingshots, ie; pullbacks.

how about moving down to 1 min for scalps

serious, have you looked at other pairs. i have found that when euryen trends in the asian session, there are really nice scapling opps using a 15 and 1 minute combo during the european session, and nicer moves using 15 and 60 min combo in the NY session.

the other one to have a look at is eurchf. that pair doesnt have the large moves of say, cable, but it is rather easy to trade on the 60 and 240 min chart, and the lack of larger moves can be compensated with larger size of trade.

also, have a look at chfyen. 10 pips away from a nice break that could give another relatively decent move.
j

by the way, I like the idea of Hornblower's 28 day cycle on cable. wouldnt mind a nice short tomorrow.

 

[Atilla]

Just gone long @2.0033. SL @20, Target @45+

 

[trendie]

jacinto,

since I am still SBing, I take the spread into consideration.
for GBPUSD, the spread is 3 pips. allowing for some wiggle factor, its a bit more.

so, I dont see anything less than 50-60 pips reward as worth taking.
need to build up to DMA before I am prepared to look to smaller time-frames.

Atilla: I have removed just about ALL indicators except my trusty sling-shots and some Boll-bands, and just 2 EMAs (no Hull-MAs, just normal EMAs).
Have gotten rid of ADX, MACD, etc. Want to look at dojis (pin-bars) as getting me into trades before the indicators signal anything, so I am reluctant to add more indicators. Still getting withdrawal symptoms occasionally, but I staying as clean as I can.

 

[Atilla]

jacinto,

since I am still SBing, I take the spread into consideration.
for GBPUSD, the spread is 3 pips. allowing for some wiggle factor, its a bit more.

so, I dont see anything less than 50-60 pips reward as worth taking.
need to build up to DMA before I am prepared to look to smaller time-frames.

Atilla: I have removed just about ALL indicators except my trusty sling-shots and some Boll-bands, and just 2 EMAs (no Hull-MAs, just normal EMAs).
Have gotten rid of ADX, MACD, etc. Want to look at dojis (pin-bars) as getting me into trades before the indicators signal anything, so I am reluctant to add more indicators. Still getting withdrawal symptoms occasionally, but I staying as clean as I can.

I have my favourites like BBs and MAs but I'm still experimenting. Recently into Stnd Error Channels.

I agree reg. oscillators but at short term sideway moves they are good.

I may be in trouble as I've just seen Oscar two pin bars same size but in reverse downway move. He says it should be good for two 10min periods so watching a bit of a move down.

Will hold as I'm only 1 pip down so far.

Regarding scalping I think anything above 10 pips will do me. That's after the 3 point spread.

This is the bigger picture I'm looking at within the 10 - 3 - 1 min trades.

 

[jacinto]

jacinto,

since I am still SBing, I take the spread into consideration.
for GBPUSD, the spread is 3 pips. allowing for some wiggle factor, its a bit more.

so, I dont see anything less than 50-60 pips reward as worth taking.
need to build up to DMA before I am prepared to look to smaller time-frames.

Atilla: I have removed just about ALL indicators except my trusty sling-shots and some Boll-bands, and just 2 EMAs (no Hull-MAs, just normal EMAs).
Have gotten rid of ADX, MACD, etc. Want to look at dojis (pin-bars) as getting me into trades before the indicators signal anything, so I am reluctant to add more indicators. Still getting withdrawal symptoms occasionally, but I staying as clean as I can.

fair enough trendie. good idea about killing the indicators.

since i have a lot of time on my hands, sprog in school , i have the time to draw rectangles.
are we seeing a mirror image of the lows of the move. see rectangles. i wonder if history repeats itself? and then you have the 27th tomorrow.

 

[29Investments]

Cable just seems so overbought at the moment that it seems likely to have limited upside. As I said before when you have Mervyn promising to hammer inflation and the price only ticks up about 30 pips you know its run out of steam.

Markets never move in straight lines and the Dollar has just been caned to death recently. IMHO it is well due for some relief albeit temporary. I think a decent drop below $2 will see all the longs rush out and take profits and we could see a decent move lower into the 1.97s at least.

 

[Atilla]

fair enough trendie. good idea about killing the indicators.

since i have a lot of time on my hands, sprog in school , i have the time to draw rectangles.
are we seeing a mirror image of the lows of the move. see rectangles. i wonder if history repeats itself? and then you have the 27th tomorrow.

imo, not yet.

At the bottom square I see a higher higher and a higher low before the break out after 1.9430

At the top square I see a lower low but not the

a) higher highs or
b) higher lows

to confirm the new uptrend.