ftse (and other) 20ema crossover and test

[StephenMcCreedy]

hi all. i've been posting on the ftse big ben thread but think i might be dragging it off topic.

i've bee trading a system of late that seems to be doing ok. some people will be unimpressed by the low figures but they seem to work out ok for me.

in line with the idea that consistent entry, money management and discipline are the cornerstones of trading i'm trying to embody that in to something very simple that might be useful for other people.

my method is simple. i overlay an 20 period exponential average on the 5 min chart of various markets. mainly the ftse, the dow, eur/usd and gbp/usd.

my aim is to wait for the market to change from above to below (or vice versa) and then retest the line. i then enter in the direction of the change. it is simplicity itself.

i have a stop of 6 points (on all markets) and limit of 12 points (on all markets).

i don't (try not to) fiddle with the stops or targets but when i figure out how to be more complex i'm going to look to place several trades at the same level with some to exit at -6, -12, and some to hang on for more.

i am going to post set ups of this kind and welcome others to do the same. all i ask is that they are 20ema and 5 min.

any feedback beyond my typos, lack of grammar and spelling and not knowing there from their are welcome.

thanks

stephen

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

to get the ball rolling is a trade on eur/usd as you can see my entry was rubbish and late i'd really want to have been in around the level my stop is now placed.

it still looks ok though and is moving in the right direction so far.

my hit rate is slightly better than 50/50, poor you might say. but with a rrr of 2 it's plenty to make money.

what's even better is all the stress of trading has gone!

 

[Lord Flasheart]

It could never work as a stand alone system, but your R/R and money management are making it work. Ive spent years looking at every possible method and have come back to the simple things and they work best.
The first thing we learn about in trading is a moving average,then we go on to re invent the wheel many times,when often we have gone past a great method because it had a few losers or we made it a losing system. Good luck

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

and i'm stopped. better entry would have certainly given me more chance but doesn't look like any market has the legs to move this afternoon. but you get the jist. feel free to get involved.

 

[Lord Flasheart]

youd have been slaughtered over the last few days.Hope your not trading this live.6 pips is a blink in forex markets

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

you said it yourself Lord Flasheart; consistent entry, money management and discipline!

what this did for me was stopped me fighting the trend and getting emotional.

with a 2 rrr and consistent entry criteria I have a chance.

the other factors i should mention is that if the market crosses back up or down i exit before the stop whether in profit or not.

also i have a policy that if i lose three straight i stop for the day.

as i've said on other pages. if you can take 4 points per day average off the market at £1pp for every thousand in your account you can get 100% a year.

this is not pie in the sky it's very doable.

if you're addicted to trading it won't work. if you want to double your money each year it just might.

let's see what tomorrow brings.

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

youd have been slaughtered over the last few days.Hope your not trading this live.6 pips is a blink in forex markets

and 12 points in 2 blinks.

i've traded this live for weeks on ftse (52% win rate) and dow (50% win rate) and only now on eur/usd and gbp/usd.

the key is filtering a good signal from a bad one. the 10:20 entry on eur/usd was the nice one for the day. sharp sell off with brisk bounce but one that didn't really form a bottom in to a steeply falling average. lovely. if i'd been on it.

thanks for getting involved. off the for the day

 

[advfntrader]

you've just mentioned the problem...."the key is filtering a good signal from a bad one"...this brings in a discretionary element and this means emotions come back into the equation. Price moves so much on 5 min timeframe also, why not wait for the hourly to also touch off the MAs

 

[ha0dho]

Hi stephen how many setups have u had for this method, I just wondering the number of entries u have to get ur win rate.

 

[pboyles]

and i'm stopped. better entry would have certainly given me more chance but doesn't look like any market has the legs to move this afternoon. but you get the jist. feel free to get involved.

I have a suggestion for you based on something I often look at when trading futures. I would caution that I dont trade FX and wouldn't recommend anyone else does either due to the fact that it is not traded on an exchange and the price and spread is at the mercy of your broker. In any case this is what I see on your charts.

For a full explanation of PIN bars see the james16 chart thread on forexfactory.com

Hopefully you can see the text and arrows I have added to your chart. If you care to post a few more I'll look through them and do the same thing.

 

[neil]

I have a suggestion for you based on something I often look at when trading futures. I would caution that I dont trade FX and wouldn't recommend anyone else does either due to the fact that it is not traded on an exchange and the price and spread is at the mercy of your broker. In any case this is what I see on your charts.

For a full explanation of PIN bars see the james16 chart thread on forexfactory.com

Hopefully you can see the text and arrows I have added to your chart. If you care to post a few more I'll look through them and do the same thing.

Similar to Jankone thread on FF where he also uses BB's and RS1(when playing divergence)

 

[Splitlink]

hi all. i've been posting on the ftse big ben thread but think i might be dragging it off topic.

i've bee trading a system of late that seems to be doing ok. some people will be unimpressed by the low figures but they seem to work out ok for me.

in line with the idea that consistent entry, money management and discipline are the cornerstones of trading i'm trying to embody that in to something very simple that might be useful for other people.

my method is simple. i overlay an 20 period exponential average on the 5 min chart of various markets. mainly the ftse, the dow, eur/usd and gbp/usd.

my aim is to wait for the market to change from above to below (or vice versa) and then retest the line. i then enter in the direction of the change. it is simplicity itself.

i have a stop of 6 points (on all markets) and limit of 12 points (on all markets).

i don't (try not to) fiddle with the stops or targets but when i figure out how to be more complex i'm going to look to place several trades at the same level with some to exit at -6, -12, and some to hang on for more.

i am going to post set ups of this kind and welcome others to do the same. all i ask is that they are 20ema and 5 min.

any feedback beyond my typos, lack of grammar and spelling and not knowing there from their are welcome.

thanks

stephen

I'm with you on this one. We are very similar.

 

[pboyles]

Similar to Jankone thread on FF where he also uses BB's and RS1(when playing divergence)

I assume you mean Jacko, unfortunately it seems he was a bit of a fraud and has since disappeared with a lot of money. I didnt follow his methods but I have heard that it was all hype and didnt really work well in practice.

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

first one of the day.

i've said before i try to finish for the day by ten and today sums up why.

i missed this trade but it was a perfect set up with a 20ema bounce coinciding with a previous support, now resistance area. with the ftse now at 5410 there was 20 odd points to be taken first thing. if i can get one of these first thing i stop for the day.

 

[tomorton]

MA crossovers are not the greatest signals but they can be made to pay if they are well managed. With even a 50% win rate, if pips to stop are half pips to target, and both are set at levels the market can reach in a sensible time frame, this will pay.

However, I don't think MA crossover signals are open to much refinement - it's impenetrable which will be the break-out and which is just another chop that hits the stop. And when the MA crossover break-out comes and gives extraordinary pips, the system needs a mechanism to allow this gain to be banked, and it needs to be much more than 2x stop.

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

i don't think refinement is always the answer. for me robustness is the answer. like your 8-10 range play this has a 'reason' behind it. when a market that is falling experiences a lull in selling pressure or finds a little buying interest the price rises for a time before the underlying trend is resumed. this is just a method to define a consistent entry point for placing a bet that the underlying trend will resume.

i think it comes down to what you want. i spent 10 years trying to trade perfectly and did ok but was always dumping something that worked quite well to find something that worked better.

now i want something that works ok in most market conditions and can be traded with defined risk and reward.

my vision if you like is that this will form maybe 25% of my overall plan. i might trade this 8-9 and 2.30-3.30 or something and then trade a breakout like the big ben from 10 and from 4 on the dow.

as i've said many time on here. 4 pips per day with a £1pp per £1,000 bet sizing will double your money in a year. that is not a bad return and will do me just fine.

as a sign i once in a pub read 'don't leave somewhere you're having a good time to go somewhere you think you'll have a better time'. that is my trading ethos!

 

[Lord Flasheart]

have you looked at all the other markets today and how they got on

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

eur/usd would be chopped to bits. i guess other fx would be the same. i don't reckon this is fx friendly without increasing the rrr a lot.

really i want to do it on ftse only but when i get bored i have a habit of moving to other markets.

one thing i've learned is often literally as early as 8.30 the best chance for the day, or certainly the morning has gone.

when i was in london everyone seemed to start thinning out by 9pm to the gym, breakfast etc. the people set their till 4.30 without moving seemed to be doing the worst!

can't wait for the markets to start getting busy again though. it's too wet to play golf at the moment.

 

[pboyles]

eur/usd would be chopped to bits. i guess other fx would be the same. i don't reckon this is fx friendly without increasing the rrr a lot.

really i want to do it on ftse only but when i get bored i have a habit of moving to other markets.

one thing i've learned is often literally as early as 8.30 the best chance for the day, or certainly the morning has gone.

when i was in london everyone seemed to start thinning out by 9pm to the gym, breakfast etc. the people set their till 4.30 without moving seemed to be doing the worst!

can't wait for the markets to start getting busy again though. it's too wet to play golf at the moment.

Look at the Bund and Eurostoxx, that should keep you busy.

 

[Splitlink]

I prefer to look at all the time frames. This morning I latched onto the 4 hour and have entered. The average is up while the others are going down, so I figured that there was about 25-30 poinTs possible before the price reaches the average on the 30 minute.

Now I have a pin on the 30 min chart so this may be a good one.