FTSE 100 September 2004

[barjon]

peter

I doubt that the amateurs have enough money in play to satisfy the voracious appetites of the big "own account" boys. I suspect they take the bulk from the big "public and cash flow driven" boys who probably don't mind too much so long as their competitors lose a bit more than they do and their marketing departments can keep dreaming up schemes to bring more public money into the coffers (or is that too cynical a view).

So far as ftse is concerned it certainly seems nervous. Relief when the DOW hasn't tanked the evening before sends it up smartly in the morning when it just sits there looking nervous and then dropping off a bit in anticipation of DOW opening. When DOW opens without tanking it has another relief rally then starts getting worried again. Almost as if it wants to go north and play but very worried that big brother next door might mug it before getting to the park. As you (and the others) say - eyes on the DOW.

 

[peterpr]

peter

I suspect they take the bulk from the big "public and cash flow driven" boys who probably don't mind too much so long as their competitors lose a bit more than they do and their marketing departments can keep dreaming up schemes to bring more public money into the coffers (or is that too cynical a view).

Nope - pretty much on the button I'd say.

I'm away from it all in the Emerald Isle until Monday next week now - still short at @ 4560 from Tuesday last week . Stops in place but no limits and wondering if I'll be a good few quid the poorer and eating that busby when I get back.

 

[bracke]

All very quiet on this thread as we await in anticipation or trepidation ( depending on position ) ftse ability to reach 4600 and beyond. As has been mentioned previously the rise or fall is largely in US hands.

The US election draws closer ( 2nd November I'm told ) and maybe a honeymoon period beyond that into early next year. Then maybe chickens or should I say Bald Eagles come home to roost.

So being my cynical self, what chance the manipulators drive up the markets on the back of an election and pull the rug when it suits. Or do we really think that the bear is finished and the bull is back

Regards

bracke

 

[barjon]

Evenin' Bracke - gone like the Marie Celeste on here lately.

Had a little probe, by a point, beyond recent highs but then a retreat and finishing up with a fairly ominous looking long legged doji harami. Mid point of last long(ish) up candle has held so far (co-incidentally it's at the same level as the 28/6 high). If that goes, followed by the extreme low of that candle you beary boys may be in business. That's if it doesn't shoot north of course

imo the bull's still pawing the ground and I won't be convinced the bear's back until that well tested 4300 level goes. Funny you think of it the other way round, but then you always were a southerner at heart

good trading all

jon

 

[alliance]

Hi Marie & Celeste et al (aka bracke and jon)

Been away/busy over last 10 days! Since I am no longer on speaking terms with the ftse *sob*, I am now investigating/researching other avenues, however u haven't got rid of me totally.......

 

[bracke]

Evenin' Bracke - gone like the Marie Celeste on here lately.

Had a little probe, by a point, beyond recent highs but then a retreat and finishing up with a fairly ominous looking long legged doji harami. Mid point of last long(ish) up candle has held so far (co-incidentally it's at the same level as the 28/6 high). If that goes, followed by the extreme low of that candle you beary boys may be in business. That's if it doesn't shoot north of course

imo the bull's still pawing the ground and I won't be convinced the bear's back until that well tested 4300 level goes. Funny you think of it the other way round, but then you always were a southerner at heart

good trading all

jon

beary bracke to bully barjon

A pull back by the dow yesterday but is it a pause before moving higher and sucking in more of you bully boys.

I am out of this market because I am not convinced it's plain sailing from here. I will await events and look for the fall after the election.

Regards

bracke

 

[bracke]

Hi Marie & Celeste et al (aka bracke and jon)

Been away/busy over last 10 days! Since I am no longer on speaking terms with the ftse *sob*, I am now investigating/researching other avenues, however u haven't got rid of me totally.......

Hello alliance nice to see you return. Has ftse been nasty to you again, here's a kiss to make it better.

Just when you think you are making headway the market gives you a nasty nip.

Have you started your course yet?

 

[alliance]

Hi bracke

awwwww..tnx 4 the kiss...must let the ftse beat me more often....NOT!

No to course question....was originally mid sept, but since thats here now.........
Wish Stu would get a move on

 

[bracke]

Hello All

ftse clawing its way to 4600 as I type. If it gets beyond 4600 I read that the next resistance is at 4680 which is a key Fibonacci retracement level from the whole bear move down ( perhaps those with a Fibonacci bent would care to comment )

I further read that failure to hold above 4600 suggests a pull backs to 4540, 4475, 4250. So There.

alliance

I like the avatar. One picture worth a thousand words.

Now that you have forsaken ftse what are you looking at now ?

Regards

bracke

 

[alliance]

Hi bracke:
Glad u approve of avatar

Stu must have heard us talking bout course y'day, coz late a'noon I got an em@il with user name and password etc for his site. First 2 course modules due to be delivered by snail mail next week...so getting ready for the off.....clean desk..sharpened pencils..lol

No trades currently!

 

[barjon]

bracke

?? I've got 4870 as the 38% and 5110 as the 50%

 

[barjon]

whoops!! no I haven't it's 4683 like yours!!!!

 

[barjon]

It's winding itself up so tight it's in danger of disappearing up its proverbial. But when it blows...........

 

[tradesmart]

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showpost.php?p=126621&postcount=25

RSI is currently toppy but not showing any ND yet, so very likely we will see another run upwards to test 4600, when the current, so far, minor retracement has run its course.....

4600 reached/slightly breached today and certainly looking even more toppy on RSI with shades of early ND, but still room for a 'sting in the tail' foray north to catch the premature bears by surprise imho……

I think that I’d like to see a lower high before making a decision…..

(strictly imho…….. )

 

[pb]

I will add to my short positions on Monday at market open. DJIA is in a nice downtrend. FTSE will follow in no time. All 4 major indices (DJIA, S&P, NASDAQ, FTSE) go in tandem and Dow shows way to everyone else.

 

[barjon]

well i don't suppose you beary boys have had an exciting day but the botherhood of bulls have enjoyed it

 

[tradesmart]

Friday 17/09/04 - 4600 reached/slightly breached today and certainly looking even more toppy on RSI with shades of early ND, but still room for a 'sting in the tail' foray north to catch the premature bears by surprise imho……

Well, yeh.........the "sting in the tail" is in position.........

genuine breakout or fake 'pump'n'dump........?

if it's the former, 4800 ish could be on the cards.......

 

[pb]

Why I am bearish on the general market, including FTSE:

1. I am a believer of 4 year market cycles. The last market top occurred in late 1999/early 2000 (depending on which index you are looking at). We should be at the next market top about 4 years from that. Now do your sums. (Note that this theory also means that market bottoms occur roughly every 4 years. The last two major bottoms were Oct '98 and then in March '03. Now do your sums)

2. The recent rally has been on pathetically low volume, although admittedly the volume has picked up now , only very slightly. Every time the indices fell, they fell on large volumes and volume dried up as soon as the indices turned upwards.

3. Dow, S&P, NASDAQ are all in a prominent downtrend. There is no way FTSE will be bullish while those 3 are going down. This has never happened, this will never happen. Just impossible.

4. What we are now seeing in FTSE is a widening top formation. This is exactly what happens before a big fall. Just look at the Dow and FTSE charts of May '99 to March '00.

These are my arguments. I'd be very interested to hear the bullish side: always keen to learn.

Thanks.

Pratik B, Norwich

 

[bracke]

Why I am bearish on the general market, including FTSE:

1. I am a believer of 4 year market cycles. The last market top occurred in late 1999/early 2000 (depending on which index you are looking at). We should be at the next market top about 4 years from that. Now do your sums. (Note that this theory also means that market bottoms occur roughly every 4 years. The last two major bottoms were Oct '98 and then in March '03. Now do your sums)

2. The recent rally has been on pathetically low volume, although admittedly the volume has picked up now , only very slightly. Every time the indices fell, they fell on large volumes and volume dried up as soon as the indices turned upwards.

3. Dow, S&P, NASDAQ are all in a prominent downtrend. There is no way FTSE will be bullish while those 3 are going down. This has never happened, this will never happen. Just impossible.

4. What we are now seeing in FTSE is a widening top formation. This is exactly what happens before a big fall. Just look at the Dow and FTSE charts of May '99 to March '00.

These are my arguments. I'd be very interested to hear the bullish side: always keen to learn.

Thanks.

Pratik B, Norwich

1 Does the market know it's in a cycle, the market will do what the market will do not what it ought to do.

2 Agree

3. If there is one thing I have learned about the markets its never to think it can or can't do something. Something may be unlikely but it is not impossible.

4 Maybe but see 1.

I am also bearish but suspect it may not come to pass until after the US election. In the meantime who knows how high the markets will go before the drop.

Regards

bracke

 

[barjon]

pratbh/tradesmart

I'm only bullish because nothing yet has told me to be bearish. The 29/6 failure to keep going to new highs was a bearish warning, but was nullified when the 4300 held (twice) and we were back to bullish momentum when the current run moved past the 6/8 high.

I can't get to grips with this volume stuff since for every sell there must be a buy and vice versa. You might equally argue that the low volume on the recent way up was because there was not much supply (no keenness to sell) and buyers needed to bid up to get filled. Then, when higher volume came in on the down moves you could argue that this supply was met by eager buyers who soaked up all that came on offer.

For me, the next bearish warning will come if we back off from this resistance, with a stronger warning if the fib50% goes and which will eventually be confirmed if 4300 area goes. I'll still be favouring longs until that first warning.