FTSE 100 - May

[mully]

With the 50% fib level (4418) level blown away this morning, the next possible support level is the 62% fib (4405) of the 4363-4472 move.

I posted the relevant chart

 

[mully]

Here is something for fun.

For all you perfect sighters. (I were glasses, so I am excused!)

Is this a potential head and shoulder pattern?

or is this just all dandruff.

 

[barjon]

....and the bottom of the long candle @ 4395 that gave good support previously (note: it's eod support)

 

[Hooya]

finally our c wave is here. Would like to ask Bonsai about the ab part of it as there are two possible ways to count it imo. but thats for the experts. Gap and fib hit as you say at 403 but I can also see it going to 80s if it wishes but definitely will be looking for long signals today

 

[Fluke]

Hooya.
Yes if it continues down 4386 is the next move,Could move up off 403 though.

 

[Hooya]

first support is 96.....then trendling support , fibs and general support in low 80s..a la Fluke's post

 

[splasher]

Mully et al,
from reading your posts you seem to follow the ftse cash.
If that is so do you trdae the cash on spreadbets or trade the actual futures?
Also if so why do you focus on the cash rather than the futures for analysis?

Just interested as i trdae the futures and watch only the futures, sort of letting the cash look after itself, so am using slightly different levels from those discussed on the board

Just wondered why the cash was king so speak?

 

[Hooya]

If that is so do you trdae the cash on spreadbets ..yup in my case.

Because, chart/ data feeds are cheaper, spreadbetters offer 24 hour cash and have a spread of 2, cash chart is smoother imo than futures and thus easier TA. But I wouldnt say it is king

 

[barjon]

splasher - me too (a la hooya). we're always having this argument about what drives what and since the cash is supposedly claculated from the futures I suppose you'd have to say futures are king!!

 

[KJH]

Mully et al,
from reading your posts you seem to follow the ftse cash.
If that is so do you trdae the cash on spreadbets or trade the actual futures?
Also if so why do you focus on the cash rather than the futures for analysis?

Just interested as i trdae the futures and watch only the futures, sort of letting the cash look after itself, so am using slightly different levels from those discussed on the board

Just wondered why the cash was king so speak?

Hi Splasher,
I trade the futures on Ib but I see most of the contributors do the cash via spreadbets.
Whatever, the futures are of the cash, so I do ALL my analysis on the cash. The futures is just the vehicle. Where the cash goes the futures must end up..... IMHO I'd take notcie of the cash--the levels are much smoother also from an analysis point of view.......
kjh
PS Sorry Bracke-- I beg to differ -- which is the derivate FTSE100 Index or the LIFFE Futures ?

 

[bracke]

I note that the ftse gapped on opening by 20 points

On the basis that the ftse likes to fill its gaps, is this a buying opportunity particularly for us monthly futures merchants?

Regards

bracke

 

[barjon]

ah bracke, if we knew the answer to that we'd all be rich. i've been long since 400 but not particularly confident about it.

 

[bracke]

barjon

You must surely be so, after all you do live in Goring on Thames - home of the rich and famous.

I am considering a trade but was somewhat rattled by reading on signalwatch that the dow is in bearish consolidation and a break is expected which could be 500 points in either direction. I would not want to be on the wrong side of it.

Regards

bracke

 

[Hooya]

"since the cash is supposedly claculated from the futures "..dont think so... is it?

Dont worry im long to but will get out if it looks like an abc which will mean another pop down below.

 

[barjon]

hooya - i thought cash came from some algorythm associated with the futures? (didn't bonsai keep reminding us we were really trading the futures?)

bracke - rich? that's always people who've got twice as much as you - like age, old people are those ten years older than you. I see you've been reading some more "it'll go up or go down" commentary maybe what transpires today will be instructive - i was quite impressed with the last major support found around 395. anyway won't your stop protect you from the worst?

 

[Hooya]

not that I know of. The Futures lead the cash but the cash is an average price at the particular moment of the 100 as far as I know..


On another note some very sad news

 

[bracke]

barjon

At what stage do people say thay are rich as opposed to quite well off.

Yes I have been reading the future tellers. I find signalwatch useful for the dow charts and support and resistance points but I am unimpressed with their trading. They are -60 points since 1/4/04. They are also fence sitters. On occasions they have taken a three way stance - might go up, might go down, might go sideways and always give two options.

Why were you "quite impressed with the last major support found around 395"?

Yes the stop would protect. I am also looking at the dow daily and futures prices which are down which is putting me off.

Regards

bracke

 

[barjon]

hooya

this was a reply i got from bonsai in march which i thought represented the position.

yes but you are not trading the index - ever.

you are trading the futures minus an allowance for fair value.

whether the market is Liffe or Globex doesnt really matter from this point of view.

 

[Hooya]

I think he meant that the futures (which are the cash +/- fairvalue) lead the cash not that its calculated the other way around. BUt does it really matter one just have a small time value added in ??

 

[barjon]

hooya - mmm, as you say it matters not.

bracke - support from base of long down candle and tested (and held eod) with a hammer like doji which is a good reversal signal, all combined with the wyckoff volume bit (post 703 page 47). maybe i'm easily pleased!!