FTSE 100 Intraday Trading - October

[mully]

Some Perspective:

For what it is worth, the peak of the July-August 2002 rally (some call it wave 4) was 4466.4.
It is a level that is worth watching as potential resistance. It is also currently attracting the bulls to test how confident the bears really are.

Rather like the June peak of 4218.8, which was remarkedly similar to the November 2002 peak of 4218.8! That took the bulls 3 months to overcome that resistance.

 

[Wideboy]

Wednesdays are often the strong trend day of a week, wouldn't be suprised to see US follow Europes lead today.

 

[hungrybear]

Ftse above its top BB and Dow set to open above its top BB so too high a risk for a long entry now IMO. Guess its a non-trading day for me, unless we do see a decent pull-back.

Lockstock, I haven't got a clue about VA. Sorry.

 

[Wideboy]

Anyone know the VA area for Dow today?
Definitely a long day but as hb says will need to wait for a good pullback before entry.

 

[mully]

Well that was not meant to happen. The SP500 future indicated 1054 open...... and then the real men appeared . Currently 1047 oophs.

What was the bad news (10 year yields?) that snuffed Intel's good news?

 

[mully]

Interestingly, FTSE hit the bottom of todays value range at 4360 and then found support. Could be a cheap buying opportunity.

 

[mully]

Opening foray has just failed to penetrate yesterday's afternoon low. Not good for near term upside. Lets see how its handles to-days opening lows.

 

[mully]

In Market Profile terms, the opening was below yesterday's value area but within the range. ie: a market only slightly out of balance.

 

[Wideboy]

What are the boundaries of yesterdays VA please?

 

[mully]

Unlike Dr Lecter, i use D4f rolling cash quotes and that gave the value area as 4385-4360. As you know this covers 70% of the TPOs.

 

[mully]

second time lucky we have broken above yesterday's pm low and are now back into the value range.

 

[Wideboy]

Am I right in thinking that if price goes outside VA, then enters, it should fill the VA. - So we should be seeing a rise to 4385.

 

[Wideboy]

Is the df4 calculation accurate??

 

[mully]

Do not understand your comment.
Is their data correct?
Or is the calculation of the VA correct?
Please clarify?

 

[Wideboy]

Sorry, I meant do you just take their figures as correct or do they let you know the way in which they calculate them?
Is it just a number on their website which they devise?

 

[mully]

No, I run MP on a Excel spreadsheet throughout the day. So I calculate the VA every half-hour. Yesterday the VA spent all day rising, implying very bullish acceptance of higher prices. Just another chore of a full time trader, but it allows me to watch the market develop throughout the day real time. There is some debate about whether to use cash or future prices as futures do see spikes. But since they do not exist for any length of time they do not unduly effect VA calculations.

So 8.00-8.30 range 4361-4346 VA (70% of TPOs)= 4359-4348
8.00-9.00 range 4368-4346 VA (70% of TPOs) = 4362-4351

 

[hungrybear]

Morning all,

Where do d4f show their VA? If it's a function in the trading software, how do I display it (I've had a look and cant find it)?

TIA

 

[Wideboy]

It would be handy if there was a website out there that had the daily calculations for the previous days VA - is there such a place out there?

 

[mully]

Wideboy
See my message at the top of this page (17)

 

[lockstock]

This one made me chuckle & spot on.


Risk Control
"That's the problem with amateurs, they only have half a plan, the easy half. They know how much a profit they're willing to take, but they don't have the foggiest idea how much they're willing to lose. They're like a deer in the headlights, they just freeze and wait to get run over. Their plan for a position that goes south is, 'Please God, let me out of this and I'll never do it again,' but that's bullshit, because if by chance the position turns around, they'll soon forget about God. They'll go back to thinking that they're geniuses, and they'll always do it again, which means that they're sure to get caught, and get caught bad."

-Pit Bull, by Martin Schwartz, p.122-123