barjon
confirmation is a 'tricky' business.
I'm not sure you ever get 'confirmation' in this business.
its not the Church of England .
but I posted this chart on the september thread to pinpoint
support of some sort.
Turns out it was pretty good, but how far we go now is
an adventure into the future.
But
if it has any strength at all, it must surely go to 4176.
and a close at 4169 makes it look like a probability?
To be a decent pull back 4235 should be achieved.
And a new high is also possible.
I can't start a realistic and new wave count until we get at least 5 legs
and the first correction which may come tomorrow as ftse has been known to test its 1 day.
maybe then the bears will panic and that is as good a sign as
we are likely to get I think.
edit
sorry, it seems I did post the bare bones but the embellishments were posted somewhere else.
confirmation is a 'tricky' business.
I'm not sure you ever get 'confirmation' in this business.
its not the Church of England .
but I posted this chart on the september thread to pinpoint
support of some sort.
Turns out it was pretty good, but how far we go now is
an adventure into the future.
But
if it has any strength at all, it must surely go to 4176.
and a close at 4169 makes it look like a probability?
To be a decent pull back 4235 should be achieved.
And a new high is also possible.
I can't start a realistic and new wave count until we get at least 5 legs
and the first correction which may come tomorrow as ftse has been known to test its 1 day.
maybe then the bears will panic and that is as good a sign as
we are likely to get I think.
edit
sorry, it seems I did post the bare bones but the embellishments were posted somewhere else.
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barjon
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bonsai
"odd lotters orgy" luv it
it's starting the ew counts that I find most confusing. Assuming
the count started at the early March low then, with 2 corrections
(March, June), that leaves 17/9 high as the end of the third
impulse wave. So we now need to expect a five wave decline
before we can expect a further five wave upward
move?
If that's right and we have so far had 2 impulse waves down and
2 corrections (with todays maybe not finished) we can expect one
further down leg to go below 4091??
I think I've confused myself!!
jon
"odd lotters orgy" luv it
it's starting the ew counts that I find most confusing. Assuming
the count started at the early March low then, with 2 corrections
(March, June), that leaves 17/9 high as the end of the third
impulse wave. So we now need to expect a five wave decline
before we can expect a further five wave upward
move?
If that's right and we have so far had 2 impulse waves down and
2 corrections (with todays maybe not finished) we can expect one
further down leg to go below 4091??
I think I've confused myself!!jon
Barjon,
This is what I find so frustrating about EW.
I think I can clearly see 5 waves into the September peak a la SP500.
You see 3 waves into the same peak.
As they say it is all in the "eyes of the beholder"
Only history will tells who was correct.
They say that EW is crystal clear in hindsight, but frustratingly confusing in real time (unless you are Bonsai off course!!) ps. that should be taken as a compliment
This is what I find so frustrating about EW.
I think I can clearly see 5 waves into the September peak a la SP500.
You see 3 waves into the same peak.
As they say it is all in the "eyes of the beholder"
Only history will tells who was correct.
They say that EW is crystal clear in hindsight, but frustratingly confusing in real time (unless you are Bonsai off course!!) ps. that should be taken as a compliment
elliott
its really not easy to spell out the wave count since the low at 3277. This is simply to difficult a medium.
It would help considerably if you had Frost and Prechters book
as then I could refer you to quotations and/or illustrations.
But look at the action since the high in June where we had
what looks like a 5 wave sell off to 3952.
First rule of Corrections is
" there is no such thing as a 5 wave correction".
It is incomplete. All corrections take the form of ABC.
So those 5 waves make an 'A' wave.
Therefore it is my proposition that the whole of the move from
that sell off to the high at either 4299 or 4329 was the 'B' wave.
It took a long time I grant you and longer than might have been
expected.
However if you look at the action since that low, you will see a lot
of overlapping waves. This is often typical of corrective type
action.
'B' waves are notoriously difficult to count.
Since the high of 4329, you may be able to visually count 5 waves
down, making the final 'C' wave of the correction.
And as it bounced off the lower channel from 3400, and hit my
support line simultaneously, it is possible that the correction is
over.
But we probably wont feel confident of that until we break 4280
'C' waves are usually strong and go further than most people
would think.
If it is over, I would expect a quite rapid climb to a new high.
If it starts meandering too much then watch out.
So, in conclusion, its not just a case of counting the highs.
You need to make sure they are followed by an ABC as well.
I hope this helps but I suspect you wont learn too much about
elliott in this piece-meal fashion. If you are interested then
get the book. If nothing else, it will help me to explain what I am
seeing.
its really not easy to spell out the wave count since the low at 3277. This is simply to difficult a medium.
It would help considerably if you had Frost and Prechters book
as then I could refer you to quotations and/or illustrations.
But look at the action since the high in June where we had
what looks like a 5 wave sell off to 3952.
First rule of Corrections is
" there is no such thing as a 5 wave correction".
It is incomplete. All corrections take the form of ABC.
So those 5 waves make an 'A' wave.
Therefore it is my proposition that the whole of the move from
that sell off to the high at either 4299 or 4329 was the 'B' wave.
It took a long time I grant you and longer than might have been
expected.
However if you look at the action since that low, you will see a lot
of overlapping waves. This is often typical of corrective type
action.
'B' waves are notoriously difficult to count.
Since the high of 4329, you may be able to visually count 5 waves
down, making the final 'C' wave of the correction.
And as it bounced off the lower channel from 3400, and hit my
support line simultaneously, it is possible that the correction is
over.
But we probably wont feel confident of that until we break 4280
'C' waves are usually strong and go further than most people
would think.
If it is over, I would expect a quite rapid climb to a new high.
If it starts meandering too much then watch out.
So, in conclusion, its not just a case of counting the highs.
You need to make sure they are followed by an ABC as well.
I hope this helps but I suspect you wont learn too much about
elliott in this piece-meal fashion. If you are interested then
get the book. If nothing else, it will help me to explain what I am
seeing.
Last edited:
hungrybear
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Bonsai,
My concern with this move up is with this initial structure from the low. It looks like an abc from the low at 4082 to the high at 4123, which could be an A-wave. The next wave down to 4095 overlaps the top of the a of the abc, so shouldn't be a wave 4. This leaves 2 posibilities.
1. We are currently completing the C-wave of a wave 2 off the low, or:
2. wave 3 up is expanding, so the overlapping wave is wave 2 of 3 (of 1 up?)
I really don't know which it is. Any thoughts?
My concern with this move up is with this initial structure from the low. It looks like an abc from the low at 4082 to the high at 4123, which could be an A-wave. The next wave down to 4095 overlaps the top of the a of the abc, so shouldn't be a wave 4. This leaves 2 posibilities.
1. We are currently completing the C-wave of a wave 2 off the low, or:
2. wave 3 up is expanding, so the overlapping wave is wave 2 of 3 (of 1 up?)
I really don't know which it is. Any thoughts?
barjon
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bonsai
whoops - hadn't meant for you to go to so much trouble. Thanks.
I'm with you (just) but I hadn't appreciated that an a,b,c
correction could make new highs on the way, nor that the
bottom of the a could remain lower than the bottom of the c.
(if I've read your proposition right).
Also I can see 5 waves for a final c on your "odd lotters orgy"
chart above, but I can't see it on a daily bar chart where
yesterdays rise (and today) seem to be part of wave 4 with,
therefore, 5 still to come.
Please don't waste much time on this if I've misunderstood or
if it's gobbledegook. I did read F&Ps book once but I'll order it up
and do some intensive study before I raise any more questions.
cheers
jon
whoops - hadn't meant for you to go to so much trouble. Thanks.
I'm with you (just) but I hadn't appreciated that an a,b,c
correction could make new highs on the way, nor that the
bottom of the a could remain lower than the bottom of the c.
(if I've read your proposition right).
Also I can see 5 waves for a final c on your "odd lotters orgy"
chart above, but I can't see it on a daily bar chart where
yesterdays rise (and today) seem to be part of wave 4 with,
therefore, 5 still to come.
Please don't waste much time on this if I've misunderstood or
if it's gobbledegook. I did read F&Ps book once but I'll order it up
and do some intensive study before I raise any more questions.
cheers
jon
