Two observations:
The Iraq news "broke" 23.30 on Saturday if you believe the Deal4Free quote. SP500 rolling cash went vertical at that time.
Secondly, the currency markets are saying that Saddam news not material (see dollar action).
Anyway too early to be definite (must wait for actual US equity trading), but ....
The Iraq news "broke" 23.30 on Saturday if you believe the Deal4Free quote. SP500 rolling cash went vertical at that time.
Secondly, the currency markets are saying that Saddam news not material (see dollar action).
Anyway too early to be definite (must wait for actual US equity trading), but ....
hungrybear
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Bonsai,
Just back in to find that the Ftse still isn't too strong. I think the news probably pushed it further than it was ready to go, so we might see another push up to the EOD. Price still someway short of a new high though and another high now would look like wave 5 of 3, suggesting a wave 4 pullback then a wave 5 to a new high at the end of the year.
Although I'm trying to predict the turn points, and it's working quite well, the narrow range means having to take each day as it comes. On a pattern basis, a sell-off tomorrow after either a high EOD close or a gap up looks most likely. We're still some way off the top BB though, whereas the Dow/SnP are some way through theirs. or will be! Short-term Dow target was 10197, which the futures hit overnight, but the cash should get there.
Just back in to find that the Ftse still isn't too strong. I think the news probably pushed it further than it was ready to go, so we might see another push up to the EOD. Price still someway short of a new high though and another high now would look like wave 5 of 3, suggesting a wave 4 pullback then a wave 5 to a new high at the end of the year.
Although I'm trying to predict the turn points, and it's working quite well, the narrow range means having to take each day as it comes. On a pattern basis, a sell-off tomorrow after either a high EOD close or a gap up looks most likely. We're still some way off the top BB though, whereas the Dow/SnP are some way through theirs. or will be! Short-term Dow target was 10197, which the futures hit overnight, but the cash should get there.
fotheringham
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Ended up a very profitable day whereas I had feared a sound thrashing. The more I learn the less I know 
Still looks like an illuminating week ahead.
Still looks like an illuminating week ahead.
I dont know if its a tip or not but in my experience opening thrusts
on Ftse seldom go to new highs except in a bull market.
when the market shows reluctance to buy up and into resistance
at those moments, you are usually on a good thing if you go short.
anyway, file it away until the next time.
on Ftse seldom go to new highs except in a bull market.
when the market shows reluctance to buy up and into resistance
at those moments, you are usually on a good thing if you go short.
anyway, file it away until the next time.
barjon
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finirama, bonsai
A bearish gravestone doji indeed, finirama, but if you have a
charting package that disobeys the "official" rules (I'm following
this up off piste and will report back) by calling opening gaps then
todays candle is a bearish counterattack line a la bonsai's long
red. Both call market tops.
I don't think I'd trust either without confirmation because of:
a) the special saddam factor
b) the lack of good volume (again)
c) the limited up move preceding them (unless they are seen in
the context of the wider uptrend)
A bearish gravestone doji indeed, finirama, but if you have a
charting package that disobeys the "official" rules (I'm following
this up off piste and will report back) by calling opening gaps then
todays candle is a bearish counterattack line a la bonsai's long
red. Both call market tops.
I don't think I'd trust either without confirmation because of:
a) the special saddam factor
b) the lack of good volume (again)
c) the limited up move preceding them (unless they are seen in
the context of the wider uptrend)
Last edited:
morning
Where doyou want to go today ?
Back into the fold around 4330 seems a given
Down trend line from 4416 in the chart I posted was still in play
at the last time of asking. Now at 4317
Bottom trend line is at 4308
Expiry was at 4297
59% fib at 4280.
But on the bigger picture, this whole 'mess' is starting to
look like a consolidation above 4300 ?
So, after what looks like 3 or 4 failed attempts to break higher
a retest of support ,I feel , needs to take place
But that's what I thought last week and it didn't happen !
However the low on Thursday may have been a failed 5th so
it looks even more likely this time around.
Where doyou want to go today ?
Back into the fold around 4330 seems a given
Down trend line from 4416 in the chart I posted was still in play
at the last time of asking. Now at 4317
Bottom trend line is at 4308
Expiry was at 4297
59% fib at 4280.
But on the bigger picture, this whole 'mess' is starting to
look like a consolidation above 4300 ?
So, after what looks like 3 or 4 failed attempts to break higher
a retest of support ,I feel , needs to take place
But that's what I thought last week and it didn't happen !
However the low on Thursday may have been a failed 5th so
it looks even more likely this time around.
