FTSE 100 - February 2005

[peterpr]

Folks,

Any views on which direction FTSE100 is going? I have started to short at these levels, but already having doubts about my action.

My vote is for a down year on the index. Host of reasons, chief among them being the threat to the US economy and world's reserve currency status posed by the US twin deficits. The US yield curve has been flattening for 6 months or more (The UK YC inverted in December) An inverted yield curve is historically about the most reliable harbinger of a recession (6-12 months warning); Stats say UK manufacturing was in recession in December etc - Governments can see it coming quite clearly and will do all in their power to avoid it - but you can't fart against thunder as the saying goes.

As for the short term (next couple of weeks) my call is for more FTSE upside after a correction to around 5000 or so.

 

[barjon]

Well I know I'm stuck in the bull enclosure but 7000????

One has to think it's time for some sort of correction or flattening out but there will be a lot of money swilling about over the next month or so as the funds' marketing men get busy on the back of the rise through 5000. It's got to go somewhere

 

[gullible]

Gentlemen,

Thank you for the responses. Still learning my self, I have no reasons to backup my short, but I belive we may well see 5000 levels in next week or so, before resuming i's upward trend

 

[dacheif]

America loves its cheerleaders doesn't it? Great for football games I guess but hardly a shrewd substitute for rational analysis when it comes to markets and the global economy. Irrational exuberance I'd call it - you know, the stuff bubbles are inflated with - good for selling stocks, property and host of other wildly inflated asset classes - and of course snake oil.

7000 eh? - that's a 40% advance on present levels. Care to put a time-frame on it and provide some reasoning?

rational analysis is what im famous for....and i have the credentials to prove it... www.wolanchuk.com

 

[FetteredChinos]

nice chatline there..

is there a busty blonde on the other end?

seriously though.. i have a question..

on another thread you were predicting 17000 on the Dow. ie a 54% increase.

and now 7000 on the FTSE. a 40% ish increase.

care to explain the difference? unless you also see the Dollar going bananas into the $2.50-$3.00 level?

FC

 

[dacheif]

nice chatline there..

is there a busty blonde on the other end?

seriously though.. i have a question..

on another thread you were predicting 17000 on the Dow. ie a 54% increase.

and now 7000 on the FTSE. a 40% ish increase.

care to explain the difference? unless you also see the Dollar going bananas into the $2.50-$3.00 level?

FC

since the footsee and the nasd are lagging the dow...as the dow lagged the nas in the late 90.s its my opinion based upon elliott wave anaysis that the dow will lead on this move......eventually all world markets will be at historic highs...even the nikei....as for the footsee 7000 before the end of 2010 .....with a chance of before 2007

 

[FetteredChinos]

7000 by the end of 2010 isnt that spectacular..

long term growth rate of 10-12% leads us to approx 8000 by 2010.

even with some bear action in there, 7000 isnt that far fetched in that sort of timescale.

either way, i fancy trading the swings in between now and then..

 

[bracke]

Seymour

I think you should recruit dachief to your 'Here's another one' thread.

With thoughts like his he surely has to be an asset to such an avant garde poster such as yourself.

Regards

bracke

 

[FetteredChinos]

steady on Bracke, i might cancel your subscription to that thread

 

[bracke]

steady on Bracke, i might cancel your subscription to that thread

A fate, not quite, worse than death.

Regards

bracke

 

[peterpr]

rational analysis is what im famous for....and i have the credentials to prove it... www.wolanchuk.com

But still no reasons.

I've had a quick look at the site. Enough of that super-optimist cheerleading will no doubt garner you a profitable enough following from the ranks of the gullible. After all there have always been those who put absolute faith in even the most bizarre teachings when the teacher is charismatic and super-certain enough (David Koresh, Jim Jones and thousands like them). That's what it usually comes down to in fact - BLIND FAITH.

Others will want to know a little more about the facts, methodology and analyses underpinning your certainties. Nothing too detailed you understand, just a broad brush rationale for forecasting what everyone and his dog would really just LOVE to believe - 'Let the good times keep on rolling' and all that jazz. It's a very seductive message

 

[gullible]

fc,

r u still short?

 

[FetteredChinos]

yup.. still short..



£3k underwater, but all is not lost...

 

[gullible]

fc,
sme here, hopefully it will start going down soon?

 

[FetteredChinos]

well ive just added at 5056...

i think the retrace has begun..

broken channels on the Dow now. any further "upness" is likely to be limited, IMHO.

as long as you arent trading too much size, then you should be ok.

FC

 

[gullible]

thanks fc, i added at 5054- no more additions for me now

 

[FetteredChinos]

erm go with it, but i really wouldnt follow my trades blindly.. i dont want to see anyone coming to any harm..

Fc

 

[gullible]

no, i had added independently, for my shortcomings i am respobsible. any harm to me is my responsibility.

 

[FetteredChinos]

good to hear that mate.. we are all in control of our own desssssstiny...


good luck everyone.. its Philly-time...

 

[peterpr]

I had just one contract from 5010. Dithered a bit this pm but added another at 4560 when the run down gathered pace - so net 4535. Like FC I've been well under water for the best part of a week but fairly confident with things right now - may even add another dependant upon the US today - Not looking like the most profitable of trades but there you go.