peterpr
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gullible said:Folks,
Any views on which direction FTSE100 is going? I have started to short at these levels, but already having doubts about my action.
My vote is for a down year on the index. Host of reasons, chief among them being the threat to the US economy and world's reserve currency status posed by the US twin deficits. The US yield curve has been flattening for 6 months or more (The UK YC inverted in December) An inverted yield curve is historically about the most reliable harbinger of a recession (6-12 months warning); Stats say UK manufacturing was in recession in December etc - Governments can see it coming quite clearly and will do all in their power to avoid it - but you can't fart against thunder as the saying goes.
As for the short term (next couple of weeks) my call is for more FTSE upside after a correction to around 5000 or so.