FTSE 100 Cycles

[Insightm]

Hi Guys i have been posting to other forums and thought this might also be a good place to share ideas. However this are my analysis for the weekahead and today.

FTSE outline for the Week ahead
The FTSE closed on Friday 15/12/06 at 6255.7 and the harmonic target for this week 18/12/06 to 22/12/06 is the 6327-30 area as we had a close confirmation above the 6213-5 area on the 15/12/06. Support for the week stands at the 6221-9 and Resistance areas for the week also stands at 6327-30 and 6356-8 respectively.

Short Term
The index for today 18/12/06 has a harmonic target at 6278-82 and this is also resistances which may cause a quick reaction back down. Support areas for today are 6221.9 and right beneath that is 6213-5

As explained in my earlier posts, these are based on cycle theory and additional confirmation should be employed.

As usual all comments and views are welcome.

 

[ukhero]

Don’t yer just hate it when the market doesn’t do as you think it should! FTSE down 12pts and deliberating.

One day, and hopefully soon, I intend to walk into a Mercedes show room and point at the most expensive car and say, ‘I’ll have that one, no… make it two!

When you can act like that, you know you’ve ridden the market, turned a corner and there’s very little to stop you.

So my comment is, I would like to read more of your daily analysis, as all observations help in providing a general thesis on a markets direction. And it matters not if you get it right or wrong, the importance is that you progress.

Look forward to reading more of your FTSE comments.

UK

 

[Chocolate]

Losing the Ashes yesterday was always going to have a mildly bearish influence even though it was expected, and however good your theory is, I'm sure it didn't take this into account!

 

[dcraig1]

Losing the Ashes yesterday was always going to have a mildly bearish influence even though it was expected, and however good your theory is, I'm sure it didn't take this into account!

Ummm ... SPI futures down 0.95% too.

 

[Insightm]

The FTSE reacted back down yesterday 18/12/06 also after avoiding the its harmonic target / resistance area by 8-10 points, however its harmonic target for today 19/12/06 stands at 6280. there is a resistance at 6250-4 area this is right below where the index closed, which might cause a reaction down to support areas which stands at 6221-9 and below there is 6213-9. a break below these supports will be a sideline observation as it may mean a shift in views.

 

[Mornington Crescent]

doesnt seem to coincide with fibs

do you not take these into account at all ?

 

[Insightm]

I don't use fibonnaci because most of the times it is ambiguous, however i use natural squares to determine support and resistance and sometimes they do coincide with the fib series

 

[Insightm]

The FTSE made a correctional move beyond the support areas which could mean a shift in views, however if it can regain the resistance levels 6213-9 and 6221-9 this will probably give it another chance to attempt the harmonic target.

 

[Insightm]

The FTSE closed at 6203.4 below the important resistance levels 6213-9 and 6221-9 yesterday 19/12/06 after 2 days of selling short and sending the index to the opposite end of the harmonic target. Back to reality, today 20/12/06 the harmonic target still stands at the 6280-9 area and a fast move to the upside for the next 2-3 days starting from today will probably take place for the index to catch up with the harmonic target and time.
Resistance areas are 6245-7 and 6287-9
Support areas are 6202 and 6180 respectively

 

[Insightm]

The FTSE made it nearly to the first resistance yesterday 20/12/06 and was rejected. For today 21/12/06, a sideline observation is required for the FTSE as the harmonic target is shifting further and further away and it is getting more difficult for the index to reach, which as I thought on the 18/12/06 might be a shift in views. At present if it breaks below the 6170 area this week, it will be in a vulnerable position to go down.

 

[Insightm]

The FTSE finding it difficult to break yesterday’s support (6202) which is now a resistances spells trouble ahead.

 

[Insightm]

The FTSE seems to have change characteristics and changing course, however additional confirmation is required. For today, the resistance areas are 6188-93 and the harmonic target is now the 6160-3 area and support for the day is 6143-6 area and further down is the 6106-9

 

[Insightm]

The FTSE seems to have made a top on the 15/12/2006 at a price of 6271.4, and the analysis supporting this is that from the start of the war in Iraq 12/3/2003 at the low price of 3277.5 till the month of December which is exactly 45 months or 45 degrees, and if we use the square of 45 to determine both longitude and latitude in space and time, we arrive at 6271.4 subtracted by 3277.5 = 2993.9 which is also equal (45 x 66) + 23.9 which is half of the square of 45. Additional confirmation still required to be sure of the top, which makes 6271.4 an important area to keep an eye on.
Tomorrow the 2/1/2007 the index will probably try to find harmony which stands in the area of 6222-6 and a resistance at 6249-51area. A minor support at the 6200-2 and further down is 6180-4 area.

Notes:- Harmonic targets are natural places with the highest probability a stock or index will be in space and time on any given day, week and month

These are based on cycle theory and additional confirmation should be employed. As usual all comments and thoughts are welcome.

 

[Hook Shot]

The FTSE seems to have made a top on the 15/12/2006 at a price of 6271.4, and the analysis supporting this is that from the start of the war in Iraq 12/3/2003 at the low price of 3277.5 till the month of December which is exactly 45 months or 45 degrees, and if we use the square of 45 to determine both longitude and latitude in space and time, we arrive at 6271.4 subtracted by 3277.5 = 2993.9 which is also equal (45 x 66) + 23.9 which is half of the square of 45. Additional confirmation still required to be sure of the top, which makes 6271.4 an important area to keep an eye on.
Tomorrow the 2/1/2007 the index will probably try to find harmony which stands in the area of 6222-6 and a resistance at 6249-51area. A minor support at the 6200-2 and further down is 6180-4 area.

Notes:- Harmonic targets are natural places with the highest probability a stock or index will be in space and time on any given day, week and month

These are based on cycle theory and additional confirmation should be employed. As usual all comments and thoughts are welcome.

Perhaps I'm being a little wise after the event but last night .. :cheesy: I noticed a pennant formation on Ftse @ the highs....giving a risk of pop to new highs and possibly a move 6350-6400 zone...

However, what I'm really interested in......is whether you believe this NY madness might be temporary...... and perhaps this is just marginal new high ?

Hook Shot

 

[Insightm]

Perhaps I'm being a little wise after the event but last night .. :cheesy: I noticed a pennant formation on Ftse @ the highs....giving a risk of pop to new highs and possibly a move 6350-6400 zone...

However, what I'm really interested in......is whether you believe this NY madness might be temporary...... and perhaps this is just marginal new high ?

Hook Shot

For the FTSE to break the 6271 area will suggest more upside to come or could be just a marginal new high. which is why i said additional confirmation is required. However the Dow and S&P 500 seems to be in the same position and if the DOW can take out the 12572 area, then it might continue also the S&P 500 if it can take out the 1437 area then it will also probably attract more upside.

Insightm

 

[Insightm]

The FTSE started on a steep decline after posting new highs on the 3/1/07 which leads me to think that the reason for the sharp move up to that day could be it’s 23 anniversary as the first trade for the FTSE 100 started with a base price of 1000 on the 3/1/1984.
For today 9/1/07, Resistance area is the 6245-8 and the Harmonic Target for Friday is 6137 and below. Acceleration down will probably start from between the 10-11/1/07.

 

[Hook Shot]

Cheers Insightm.

Has anyone tried ftse options ? Took out a small position last week at 82 and already locked in almost +40pts as we speak... with more to come hopefully. seems a piece of **** really.... Why haven't I done this before ???

Only kidding............ but still almost 50% return is not bad for just a 100pt fall in underlying. What happens when all hell breaks loose.

Long Mar 6100 Puts when underyling was 6260........ still in trade!