ForexMorningTrade System

Hi,

Yes, trading seems to have been very choppy in the first two weeks of 2011, hopefully after the US holiday today we will be back to full GU liquidity/volume...

I've studied FMT performance Jan-10 to Dec-10 for GU, I found the optimum TP/SL settings for the year were TP = 30/SL = 48, yielding around 2,748 pips over the year. Note I did not include trading after Fri 17-Dec-10 (good job!), and no trailing stop, just plain TP/SL entry on order open. 2010 for me showed 193 trades, 154 wins and 39 losses, so running at 80% win rate. Using TP = 38/SL = 35 yielded 2,078 pips, but win rate fell to 63% and the equity growth was more jagged than the TP = 30/SL = 48 setting.

I know this is not a good risk ratio at 0.63, but due to high win rate it does produce a smooth growth curve, with the only month of loss in May-10 with -52 pips (due to only instance in year of 4 consecutive losses). Just my opinion of course, always test the optimum settings yourself! Let's hope 2011 trading settles down and FMT does as well as 2010! This time next year, Rodney, we'll all be millionaires...
Great Job.(y)..Nice to see that people are sharing their experiences and stats...my question...no BE stats on those stats?
 
I expect if you research the prices of your broker at opening time the indicators didnt line up for a trade

Just as well because it's been a bad day :(

I am asking because the two indicators were a clear sell at 6.30 on SLM, but the EA dont trade.
Any more person with this problem this morning?
 
I am asking because the two indicators were a clear sell at 6.30 on SLM, but the EA dont trade.
Any more person with this problem this morning?
Hello..I have the EA.. and I did get a sell signal.. I BE +5..my broker is FXDD..and it is a live account..Hope this helps.
 
Hi,

Yes, trading seems to have been very choppy in the first two weeks of 2011, hopefully after the US holiday today we will be back to full GU liquidity/volume...

I've studied FMT performance Jan-10 to Dec-10 for GU, I found the optimum TP/SL settings for the year were TP = 30/SL = 48, yielding around 2,748 pips over the year. Note I did not include trading after Fri 17-Dec-10 (good job!), and no trailing stop, just plain TP/SL entry on order open. 2010 for me showed 193 trades, 154 wins and 39 losses, so running at 80% win rate. Using TP = 38/SL = 35 yielded 2,078 pips, but win rate fell to 63% and the equity growth was more jagged than the TP = 30/SL = 48 setting.

I know this is not a good risk ratio at 0.63, but due to high win rate it does produce a smooth growth curve, with the only month of loss in May-10 with -52 pips (due to only instance in year of 4 consecutive losses). Just my opinion of course, always test the optimum settings yourself! Let's hope 2011 trading settles down and FMT does as well as 2010! This time next year, Rodney, we'll all be millionaires...

Thanks for the info! What confuses/mystifies me is that your settings yield around 1000 pips more than the standard FMT settings last year, while this should haven been known already after many backtests by FMT members during the many discussions here? :confused:
The two reasons I can find _not_ using your settings is 1) that the risk/reward ratio is low, and 2) that it's a backtest instead of forward test.
 
Hey guys,

Not sure if anyone noticed but we won "Favourite Journal of 2010" in the "T2W Members' Choice Awards 2010". So congratulations to Mark and all of the posters for making this THE BEST THREAD!!! :)
 
'Live' Accounts:

01-17-2011, FMT 4.2, Short/Break Even, FXSolutions, dealing desk, 1.5861, 1.5861, 0.0
My stats since 11-08-2010: 11 No Trades, 14 Break Evens, 15 Losses, 11 Profits, Total: -232 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP

01-17-2011, FMT 4.2, No Trade, IBFX, non-dealing desk, 0.0
My stats since 01-04-2010: 4 No Trades, 3 Break Evens, 2 Loss, 0 Profits, Total: -84.1 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP



Demo Accounts:

01-17-2011, FMT 4.2, 5: Short/Break Even & 1: No Trade at non-dealing desk brokers:
PFG Best, 1.58622, 1.58622, 0.0
FOREX.com, 1.58625, 1.58629, -0.4
MB Trading, 1.58628, 1.58627, +0.1
FXCM, 0.0
Alpari(US), 1.58632, 1.58632, 0.0
FXDD, 1.58617, 1.58617, 0.0



Modified hammy66's system:
01-17-2010, FMt 4.2 EA, set 5 separate GU M15 Charts each separated by 30 minutes using a different magic number.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: TP=30, SL=44, BE=20, BE+5 pips, UK time zone.

6:00 start, sell trade, hit SL=-44.2 pips
6:30 start, sell trade, hit BE+5 pips
7:00 start, sell trade, hit SL=-44.6 pips
7:30 start, sell trade, hit SL=-44.3 pips.
8:00 start, sell trade, hit BE+5 pips.

for today -123.1 pips ... :-(

My stats since 01-11-2010: Total: -14.6 pips


My first big hit so far on this system. Wipe out all my profits in one day! hammy66 did better than me this time.

I'm doing some back testing on this system. Hope to be done with the results soon. Very important what data you use.
I'm using M1 data from http://www.forextester.com/data/datasources.html - It's Free!
 
Nice to have a better day at this, I took my target profit and it makes it 4 wins 3 losses so far this year for me.

good luck to all others
 
out for +25. Interestingly the signals were stronger this morning. Perhaps we should be considering this before we trade?
I am also using a 40 moving average. If this signal is strong then I take the trade. If it is borderline I give it a miss. (I am using a 40 moving average as Richard Hill uses one for his net trap system). Clearly I want to ensure I am trading with the trend and not against it.
having said all this I am sure that I do not have a crystal ball! Since 4 Jan I have had 5 wins and 3 losses.
 
Nice to have a better day at this, I took my target profit and it makes it 4 wins 3 losses so far this year for me.

good luck to all others

We need to remember and not forget that today during the Asian Session we had two Major news releases out of the UK.

Which were the Consumer Confidence and the RICS House Balance. Both new releases reported very strong reading above the estimate and the prior month reading.

That caused at 25 pip spike during the Asian Session at 7:00 pm New York Time at the time of the news release, that just continued into the London open.


So I for one DO NOT give any credit to FMT for this win, since it was all based on a fundamental release, and that we all must acknowledged would have gave an entry signal on any basic indicator.
 
So I for one DO NOT give any credit to FMT for this win, since it was all based on a fundamental release, and that we all must acknowledged would have gave an entry signal on any basic indicator.

If you do not give credit to FMT for this win then you can't blame it for losses due to news releases. And if that is the case you might as well not trade FMT, since there are news releases almost every day.
:cool:
 
We need to remember and not forget that today during the Asian Session we had two Major news releases out of the UK.

Which were the Consumer Confidence and the RICS House Balance. Both new releases reported very strong reading above the estimate and the prior month reading.

That caused at 25 pip spike during the Asian Session at 7:00 pm New York Time at the time of the news release, that just continued into the London open.


So I for one DO NOT give any credit to FMT for this win, since it was all based on a fundamental release, and that we all must acknowledged would have gave an entry signal on any basic indicator.

FMT picks up on the momentum and strength of GBP prior to LON open, no matter what previous influences there may have been, ie:news. And at 06;30am it said go long and it hit TP so one should give FMT credit. If news in asian session had been opposite then FMT at 06:30 would probably have given us a sell siganl (assumming ofcourse that this news had a srong enough impact to move the market).

So to be honest I disagree that FMt should not be credited. It measured the strength and Momentum of the GU and the trade won!!!.
 
Speaking about news, I like the current 15min bar (over 80 pips) in response to GBP CPI. I haven't seen a move like that since early December. Only the banks could move it like that. Looks like things are getting back to normal. :)
 
We need to remember and not forget that today during the Asian Session we had two Major news releases out of the UK.

Which were the Consumer Confidence and the RICS House Balance. Both new releases reported very strong reading above the estimate and the prior month reading.

That caused at 25 pip spike during the Asian Session at 7:00 pm New York Time at the time of the news release, that just continued into the London open.


So I for one DO NOT give any credit to FMT for this win, since it was all based on a fundamental release, and that we all must acknowledged would have gave an entry signal on any basic indicator.

Why worry about crediting the system? Did it credit your trading account? ;)
 
We need to remember and not forget that today during the Asian Session we had two Major news releases out of the UK.

Which were the Consumer Confidence and the RICS House Balance. Both new releases reported very strong reading above the estimate and the prior month reading.

That caused at 25 pip spike during the Asian Session at 7:00 pm New York Time at the time of the news release, that just continued into the London open.


So I for one DO NOT give any credit to FMT for this win, since it was all based on a fundamental release, and that we all must acknowledged would have gave an entry signal on any basic indicator.

I believe news is "baked into the cake" The market being the cake if you will. If FMT says "conditions" are correct I am in. All the FMT is doing is giving us a bias to take a trade it is not winning or losing for us in my opinion.
 
If you do not give credit to FMT for this win then you can't blame it for losses due to news releases. And if that is the case you might as well not trade FMT, since there are news releases almost every day.
:cool:

Yes and I hate to agree with you, I do not give credit for wins and do not any blames it for losses.

Anyone who believes that indicators do not lag and are just a reflection of some fundamental news has a long way to go in this business.

Which will still bring us right back to the same issue, any and I do mean any basic indicator will show the same results after a news release much like today, and yet how many people here on this thread have argued that point in the past?

But yet if news releases were not the bases for major moves, then why do so many avoid NFP?

If that is still to hard for anyone understand or accept what happen during Dec of this past year? FMT issued an entry signal. Only for that entry to turn into a loss due to a news release, yet no one even mentioned it.

I for one really do not care, but those who think they can get by without knowing the “true” cause for a movement come back in one year and let me know how it works out, and I am not talking about 300 pips or more of a stop loss just to again 10- 40 pips like I have seem so many time.
 
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