ForexMorningTrade System

[markfric]

Mark, I see in the charts you are using in the pdf that in some trades you column is one hour after mine. Since I am italian and living in Italy, I am GMT+1 and my broker uses the my zone time, so I am wondering the reasong why there is this difference.

I attached the last two days chart I have (I have changed the time in 6.30-8.30 in order to be GMT+1), could you please tell me if it's fine?

Is there any difference in setting the time during the time saving since both UK and Italy have it during the same month?
Another question: what's the 2 hours column for? For this system isn't enough a line on 5.30 GMT?

Thank you and forgive me if my questions seem to be stupid.

Best
Fabius

Hello Fabius, from the chart I see that you are one hour before me. You should set the time to 7:30 - 9:30.

2 hours range doesn't have any function, other than looking good. I think it is better than just drawing a line.

Mark

 

[Fabius]

Hello Fabius, from the chart I see that you are one hour before me. You should set the time to 7:30 - 9:30.

2 hours range doesn't have any function, other than looking good. I think it is better than just drawing a line.

Mark

Hi Mark, thank you for the answer.
But since I am using a GMT+1 broker, shouldn't I use 6.30 and 8.30? In your pdf you wrote that it must be used 5.30-7.30 GMT, so I guess the time I set is correct. Maybe should I start on 7.30 in these months because of the time saving time and then go back to 6.30 in winter time?
Anyway I have just made a back test starting from the first of June, so 3 month so far and well... the difference between starting 6.30 as I thought and 7.30 as you are saying, is simply overwhelming:

my 6.30
no trading days: 22
losing trades: 7
winning trades: 34

your 7.30
no trading days: 14
losing trades: 4
winning trades: 45

Now, the main question is: should I keep the 7.30 set up even during winter time?

By the way, the 2 hours range blu column is really nicer than a simple line and helps me a lot for my breakout strategy on New York.
I set up the range between 01-03 pm GMT+1 (07-09 am est), I draw a line on the high and another one on the low of the range inside the column and as soon as the price pass through the one of the lines by 5 pip, I enter in the trade (TP from 10 to n pips -you have to follow it- and SL 15-20 pips).
Your indicator make my drawing the lines an easier task since I do not have to count the time and draw the vertical lines (I am lazy, I know...)
In August 19 wins and 5 losses with N.Y. breakout, but with your system before London opening it would have been 15 wins (most of them more profitable the those in N.Y.) and just 1 loss

Thanks again for your support and for this great system :cheers:

 

[Kinger]

Fabius, I'm having the same issue, I was looking at 5:30am GMT.
My Alpari account is 1 hour ahead so I was using 6:30am on my chart. Which is different to the examples in the pdf which seem to use 7:30am ???

Anyway since 01 April I get:

6:30am
Wins 49
Loses 24
No Trades 32

7:30am
Wins 48
Loses 23
No Trades 32

I need to test for 3 years worth of data before I’ll put any money on it though.

 

[Fabius]

Fabius, I'm having the same issue, I was looking at 5:30am GMT.
My Alpari account is 1 hour ahead so I was using 6:30am on my chart. Which is different to the examples in the pdf which seem to use 7:30am ???

Anyway since 01 April I get:

6:30am
Wins 49
Loses 24
No Trades 32

7:30am
Wins 48
Loses 23
No Trades 32

I need to test for 3 years worth of data before I’ll put any money on it though.

Just 49 wins since April 1st taht means in 5 months?
Aren't they a little few? Back testing this strategy, unless indicators change their data after a while, I see (using 7.30 set up) 15 winning trades in August, 14 in July and 16 in June. That means just 3-4 trades less than you who count 2 months more.
I am not saying that I am right and you are wrong, not at all: I am wondering if you are too strict in taking the signals or it's me being too loose in taking them...
I would like to know your progress with this system and I'll do the same.
May the trend be with you all, Pipswalkers!

P.S.
By the way, I am very glad that to me, 7.30 of my time seems to work better than 6.30, so I do not have to get up too early...

 

[mitchp]

Mark,

I did a little back-test (little because I only have historical to July 5, 2010) trying SL/TP combinations and 30/30 performed better than 40/40. Now I know my sample is very low and I shouldn't make any rash judgements but it did give me 3 additional wins and 3 less loses. What I'm really interest in is in your backtesting what kind of percentage of trades to trading days are you getting. Also would it be possible to provide an EA that allows us to minipulate the CCI. I want to back-test using various setting to see if there is a broker bias.

Mitch

 

[4xpipcounter]

You go Dave!!! I was getting ready to jump in to defend the Elliot Wave, and the very next post was yours. Another thing is that in order to get you 300% gains in the last 3 months, you margining has been conservative too. Your hard work has paid off.

I have worked hard for 3 years on Elliott Wave and Fibonacci because Elliott wave is based on Fibonacci. Although it is hard work: I have quadrupled my account in the last 3 months and quadrupled my account in the previous 3 months before that. So don't think that you can't be very successful if you will only work hard and trade your own system...............I get very tired of people telling me that I can't make it on my own when I am getting better results than they are getting and they are offering a paid system. Do the work for yourselves people and you can beat the results these people are charging you a lot of money for. Do the math. 90% of traders lose money........That means you have to be in the top ten percent to make money. I would venture to say that the top 10% THAT MAKE MONEY WORK THE HARDEST. I know that I work very hard and make money, but I only trade my own signals. And I don't sell anything.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Mark, I'm pretty quick to defend anything that produces great results that consists of hard work, and that is why I was quick to defend the Elliot Wave in your thread.
You actually seem to have quite a following here. In a world in which we witness a 90% failure rate, you seem to have the answer for quite a few. Personally, I cannot see trading a system that only yields 100 pips per month, but that is just me. It seems you're winning and that's what counts. Keep up the good work!

 

[Adamup]

Hi Mark & Fellow Traders,
I think this is a sound system, providing we use good Money Management and optimization as the Market goes through changes in the future.

Here's another possibility idea for Money Management:
Stop Loss =30 pips
Trailing Stop =30 pips
Close 80% of trade @ +30 pips and remaining 20% @ + 40 pips or Trailing Stop Price

Example:We put on .5 Mini Lot Trade. At 30 pips profit our stop loss moves to break even and we close out 80% or .4 Mini Lots = $4.00 X 30 pips= $120.00
Price moves 5 more pips in our favor, so trailing stop moves to +5 pips from entry.
Price then reverses and hits our trailing stop at +5 pips and closes remaining 20% of our trade which is .1 Mini Lot = $1.00 X 5pips= $5.00 Net Profit = $125.00

Just another possible idea to preserve our capital.....

 

[suresh3101]

seems like no trade today.. cci is above zero level and momentum is below 100 level.. Lets see tommorrow..

 

[GilR]

I would not like to be those who took the signal an hour earlier for a long trade.

Notice that both indicators show a bearish divergenge. A betting man would go short.

Gil

 

[Adamup]

Quiet range right now....too much important news in the next 6 hrs for Gbp & Usd

 

[markfric]

spreadsfm,

How about including ATR in the equation. What are your thoughts.....

I tested it with ATR based PT and SL, but fixed PT/SL had better results.

 

[markfric]

1st September - NO TRADE for me

 

[markfric]

Mark, I'm pretty quick to defend anything that produces great results that consists of hard work, and that is why I was quick to defend the Elliot Wave in your thread.
You actually seem to have quite a following here. In a world in which we witness a 90% failure rate, you seem to have the answer for quite a few. Personally, I cannot see trading a system that only yields 100 pips per month, but that is just me. It seems you're winning and that's what counts. Keep up the good work!

I think every trader will finally find the trading style that suits him best. I tried many systems and techniques, and I find trading my way the most comfortable for me.

100 pips a month is very good result if it takes you only 5 minutes a day or virtually no time with EA.

I believe my system can be one of the pillars of the traders portfolio. I trade also other systems (not ready to go public, sorry) and I recommend everybody who is serious about trading to spend his time on education, testing and trading, and eventually you'll develop your own trading style and systems.

 

[bluedancer]

I think every trader will finally find the trading style that suits him best. I tried many systems and techniques, and I find trading my way the most comfortable for me.

100 pips a month is very good result if it takes you only 5 minutes a day or virtually no time with EA.

I believe my system can be one of the pillars of the traders portfolio. I trade also other systems (not ready to go public, sorry) and I recommend everybody who is serious about trading to spend his time on education, testing and trading, and eventually you'll develop your own trading style and systems.

Money management can work miracles, if you trade by % and not the same size lots, your profits will grow. So for me using a trailing stop will allow me fewer losses, so I can trade more lots, as I figure maximum drawdown is a better way to figure risk than loss for any one trade. My rule is a system should have maximum drawdown of no more than 3 losing trades in a row. If there are runs of 3-4 winners in a row, then the system may be able to allow trading a higher risk factor and therefore much higher profits. Once you have the system and understand what it can do, then you can calculate it's maximum performance. For this idea to work the system must be very repeatable, and consistent.

The reason I love Mark's system is that I have seen quite a few GBP/usd pre- London open systems and usually the profit is 20-30 pips. Each time this pair pushes it gets at least 20 pips so with the indicators confirming, 40 pips is so logical.

Thanks Mark!

 

[Kinger]

As far I see this is just a no brainer system that will win over the long run. There might be months of small losses but you should really look at a 6-12mth run and not monthly.

With regards 30 or 40 pip sl, I think its swings and roundabouts.. ie, over the long run they’ll be pretty much the same. The difference of 10 pips is just not enough to worry about as the overall sl is risk percentage.
Also, scaling out profits may not be a good idea with this system either, as we’re talking small amount of pips here in a quick time its more like a binary system. So we either win today or lose (unless no trade). Less worry, no thinking about divergence etc.

This system will work IF you leave it alone to do its work …. !!!!!! :clap:
AND use the ea, it take the thinking away .. get up a spreadsheet and calculate your risk the night before and leave your machine on.
If your like me I do everything on a laptop with windows 7, what you can do is put it into hibernate mode and get it to wake just before 7:30, the ea will run the trade … then hibernate again ! couldn’t be better. :smart:

I too agree with Mark in that it should be apart of your trading arsenal. I trade other systems, one very similar to this and a longer term system.

I’m going to take a read of the Elliot Wave thread that’s on here. I know a lot of people think its crap but what they don’t realize is it works because people are using it, and as long as they use it, it’ll continue to work. Trading very boring and I need to get some more input!

 

[Kinger]

Good for you! But...

This is a nice solid system. Hard stops and take profits, fixed 2% risk/reward and drawdown, money management (compounding), and solid long term returns.

Discretion comes with experience, and your trading "personality", but I really like methods where I can place a trade and walk away... win or lose.

I do not agree that the only way to become one of the 10% of traders who turn a profit must "work hard" and develop their own system... YES, you must work hard and gain a solid education, BUT his logic is skewed, because in this case, you are indeed paying $ to Mark for his "method", but, it is he who has already done the "hard work", and you are benefitting from his knowledge, experience and testing.

I am very happy that I have a passive method here that allows me to use the EA and concentrate on my longer time frame methods which do not require me to get up at 1:15 EST (summer) to prepare to trade the London session (which I have done for years).

I genererally do not us Ea's, but in this case, the rules are based on the exact same entry/t/sl rules as the manual method which has proven to be profitable over the long term.

The only change I would suggest (for convenience) would be to have an option for the EA to automatically enter lot size based on equity (2% etc.), as currently this needs to be adjusted manually after every trade as your account goes up/down, which is no big deal at all (and of course, is dependent on your account balance and type mini/micro etc.)

So, "work hard", learn all you can, by all means develop your own methods based on your ever increasing knowledge, but at the same time, do not feel guilty for benefitting from Mark's hard work, if indeed, you are benefitting from 3+ years or research and analysis of "ELLIOT WAVE" THEORY, than you are actually benefitting from ELLIOT'S hard work... and you have just "tweaked" it... we all use various chart patterns, indicators etc. that were most likely developed by someone else, this doen not mean we are lazy, or destined to become one of the "90%"...

chi

My 2 pence worth:

I’ve been trading for 6 years the first 2 were pointless as (I’m afraid to say this) I spent too much time listening to people on here and other forums who didn’t know what they were doing. After 2 years I spent time trying to learn by myself, I came up with 2 systems both are very boring and take me just a few times a day to check on them. The forex market is not a game you need a phd for, a lot of successful traders have no qualifications at all, but what they can do is follow the rules with no intervention.

Some people find it hard to believe that a simple system can make money, it has to be complicated to make money, money is allusive etc and you have to work hard to find it. But the fact of the matter is, its there on a plate ready for you to take IF you can see the wood for the trees. By this I mean step back, and just eye ball what’s going on in a chart.

This system requires no intervention, it’s simple and boring....so go make some money.

 

[Prof8t]

The system seems solid. I was looking over the settings. Could this system also be used for the NY open as well?

 

[aagarcia]

I would not like to be those who took the signal an hour earlier for a long trade.

Notice that both indicators show a bearish divergenge. A betting man would go short.

Gil

There would have been NO TRADE according to the indicators so I don't understand your statement.

 

[Fabius]

My 2 pence worth:

...

Some people find it hard to believe that a simple system can make money, it has to be complicated to make money, money is allusive etc and you have to work hard to find it. But the fact of the matter is, its there on a plate ready for you to take IF you can see the wood for the trees. By this I mean step back, and just eye ball what’s going on in a chart.

This system requires no intervention, it’s simple and boring....so go make some money.

I couldn't have said it any better :clap:
Why do people wanna always struggle to get anything? If something arrive without or with little pain, or effort, or anything, I think it would be wise accepting it and being grateful.
This is how I wanna do, I am just tired to fight for anything: too stressful.
I simply want to enjoy my life and try to give my help in making this world a little better.
If this system, together with the others I am starting to use with some success, can make me fullfill my desires, it's most welcome.
I see that even though it makes me get 10 profitable trades on average every month (counting also the losing trades), and it can do it, with 1 lot I'll be able to earn 3.200 € everymonth just with this system.
Here in Italy the average salary is from 1.200 to 1.500€. That means I'll be able to earn the double of any medium worker who works from 9 am to 18 pm every day, with just few minutes of work everyday.
It is boring? I don't care and I don't mind: it is better than working under a boss and fearing to be fired anytime something goes wrong.

By the way, I find exciting earning so many pips almost on daily basis