For the wise, the ignorant, the brave or the bold...

trader_dante

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I just wanted to post this because its a highly significant level.

A lot of talk that the SNB will come in and support this so it's one for the brave or bold (alternatively the wise or ignorant depending on your view point) but this is one hell of a level to attempt a short at.

Chart 1: strong support breaks and price makes its first retracement to it
Chart 2: a closer view with 50% confluence from the last swing high.

Enjoy ;)
 

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While we are on some potential setups, I also love the S&P for a long. Significant resistance. Price doesn't seem to want to stray too far from it. Usually means one thing in my opinion.

The brave/bold could try a breakout or even pre-empt one.

The conservative will probably want to wait for the restest before buying into a zone like this.

Everyone else will probably just keep playing Modern Warfare 2 on their Xbox's and come back in January ;)

50% retracement from all time high to last major lows is around 1126. Could be a logical target for a last surge up before Christmas.
 

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Oh go on... one more as it's Christmas :)

If we fall hard into this level I would say we are almost guaranteed a bounce. How far is anyones guess but I think around $20 (200 ticks) is a nice estimate.

This one totally depends on how it trades into it.

For now, I will leave a limit at 1070 for half, average the other half at 1067 and probably put a stop around 1064 for the lot.
 

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P.S. I hope you all have a very merry Christmas and wish you all a prosperous New Year.

Tom
 
I just wanted to post this because its a highly significant level.

A lot of talk that the SNB will come in and support this so it's one for the brave or bold (alternatively the wise or ignorant depending on your view point) but this is one hell of a level to attempt a short at.

Chart 1: strong support breaks and price makes its first retracement to it
Chart 2: a closer view with 50% confluence from the last swing high.

Enjoy ;)

I wish all a merry christmas .

The Euro is the only alternative to the U S dollar.The recent euro weakness was due to the dollar strength.The Euro has been oversold against all currencies and is now regaining strength.

The euro chf chart like the euro gbp/eur/aud/eur/nok chart reflects the recent euro weakness.

O D T
 
The euro chf chart like the euro gbp/eur/aud/eur/nok chart reflects the recent euro weakness.

O D T

I'm not sure, dude athough always value others comments.

To me, if anything, the EUR/GBP looks like a buy and the EUR/CHF looks like a sell...
 
I'm not sure, dude athough always value others comments.

To me, if anything, the EUR/GBP looks like a buy and the EUR/CHF looks like a sell...

O K I buy at 1.4978 and you sell at 1.4978 ,stop 45 pips.Pound per point T/P 20 PIPS

Best regards

O D T
 
LOL mate, I'm not trading anything with a risk of 45 and a reward of 20!

Oops !Thats meant to be a part of a winning formula.

Don't wait for the whole trend, only go for the most certain trend profit.

Thats part of a absolute return-mechanical money management system

O D T
 
For the wise, the ignorant, the brave or the bold...?

Makes me think of the parable of the 5 wise and the 5 foolish virgins....

....but where do you find 5 wise, or even 5 foolish virgins at this time of year....
....or indeed any time of year....?


:LOL:
 
T D

Down 45 pips.Good call.

A good example of using the 50 % retracement.I will start using the 50% retracements

O D T
 
T D

Down 45 pips.Good call.

A good example of using the 50 % retracement.I will start using the 50% retracements

O D T

Thanks dude, for me at least it had all the hallmarks of a good trade. Market breaks the support, retests it and has confluence there to help the shorts.

There was an hourly pin too :) Market almost took out the stops and then we had a bearish engulfing candle. So the price action confirmation was there for those that use it.

Montmorency: I'll let you know when I find the answer to your question!
 
A quick update on the calls for today then:

RE: EUR/CHF

Part of good trade management is knowing when the "gamble point" occurs.

I define the "gamble point" as the point where you have good profit and the trade comes into a big problem area. It's the area where you find yourself thinking "oh man, if it can get through here I could be in for a really big profit on this trade..."

It's at that point where I've too often given back vast profits "gambling" for the home run.

It's great to hit a home run but it depends what stage of your account you are in and your purposes for trading.

If you are in the account growth stage or are looking to make a living taking regular profits, I personally think it is a good idea to get some profits off the table when price comes into key levels. There are a lot of lows around 1.4930 and this is where I would be looking to get out of at least 50% of this trade.

If you are not that active as a trader and are not relying on this as an income but rather as a nest egg (or just to see if you can make a fortune) then you can go for that home run and trail your stops...

Just a few opinions :)

RE: The S&P.

Some chop today. Not uncharacteristic ;)

If you trade using candlestick setups as your triggers then you often have logical places for your stops.

However, if you just hit market as I often do now then you want to be a little more discerning. Sometimes you can use a time based stop effectively. Any long trade taken when it was called earlier has been running for several hours, it's gone three handles onside, it's gone two handles offside. Right now it's right around where it was when I called it.

Right now I'd be running a tight stop around 1109. You may get knocked out in the lunch time shenanigans but it's good game tactics if it's not quite working out as you intended when you planned the trade or even if you are slightly unsure to get out with a small loss.

Never be afraid to get out and then get back in again. As long as there is a good setup to take it shouldn't matter whether its now higher and you were originally in from lower. Some people find this remarkably hard to do.

You're a buyer at 1111, you get stopped out at 1109 and then you see it go to 1115 and you can't find it within you to buy it 4 handles higher than you originally had it. I've been there a good few times.

Having said that, never confuse getting back in after a good setup with chasing the price because you are irritated at having been stopped out and then seen it go your way.

RE: Gold

Traded as low as 1074 before bouncing to 1081 where it is right now. You can expect to see buying come in down here. 1070 is a big ol' level. I'll leave limits in as posted earlier.
 
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can't understand the last few hours candles in crude...sells off through the pivot...then reversal from nowhere !?!
 
white house chatting **** about iran.. and its right off the 61.8% fib from swing low to swing high..plenty of buyers to be had, will be there blood that takes us lower
 
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