Following the money: catching the trends before they realize

[Mr. Crabs]

New session highs on EURAUD

I think we've got potential for new session highs within the hour.

I think that it should hit the top soon though.

I think it could hang up here for a while although I don't think it will go up much higher than it is now. Maybe .005% upside but I imagine it won't go much higher than it is now considering mod-term shorts are likely increasing their positions while we are closing in on a multi-year high resistance. The AUD already got beaten down under support while the EUR is waiting to get rocked by a USD strengthened by the notion of tapering.

Basically I think we're closing in at the top; maybe for the quarter.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

EURAUD new highs on ridiculous price moves

I think it could hang up here for a while although I don't think it will go up much higher than it is now. Maybe .005% upside but I imagine it won't go much higher than it is now considering mod-term shorts are likely increasing their positions while we are closing in on a multi-year high resistance. The AUD already got beaten down under support while the EUR is waiting to get rocked by a USD strengthened by the notion of tapering.

Basically I think we're closing in at the top; maybe for the quarter.

Blatant manipulation. Moved the price sharply up most likely this will affect sentiment by bringing out bulls confidence on the EUR which should and was probably planning to get sold on. Waiting for the switch, that may have been it. I thought the USD was in a good spot with the numbers that are in and tapering news yet crazy EUR intra-day moves up are still happening.

Amazing big money lets anyone get away with this crazy stuff. Sure it was just an hour move but still, how ridiculous.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Update on EUR and AUD

Blatant manipulation. Moved the price sharply up most likely this will affect sentiment by bringing out bulls confidence on the EUR which should and was probably planning to get sold on. Waiting for the switch, that may have been it. I thought the USD was in a good spot with the numbers that are in and tapering news yet crazy EUR intra-day moves up are still happening.

Amazing big money lets anyone get away with this crazy stuff. Sure it was just an hour move but still, how ridiculous.

EUR charts look set to spring against AUD which is facing resistance against the USD, if that's broken I would still bet more gains within the hour on the EURUSD's side so I'm thinking that there is a good chance the EURAUD rallies but I won't expect 1.56 early this week.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Some erratic trading to start off the session

USD moved up, EUR and AUD both made a gap down. Trading has been particularly erratic on the EURAUD. It looks like it's about to be cornered.

I've learned the game guys. When a pair is bulling it can trade sideways or up, but rarely down, attempts to rally to the downside have been seemingly futile. Usually sheds weight when its' over-bought, rarely otherwise. I think it's likely EURAUD moves up via a prompt corner, might clear well past highs up to 1.56 and beyond. Holding up some strong trend-lines. We'll see what happens, I'm thinking corner.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Short lived corner to tighten trading on EURAUD

USD moved up, EUR and AUD both made a gap down. Trading has been particularly erratic on the EURAUD. It looks like it's about to be cornered.

I've learned the game guys. When a pair is bulling it can trade sideways or up, but rarely down, attempts to rally to the downside have been seemingly futile. Usually sheds weight when its' over-bought, rarely otherwise. I think it's likely EURAUD moves up via a prompt corner, might clear well past highs up to 1.56 and beyond. Holding up some strong trend-lines. We'll see what happens, I'm thinking corner.

I'd tell everyone to bank on AUD weakness and EUR strength but it's a crap-shoot atm, AUDUSD in an extremely tight range these past few minutes and retracted further than the EURUSD. Though I think the EUR will be quicker to move up than the AUD, EURAUD has been making for easy trading on the upside. High accuracy on the upside if you make quick trades after the pair retraces its' step a spread or 2.

This is a tricky pair for me, the AUD could have a hard breakout any time now and the EUR could pull a fast one on the downside at any time as well. But as for quick intra-day trades it's been holding solid. Easy to move up, hard to move down more than a handful of pips. I think 1.56 is upcoming, I doubt we see 1.57 in the near future.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

AUD bounced

I'd tell everyone to bank on AUD weakness and EUR strength but it's a crap-shoot atm, AUDUSD in an extremely tight range these past few minutes and retracted further than the EURUSD. Though I think the EUR will be quicker to move up than the AUD, EURAUD has been making for easy trading on the upside. High accuracy on the upside if you make quick trades after the pair retraces its' step a spread or 2.

This is a tricky pair for me, the AUD could have a hard breakout any time now and the EUR could pull a fast one on the downside at any time as well. But as for quick intra-day trades it's been holding solid. Easy to move up, hard to move down more than a handful of pips. I think 1.56 is upcoming, I doubt we see 1.57 in the near future.

So all that tight trading turned out to be a bullish signal. Resting right above intra-day highs, I figure a pullback is to be expected since traders usually bank on AUD weakness and would likely continue to do so after a somewhat random sharp move to the upside. AUD already looks topped for this most recent move up. And then the AUD moved up further.

Meanwhile the EUR is nearly unchanged.

Preference for the AUD over the EUR now that the Federal Reserve is beginning to taper? I'd bank on that mod-term. Short-term I'd presume the bid wants to go up to dump off all those unwanted sells that had to be bought in turn. Are there more shorts to shake? More companies who can be alarmed by a further move up between the pairs in concern to their profit margins? I don't know how much farther this trend can be taken. Early birds got squeezed out several times and those who had to make a move in fear of losses would have for the most part already done so; especially when the pair broke out above 1.55 most recently, therefore sellers could win out very soon. Strong hands would last, more hands would pile on as time moves forward. But a bid moving up could increase the demand dramatically for the EURAUD, traders could see more upside as more favorable than immediate downside.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

AUD flaunted some weakness

So all that tight trading turned out to be a bullish signal. Resting right above intra-day highs, I figure a pullback is to be expected since traders usually bank on AUD weakness and would likely continue to do so after a somewhat random sharp move to the upside. AUD already looks topped for this most recent move up. And then the AUD moved up further.

Meanwhile the EUR is nearly unchanged.

Preference for the AUD over the EUR now that the Federal Reserve is beginning to taper? I'd bank on that mod-term. Short-term I'd presume the bid wants to go up to dump off all those unwanted sells that had to be bought in turn. Are there more shorts to shake? More companies who can be alarmed by a further move up between the pairs in concern to their profit margins? I don't know how much farther this trend can be taken. Early birds got squeezed out several times and those who had to make a move in fear of losses would have for the most part already done so; especially when the pair broke out above 1.55 most recently, therefore sellers could win out very soon. Strong hands would last, more hands would pile on as time moves forward. But a bid moving up could increase the demand dramatically for the EURAUD, traders could see more upside as more favorable than immediate downside.

Intra-day EURAUD chart looks good to bounce intra-day. I like how the EUR is trending against the USD but then again the USD might be a better pair to the AUD to capitalize on its' late weakness.

AUD chart looks strong to those looking at the 1M since it made its' gap down at the opening, On the other hand this can be taken advantage of, those positions will be most easily swayed by AUD weakness. Looking further out for the mod-term the AUD demand will continue because it's obviously in a range to buy and cover for a new substantial trend.

Anyway, EURAUD chart made a switch these past 10 minutes or so, looks ready to bid up for a while. I don't see why that gap wouldn't be appreciated in the near term.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Buy low sell high that's the traders motto

Intra-day EURAUD chart looks good to bounce intra-day. I like how the EUR is trending against the USD but then again the USD might be a better pair to the AUD to capitalize on its' late weakness.

AUD chart looks strong to those looking at the 1M since it made its' gap down at the opening, On the other hand this can be taken advantage of, those positions will be most easily swayed by AUD weakness. Looking further out for the mod-term the AUD demand will continue because it's obviously in a range to buy and cover for a new substantial trend.

Anyway, EURAUD chart made a switch these past 10 minutes or so, looks ready to bid up for a while. I don't see why that gap wouldn't be appreciated in the near term.

Against the USD I would now consider the EUR "low" and the AUD "high". Chart on the EURAUD looks like it's ready to bottom out, smooth move to the downside since opening. I'm becoming more confident in the notion of a EURAUD bounce later today, beginning soon. All this looking at the 1-15M charts, looking forward hours.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

EURAUD looking like it wants to break out

Against the USD I would now consider the EUR "low" and the AUD "high". Chart on the EURAUD looks like it's ready to bottom out, smooth move to the downside since opening. I'm becoming more confident in the notion of a EURAUD bounce later today, beginning soon. All this looking at the 1-15M charts, looking forward hours.

Easy money scooping up retractions since the switch. Appears we've passed the bottom. Churning buys until we break the corner which is just a few pips up. I like how the pair has been operating since it opened.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

EURAUD dropped off sharply

Easy money scooping up retractions since the switch. Appears we've passed the bottom. Churning buys until we break the corner which is just a few pips up. I like how the pair has been operating since it opened.

AUD at fault for moving up sharply. I'm buying the EUR. Price action has been convenient for me and I presume many other heavy liquidity providers. I figure it's more likely to keep up. AUD pulls back when it gets out of its' range. Already has and EURAUD is already pipping up. Judging by the charts smart money has transitioned from a bias towards the ask towards one on the bid.

And there's a few pips already. I'd consider it another buy signal for a more substantial trend. I'll keep churning buys when the ask becomes the bid for a while, mainly because I like the trend and the recent action.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

AUD shocked me on a breakout

AUD at fault for moving up sharply. I'm buying the EUR. Price action has been convenient for me and I presume many other heavy liquidity providers. I figure it's more likely to keep up. AUD pulls back when it gets out of its' range. Already has and EURAUD is already pipping up. Judging by the charts smart money has transitioned from a bias towards the ask towards one on the bid.

And there's a few pips already. I'd consider it another buy signal for a more substantial trend. I'll keep churning buys when the ask becomes the bid for a while, mainly because I like the trend and the recent action.

Clean breakout AUDUSD. But it's out of my range, moved too far these past few minutes. Will stick to supplying liquidity to those mad traders who will buy like crazy because of a large green line. AUD was loading, due to take profits and get back into a better loading range. There's still that chance for weakness, profit takers may like the current price so they will bid while they take profits.

Anyway, intra-day banking on that corner having been over-extended. EUR unchanged through the move against the USD. Interesting trading going on.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

EURAUD moving up

Clean breakout AUDUSD. But it's out of my range, moved too far these past few minutes. Will stick to supplying liquidity to those mad traders who will buy like crazy because of a large green line. AUD was loading, due to take profits and get back into a better loading range. There's still that chance for weakness, profit takers may like the current price so they will bid while they take profits.

Anyway, intra-day banking on that corner having been over-extended. EUR unchanged through the move against the USD. Interesting trading going on.

Bounce started off with very strong trending compression. Went up a number of pips immediately after the trend-line was briefly broken. EURUSD just entered its' most recent loading boat, I think it has potential to rebound and break out even further, I would like to see that potential recognized today. The AUD which appears to be "struggling" to maintain support on the 4h chart I think should stay down tighter and have its' upside suppressed against the USD, support held and strengthened by loading mod-term buyers of the AUD which has been oversold this year. Although I have (or originally had) been aiming to maintain a net-short position I would be tickled if the EURAUD held above 1.56 for a bit of time (minutes-days) to freshen up the pair before before splashing back into the 1.53-4 range. AS I said before I don't expect the pair should move up to 1.57, I intend to extend my short line to the maximum if the price gets too close to 1.57.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

What a drop off EURAUD

Bounce started off with very strong trending compression. Went up a number of pips immediately after the trend-line was briefly broken. EURUSD just entered its' most recent loading boat, I think it has potential to rebound and break out even further, I would like to see that potential recognized today. The AUD which appears to be "struggling" to maintain support on the 4h chart I think should stay down tighter and have its' upside suppressed against the USD, support held and strengthened by loading mod-term buyers of the AUD which has been oversold this year. Although I have (or originally had) been aiming to maintain a net-short position I would be tickled if the EURAUD held above 1.56 for a bit of time (minutes-days) to freshen up the pair before before splashing back into the 1.53-4 range. AS I said before I don't expect the pair should move up to 1.57, I intend to extend my short line to the maximum if the price gets too close to 1.57.

I wonder where all these profits end up.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

EURAUD and the rebound

I wonder where all these profits end up.

Moving up controlled and strong. Most natural course would probably be a strong bid and a good amount of time churning its' way up until the bidding reaches out to new highs. 2 weeks with solid bidding should do the trick, hold at 1.56-1.57 until it gets too heavy. It has to reverse eventually, an obvious reversal seems likely within these next 2 months. The break down we saw recently was a decent signal but it cut too deep too quickly to do much besides strengthen the price I think.

 

[rsh01]

It has to reverse eventually

If written with no sense of irony then omg.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

EURAUD sent strong sell signals

If written with no sense of irony then omg.

At a support, anticipate a rebound if this breaks down further then the trading could get manic. Anyway it looks like it's already manic. The intra-day and short-term market movers are a bunch of maniacs these days.

I look forward to straightening it all out.

It's about over, I don't see much reason to keep updating here. I'm moving on. I've learned what I wanted to know and have developed my mind. Thanks to everyone that was kind and helpful to me, to the others that took a more antagonistic tone - **** off. The pointless dribble was a waste of time, shame.