Best Thread Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Coffee
COT Change (52W) / C-23%, LS-20% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-98%, LS-5%, SS-36% /
I think one of the nicest markets these days is Coffee. We’ve got a significantly large extreme and this week an also big change in traders’ positions. Both of these signals are bullish signals.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD)
COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme /
We’ve got a very nice, All Time cot extreme signal in NZD and if we look at the historical charts, we can see that these extremes were always very accurate signals. (we have a bearish one now)

Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD)
COT Extreme / C-327 report, LS-323 report COT extreme /
It’s always nice to see opposite signals in currencies, cause it can give us the opportunity to trade the pair. We’ve got a very large cot extreme in Canadian dollar that suggests, prices will stop their decline, and we’ll see higher prices soon.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Coffee
COT Change (52W) / C-43%, LS-35% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-86%, LS-5%, SS-16% /
Seem that it’s not the end of the decline yet. Anyhow, the wider picture seems very optimistic, so it may be a good trade in the end.

Soybean Oil
COT Extreme / C & LS & SS-All Time COT extreme /
All major trader groups are at their all-time extremes. Prices have not reacted yet, so anyone just tuning in can still find a good Risk/Reward trade.

Heating Oil
COT Extreme / C-All Time, LS-436 report COT extreme /
COT extremes in Heating Oil seem to be effective signals, so having such a buy signal is pretty valuable.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Rough Rice
COT Change (52W) / C-30%, LS-47% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-96%, LS-3%, SS-14% /
Not only do we have a large change in cot positions, but we are at extreme levels also. Both of these are bullish signals, which is very confirming in case you are considering to go long.

S&P-500
COT Extreme / C-323 report, LS-All Time COT extreme /
We have reached an all-time extreme level in S&P – at least in Large Speculators – so the big question can be asked: are we at/close to the top? It may easily be the case, but I would warn you that indexes strongly correlate --> have a look at the rest of them, whether the cot extreme exists there also, before you jump in the trade. The extreme in S&P can easily widen for many weeks or even a couple of months, before we see a top. Anyhow, even if we can’t pinpoint the exact top, we can start to position ourselves accordingly: you can scale out of your long positions or bring closer your stops or of carefully build up a short position.

Gold
COT Extreme / C & LS-229 report, SS-637 report COT extreme /
Small Speculators… They’re the ones, who make the picture very interesting now --> The last time, they were net short, was back in 2001 / roughly 12 years ago!! The fact that they are soooo pessimistic, suggests to me, that we can expect prices to rise further.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Coffee
COT Change (52W) / C-44%, LS-40% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-78%, LS-25%, SS-38% /
Looks as if Coffee is starting to react to the cot extreme that exists in this market. The question here is which signal to listen to: this extreme or the latest change. Well, the answer isn’t that difficult, since usually changes have a short term effect and extremes a longer, we may see prices “hesitate” for some while or even a small decline, but if the extreme takes effect, we should be seeing much higher prices soon!

Rough Rice
COT Extreme / LS-All Time COT extreme /
The picture in Rough rice is bullish, we can expect prices to continue their rally.

Cocoa
COT Extreme / C-270 report, LS-271 report COT extreme /
Looking at the chart, I don’t think any written words could tell you more about Cocoa, the picture is pretty clear at the moment -> we can expect prices to decline.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Coffee
COT Change (52W) / C-41%, LS-36%, SS-25% /
COT Long-term Trend: UP
As Large Speculators gone back Long, we can start thinking of joining them. If you have a look at the historical charts, you’ll find that in most markets, Large Speculators are on the right side during trends. The fact that they are switching their views about the market, is very exciting! Although we have this large change in positions, I think that in a few weeks, but maybe only in a couple of months, we will see much higher prices.

Swiss Franc
COT Change (52W) / C-20%, LS-19%, SS-20% /
COT Extreme / relative COT extreme /
Although we are a bit away from All Time cot extreme levels, on a 5 year chart you can see that Commercial’s level of net long 30.000 contracts usually meant the start of a rally. We are at this level now. Of course the picture would be clearer if they were at 55-60.000 contracts, but this level of extreme combined with the large change size may convince us to open a long position.

Heating Oil
COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme /
We’ve got All Time extreme levels in the cot report this time in Heating Oil, that could easily mean higher prices soon!

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here

 

[marreco]

Hey bro!

I would like to say that this COT reviews is a real help-tool for the serious trader.I am novice trader and this thread at all are amazing.Thanks for you good work man!


Best Wishes!

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Coffee
COT Change (52W) / C-41%, LS-36%, SS-25% /
COT Long-term Trend: UP
As Large Speculators gone back Long, we can start thinking of joining them. If you have a look at the historical charts, you’ll find that in most markets, Large Speculators are on the right side during trends. The fact that they are switching their views about the market, is very exciting! Although we have this large change in positions, I think that in a few weeks, but maybe only in a couple of months, we will see much higher prices.

Swiss Franc
COT Change (52W) / C-20%, LS-19%, SS-20% /
COT Extreme / relative COT extreme /
Although we are a bit away from All Time cot extreme levels, on a 5 year chart you can see that Commercial’s level of net long 30.000 contracts usually meant the start of a rally. We are at this level now. Of course the picture would be clearer if they were at 55-60.000 contracts, but this level of extreme combined with the large change size may convince us to open a long position.

Heating Oil
COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme /
We’ve got All Time extreme levels in the cot report this time in Heating Oil, that could easily mean higher prices soon!

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here

 

[Dunstan]

Hey bro!

I would like to say that this COT reviews is a real help-tool for the serious trader.I am novice trader and this thread at all are amazing.Thanks for you good work man!


Best Wishes!

Thanks for your kind words my Friend!

All the best,
Dunstan

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Coffee
COT Change (52W) / C-36%, LS-32%, SS-24% /
COT Long-term Trend: DOWN
Large Speculators could not stay long, thus we may easily see the further widening of the cot extreme: Commercials heading back to above 20.000 contracts net long levels. If this is the case, we should expect prices to continue their decline, even if the change this time can be regarded as a bullish signal (but of course we should know by now that cot changes have a short lasting effect -> prices may rise for a few days).

Wheat (Chicago)
COT Change (52W) / C-24%, LS-20%, SS-30% /
COT Extreme / not far from all time COT extreme /
Both of our major cot signals are pointing upwards, a large change in traders positions and the extreme in the market. The last two extremes lasted for quite some time, so we may need to wait a bit for the rally to happen.

British Pound
COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme /
Until we reach the bottom in prices of early this year, the preceding cot extreme is still in place and prices can continue their rally. If the mentioned level is broken and prices fall deeper, we may find ourselves in a similar situation as we had in Japanese Yen a few months ago, a Commercial Capitulation. Of course these rarely happen, so it’s not the scenario we should bet on.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here

 

[sidra]

It sounds impressive. Something cool in the hot season

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Nasdaq-100
COT Extreme / LS-All Time COT extreme /
The cot picture suggests that the rally we see in prices has come to an end, at least temporarily.

Silver
COT Extreme / C – 616 report, LS – 527 report COT extreme /
There’s an unquestionable bullish picture in metals now if we look at the cot report. The question is of course – as always – when would prices react?

Japanese Yen
COT Extreme / LS – 306 report COT extreme /
We know now, that the All Time COT extreme that developed at the end of 2012 did not produce a rally, but rather a rare situation that we call commercial capitulation. The extreme in this market is still present, yet we do not see the weakening of this decline.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

New Zealand Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C&LS 22% /
The latest cot report shows us that both the change in trader’s positions and the extreme in the market are painting a bullish picture. If we look at the longer term charts, we can see that NZD nicely reacted to these extremes. We may need to wait one or two more weeks, before the bottom develops, but it’s definitely getting closer.

Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / C, LS & SS – All Time COT extreme /
The extreme is more evident here than in NZD. The COT report shows us that all major players in the market are at their all time extreme level. The picture is very bullish.

British Pound
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
Seems that the cot extreme that developed a few months ago and which started to push prices higher is still widening. Prices should continue their rally.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Oats
COT Change (52W) / C – 53%, LS 60% /
The large change in the commitments of traders report can be considered a bearish signal, so we may see a bit of a price decline. We can’t talk about a very large cot extreme, but there is a relative one if you just look at a shorter period of time, such as the one-year chart.

Heating Oil
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The extreme is still widening even though prices have reacted to it many weeks ago. We can expect prices to go even higher.

Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The picture in the commitments of traders report is the same as last week, we have a beautiful All Time extreme situation. If you haven’t seen my earlier warnings, it is still not late to take a trade!

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Rough Rice
COT Change (52W) / C – 42%, LS - 53% /
If you remember, we talked about rough rice a few reports ago and now looking at the chart, we can see that the large cot change back then was a very nice bullish signal that resulted in a successful trade for anyone, who took it. This time, we have another large change, but it is a bearish signal. Since we are also close to a bullish cot extreme, the question is: which signal to follow (?). Well, the shorter, one year charts suggests that we should expect a decline in prices --> rough rice reacts to these large changes, so we may expect it to do so again. Of course we shouldn’t forget about the longer term picture too…

Crude Oil
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
Even if Small Speculators seem to be pessimistic about this market (which usually is a bullish signal), the other two major participants are at cot extremes that have a bearish bias.

Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Another Commercial Capitulation? The pictures is very much similar to the once we had in Japanese Yen. We’ve got a huge (All Time) cot extreme, but prices seem to neglect the signal. If this is the case, we can expect a very serious decline in prices.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Nasdaq-100
COT Change (52W) / C – 38%, LS - 31%, SS - 41% /
Large changes in Traders positions that have a bullish bias, but let’s not forget that the recent cot extreme triggered the down leg which may continue further. Analyzing the Volume and Open interest last week, we can see that it is also a bearish signal.

RBOB Gasoline
COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS - 26%, SS - 22% /
COT Extreme / C – 143 Report, LS – 144 report COT extreme /
Bullish picture supported by the large change in the commitments of traders report and also the cot extreme.

Copper
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
We’ve got a huge COT extreme (All Time) in Copper that is telling us: the decline in prices may be over soon.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Oats
COT Change (52W) / C – 34%, LS - 27%, SS – 36% /
The large change in the cot report suggests that prices will rally, but the longer time frame is painting a different picture: there was a pretty large cot extreme last week that may push prices lower.

Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
All Time Extreme still, stress levels are building up. The big question: when can we see prices react to this large extreme or would we witness a rally at all (commercial capitulation).

Gold
COT Extreme / C – 600, LS - 438 report COT extreme /
Stresses are really high in metals these days… we’ve reached extremes that we haven’t seen for over 10 years now!! The pictures is bullish.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Rough Rice
COT Change (52W) / C – 40%, LS - 53% /
It seems that we are witnessing again another large change in traders positions. The last couple of times the signals were affective, so we can expect prices to react to the recent one as well.

Crude Oil
COT Extreme / C – 121 Report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The extreme in Crude Oil is large, but the bearish picture would be even more solid if Small Speculators were at an extreme (above 40.000 contract net long).

Gold
COT Extreme / C – 601 Report, LS – 439 report COT extreme /
The stress level in Gold is extremely high… we’ve reached levels that we didn’t see for over ten years now. In my opinion, we are looking at an extremely bullish picture.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Commitments of Traders basics

 

[d.clerc]

Hi Dunstan,

How do you apply this to trading CFDs on futures?

 

[Dunstan]

Hi Dunstan,

How do you apply this to trading CFDs on futures?

Hi d.clerc,

It doesn’t matter what kind of instruments you use to trade, since in most of the case, you are speculating that prices of commodities will change in one way or the other. What COT analysis can help is to predict, determine the direction in which the movement will be --> prices are likely to rally or decline.

If you read through my earlier posts and have a look at the charts I’ve attached, you’ll find that there is a significant correlation between tops-bottoms and cot extremes for example. If you know that a specific commodity is likely to reach a top soon, then you simply adjust your desired trade to it.

All the best,
Dunstan

 

[d.clerc]

Hi d.clerc,

It doesn’t matter what kind of instruments you use to trade, since in most of the case, you are speculating that prices of commodities will change in one way or the other. What COT analysis can help is to predict, determine the direction in which the movement will be --> prices are likely to rally or decline.

If you read through my earlier posts and have a look at the charts I’ve attached, you’ll find that there is a significant correlation between tops-bottoms and cot extremes for example. If you know that a specific commodity is likely to reach a top soon, then you simply adjust your desired trade to it.

All the best,
Dunstan

Thanks.For trading CFDs using COT,was wondering if it is necessary to look at both the CFD in question chart as well as the underlying(say crude oil)?

Or they should have perfect correlation and looking at the underlying is redundant?

 

[Dunstan]

Thanks.For trading CFDs using COT,was wondering if it is necessary to look at both the CFD in question chart as well as the underlying(say crude oil)?

Or they should have perfect correlation and looking at the underlying is redundant?

Hi d.clerc,

I think it is important to look at both charts.

All the best,
Dunstan