Best Thread Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 24%, LS - 26% /
A bit larger change then average, but I don’t think it deserves too much attention. What’s more interesting is that the extreme is again widening, which means the rally is still not over.

Crude Oil
COT Extreme / C ,LS – All Time COT extreme /
Last week’s comment is still in place: “The extreme in Crude Oil is large, but the bearish picture would be even more solid if Small Speculators were at an extreme (above 40.000 contract net long).”

Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
The All Time extreme situation in Australian Dollar has been present for over a month now and it seems that prices are starting to react.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Commitments of Traders basics

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

Sorry, but it seems that COTbase.com did not post a new Commitments of Traders review this time. Anyhow, I will give you an update as usual

Coffee
COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS - 22% /
The change in the cot report was large and suggesting a bearish move --> as we see it today, prices did decline a bit. The longer/wider picture on the other hand is still pretty bullish: Commercials are net long, which in most cases throughout Coffee’s history happened when prices were low.

Crude Oil
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Prices seem to support us --> the cot extreme may be in effect, thus we can expect the decline to continue.

Lean Hogs
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Commercials and Large Speculators (unfortunately without Small Speculators being in extreme) are at an All Time extreme level in their net positions. This, as we can see in the past is a very bearish signal, so we can expect prices to continue their decline that started roughly two weeks ago.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Commitments of Traders basics

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Soybean Meal
COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS - 22%, SS – 30% /
The change size in recent cot report and the relative extreme that we’re at suggests a bottoming of prices soon. Since we are not at a major extreme level, which would be a clearer signal to act on, we should be careful with a long trade.

Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
All market participants are at All Time or close to All Time extreme levels in their net positions. This means that stress levels are very high in Australian Dollar --> the bubble should burst our sooner or later. Of course the big question is as always: when?

S&P-400
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
The COT Extreme in Indexes is getting larger and larger as prices are moving higher. In my opinion the rally will continue into September and we will get much larger extremes before we reach the top.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Commitments of Traders basics

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Coffee
COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS - 25%, SS – 8% /
The change in commitments of traders report and also the extreme (Commercials net long) both give us bullish signals. When the rally starts, we’re gonna see Commercials go back to deep net short territories.

Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / C & LS – All Time COT extreme /
After last week’s rally it seem that we may have reached the bottom… if the rally continues this week, we should see market participants move away from their extremes.

Lean Hogs
COT Extreme / C & LS – All Time COT extreme /
The picture is pretty obvious here, we are at or close to the top in prices --> the extreme is huge in Lean Hogs!

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Commitments of Traders basics

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Sugar
COT Change (52W) / C – 29%, LS - 25%, SS – 31% /
The latest cot report is showing us that there were large changes in Trader’s positions. This, combined with the extreme in the market suggests that prices should continue their rise.

Copper
COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS - 31%, SS – 11% /
The huge change in Commercials and Large Speculators positions tells us that prices may easily fall a bit, but let’s not forget that a few reports ago, we were at a major cot extreme which signaled the latest bottom and is still in effect.

Lean Hogs
COT Extreme / C & LS – All Time COT extreme /
Although there was a roll-over in contracts here, it is still obvious that price have declined since last week’s signal… the extreme in this market is supporting the further decline of prices.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Commitments of Traders basics

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Dow Jones-30
COT Change (52W) / C – 30%, LS - 28% /
The large change in the latest cot report indicates that prices will rise instead of continuing their decline. The situation in indexes is very exciting, cause we have an extreme or to say: large stresses amongst indexes these days, but I think that (it’s just a feeling) we will see an even greater extreme in the next few weeks/months, before prices really reach a top.

Live Cattle
COT Change (52W) / C – 23%, LS - 24%, SS – 11% /
Both of our major cot signals are telling us that prices will fall --> We’ve witnessed another large change in Trader’s positions and as it happened, we’ve reached a relatively larger cot extreme (let’s just open a three year long chart) that is bearish signal.

Cotton
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
There is a definite extreme in Cotton as we can see and prices have already reacted.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Commitments of Traders basics

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 34%, LS - 27% /
The situation is interesting here, because the large change in Trader’s position is suggesting that price should rebound / get back into rally mode, but then again, we’ve just reached a cot extreme level that could easily turn this uptrend into a down trend.

Cotton
COT Change (52W) / C – 21%, LS - 22%, SS – 15% /
Similarly to S&P, we’ve got the two major cot signals pointing in opposite directions: the change is suggesting that prices will rise, but the extreme is still in place and it is showing us a bearish picture.

Cocoa
COT Extreme / Close to All-Time COT extreme /
The Extreme in Cocoa is pushing prices lower. If Commercials could reach a net short level of <25-20.000 contracts, we’d get a relative extreme that may push prices to rally mode.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Commitments of Traders basics

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

EURO
COT Change (52W) / C – 16%, LS - 12%, SS - 27% /
EURO became first on the list in respect to large changes in Commercials positions.. this could mean that prices will rally, but the cot extreme (relative) that is present suggests that prices will continue their fall. It’s not a clear picture…

Cocoa
COT Extreme / Close to All-Time COT extreme levels in C and LS /
The cot extreme that is present in this market is telling us that prices cannot rally for too long anymore. I agree with it.

5-Year Note
COT Extreme / C-293 report, LS – 179 report, SS – 394 report COT extreme /
The extreme is pretty clear, so we are expecting a bottom to develop soon… of course, looking at longer charts (>10 year), we can find even greater extremes, so if prices continued their decline, we shouldn’t be surprised.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Commitments of Traders basics

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Sugar
COT Change (52W) / C – 34%, LS - 26%, SS - 45% /
The large change in Trader’s positions suggest that prices will drop. Of course we never should forget to look at the bigger picture. If we open a longer chart, we can find that not long ago we were in a very bearish looking cot extreme situation (commercials net long). Traders are moving away from these extreme territories, and as they do, prices are rallying.

Cocoa
COT Extreme / All-Time COT extreme levels in C and LS /
Last week’s comment is still alive: prices should reach a top soon.

5-Year Note
COT Extreme / C-408 report, LS – 293 report, SS – 411 report COT extreme /
Judging by last week’s price reaction, we may have reached the bottom.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Commitments of Traders basics

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 44%, LS - 36%, SS - 26% /
The large change in Trader’s positions may shake prices a bit (we could see declining prices), but in the medium/long term, I don’t see, why prices could not rally further. Since the last major cot extreme, prices are again going higher/stress levels are decreasing. I may be wrong, but I would expect a larger, close to All-Time cot extreme to signal the top.

British Pound
COT Change (52W) / C – 24%, LS - 28%, SS - 11% /
The cot change and the relative extreme in the market may put an end to the rally. The fact that only Small Speculators are optimistic about the rally is also a bearish signal. Of course one may argue: stress levels in British Pound are not at their peak levels yet, thus prices can rally further… well, as always, I urge everyone to look not only at the cot data, but use it together with other TA tools. Simply looking at a longer chart, it is clearly visible, that prices are not far from important resistance levels.

Corn
COT Extreme / C-448 report, LS – 449 report COT extreme /
If we look at a longer chart, we can see that all obvious bottoms in prices correlated with major cot extremes, when commercials were net long. This is the situation right now.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Commitments of Traders basics

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Dow Jones-30
COT Change (52W) / C – 42%, LS - 29%, SS - 54% /
COT Extreme / C-553 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The huge change in Trader’s positions and the All Time cot extreme both are very strong bearish signals… the rally be over for some time now.

USD Index
COT Change (52W) / C – 28%, LS - 26%, SS - 18% /
If we analyze the past one year of the USD Index, we can find that it reacted pretty well to cot change signals. In the latest report we can find a larger that average change, which can be considered a bullish signal.

Cocoa
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Stress levels are high, we are expecting prices to reach a top soon.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Commitments of Traders basics

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

It seems that the U.S. Shutdown has an effect on us, people who follow the cot reports. The CFTC has stopped issuing the reports for now. Let’s hope that this situation will not last very long!

All the best,
Dunstan

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

CFTC has resumed publishing the cot reports, they are up-to-date again! 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Soybean Meal
COT Change (52W) / C – 31%, LS - 36%, SS - 18% /
If we look at the last one year, we can find that similar large changes in Trader’s positions preceded the rallies. Although we don’t have a large extreme in the cot report, the recurring patterns seem to be convincing.

Nasdaq-100
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
There is an unquestionable bull market here… even if we’ve got an All Time cot extreme that is indicating a top, we should be very careful entering against the obvious trend. Of course the Risk/Reward on such a trade could be pretty tempting

Cocoa
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The large cot extreme in Cocoa has been present for many weeks now, but without any real price reaction. Still, I think there is great opportunity here, so we shouldn’t forget about this market!

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Commitments of Traders basics

 

[Liquid validity]

Keep it up, one of the best threads on here

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

(Sorry for my late update… I took a little holiday , just came back yesterday)

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Copper
COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS - 30% /
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
The very large change in Trader’s positions and the unquestionable extreme in the market both suggest prices should go higher. This, together with close support levels adds up to an exciting trading opportunity that should be investigated more closely.

Japanese Yen
COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS - 38% /
COT Extreme / C – 334 report, LS – 331 report COT extreme /
The even greater change last week could not affect prices positively, so I’m not expecting the recent changes to do any better… the extreme has been present for almost a year now, but the down trend is obviously intact. Trading this market to the upside looks pretty risky, even though we’ve got large stresses built up in it.

Cotton
COT Extreme / C – 52 report, LS – 50 report COT extreme /
Commercials have again become net long, only small speculators are holding short contracts… If we investigate the historical charts, we can see that usually prices bottomed out, when we had a similar case. The volume and open interest scores also support the bullish bias that we have.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Commitments of Traders basics

 

[Vunhat]

Nice to learn your trading techniques. Thanks for the insights.

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

5-Year Note
COT Change (52W) / C – 22%, LS - 22%, SS – 19% /
Looking at a longer chart, we can see how the recent cot extreme managed to push prices higher. The bearish signal coming from the latest report (large changes in Traders positions) suggests that we could see a bit of a decline in prices, but let’s not forget the strength of a cot extreme signal --> until we reach an opposite cot extreme (Large Specs above 300.000 contracts for example), I believe the last extreme is still in place.

Japanese Yen
COT Extreme / C – 335 report, LS – 332 report COT extreme /
I hope everyone took my advice last week and stepped away from this market As we can see, even though we’ve got this close to all time cot extreme in the market, prices don’t seem to bother… I believe (but it’s really just my feeling) that we will stress levels in Japanese yen rise even further.

Wheat
COT Extreme / C – 20 report, LS – 79 report COT extreme /
Analyzing the historical chart, we can see how well wheat reacts to cot signals. This time, we’ve got a bullish type cot extreme in the market that’s telling us: prices should start climbing soon.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Commitments of Traders basics

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Dow Jones-30
COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS - 24%, SS – 22% /
Without the large cot extreme, this change in Trade’s positions is not enough for me to really seriously consider a larger short trade… I’m not convinced.

Japanese Yen
COT Extreme / C – 336 report, LS – 335 report COT extreme /
The picture still seems to me more bearish than bullish, even if we’ve got this enormous (but still not All Time!!) cot extreme. I do believe that we can see further increase of the stress level present in this market, maybe even to all time levels, before prices reach a bottom.

Rough Rice
COT Extreme / C – 22 report, LS – 108 report COT extreme /
Interesting to see, how different the picture is on a longer chart that on a shorter one… If we look from high above, we see more of a bullish type cot extreme, but as we narrow down our perspective, we can see the relative extremes that were pushing prices back down.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Commitments of Traders basics

 

[JonathanLeon]

Thanks Dustan! Great stuff.

 

[Dunstan]

Thanks Dustan! Great stuff.

No problem, I'm glad you enjoy the thread! Just let me know if you have any questions!

All the best,
Dunstan