Best Thread Firewalker's Journey: A path of discovery in search for enlightenment

[dbphoenix]

Well eh, because my broker has no backfill and I don't have a free data provider...

And how much money have you lost so far?

 

[firewalker99]

And how much money have you lost so far?

Don't really see the relevance in posting that on a public forum.
For some the amount will look a lot, for others it would be sustainable. For me, it was without the limits of tolerable and more than I could afford to lose. I'm not talking about thousands, no it's more, much more. Anyway, this is not my main concern for the moment as I abandoned the quest for gaining it back. Now, all I want to do is learn how to trade.

Yes, I should never have started trading realtime in the first place.
Yes, I was a stupid thing to do.
Yes, I let emotions take control over me.
and so on...

I suppose you're trying to tell me get a decent data provider... Esignal or the likes?

 

[dbphoenix]

What I'm suggesting is that you've been penny wise and pound foolish. While trying to save money, you've been trading without a setup, you haven't done any testing, you haven't developed a trading plan. This route has wound up costing you far more than you would have spent on access to historical intraday FDAX charts. Even so, when I ask why you haven't done the backtesting, you respond that your broker has no backfill and you don't have a free data provider.

If you want to be a winning trader, you at the very least have to do what winning traders do, and that, at a minimum, means putting together a trading plan, and putting together a trading plan requires, at a minimum, access to historical charts. If you want to collect these charts day by day for a year or more for "free", that's up to you. But if you want to get on with it, I suggest you subscribe to Sierra Charts, which costs less than $20/mo and which can use IB as a free datafeed, if you have an account with IB. If you don't have an account with IB, I suggest you get one.

Db

 

[firewalker99]

What I'm suggesting is that you've been penny wise and pound foolish. While trying to save money, you've been trading without a setup, you haven't done any testing, you haven't developed a trading plan. This route has wound up costing you far more than you would have spent on access to historical intraday FDAX charts. Even so, when I ask why you haven't done the backtesting, you respond that your broker has no backfill and you don't have a free data provider.

If you want to be a winning trader, you at the very least have to do what winning traders do, and that, at a minimum, means putting together a trading plan, and putting together a trading plan requires, at a minimum, access to historical charts. If you want to collect these charts day by day for a year or more for "free", that's up to you. But if you want to get on with it, I suggest you subscribe to Sierra Charts, which costs less than $20/mo and which can use IB as a free datafeed, if you have an account with IB. If you don't have an account with IB, I suggest you get one.

Db

Thanks for the advice, I'll look into it. Btw I have an IB account.

I have done backtesting on ER2 using Trademaven though, you don't say anything about that? Or are you suggesting I have to develop a totally different strategy for both markets because I'd like to trade DAX in the mornings and ER2 in the afternoon/evening (local time).

 

[dbphoenix]

In order to answer your question, I'd have to know what your backtesting consists of and what the results are.

Db

 

[firewalker99]

In order to answer your question, I'd have to know what your backtesting consists of and what the results are.

Db

Backtesting consisted of replaying the day with fast forward. "Results" if you can call them that were:

Most of the time I didn't find usefuls setups, as seems to be the case here again. When I did found one either my stop was triggered or the trade never reached my target before turning back to breakeven. Of course there were succesful ones also, but you could count them on one hand.

Have to admit that testing wasn't as rigorous as you probably would like to see. But my question remains: if I were to test my plan on ER2 or any other for that matter, is there any reason so suspect it could have a different result depending on each market? Some say yes, because every market is different in it's own way. Others say no, because the basic principles that have existed before, still do, regardless of the time frame, market, instrument,...

 

[dbphoenix]

FW, what I would like to see is of no importance whatsoever. What is important is whatever puts you into the black.

If you've read the threads below on trading plans and trading journals, plus the posts in the PV and S/R threads, and you think that backtesting consists of "replaying the day with fast forward", then I have to cry Uncle.

Best of luck to you in your trading.

Db

 

[firewalker99]

FW, what I would like to see is of no importance whatsoever. What is important is whatever puts you into the black.

If you've read the threads below on trading plans and trading journals, plus the posts in the PV and S/R threads, and you think that backtesting consists of "replaying the day with fast forward", then I have to cry Uncle.

Best of luck to you in your trading.

Db

No, that's not what I think now backtesting should consist of. I was just stating what I did at that particular time... Although I do think that replaying the day can be of use instead of just looking at old charts? (with fast forward I didn't mean skipping through the day, but playing "as-if" in real time but 3 times as fast, not 100 if tha'ts what you thought I meant).

 

[firewalker99]

August 9 Summary

* Added possible R from previous day @ 5695 = confirmed throughout the day

* Signals:
- breakthrough 5675 around 1000, no retracement though and further decline below 5650
- breakthrough 5650 at 1045, retracement back to 5650: short entry at 1200, first target was 5636 (ATR=7), stoploss at 5657 was hit around 1245
- clear breakthrough 5695 at 1500, no retracement back to that line however
- breakthrough around 2045 back below 5695 was not on minimum 3 WRB closing near low so no clear signal and even if it were clear, no retrace happened

* Appears to be a "zone" around 5615-5620 where price hesitates (already noticed on previous weekly and previous monthly chart)

:!: 5675 didn't seem to offer much S/R...

 

[firewalker99]

August 10 Preparation

* Attached: updated monthly chart + chart of previous 2 days
* Notice price closed around same price as opening on previous day
* Keep an eye on trade balance news (stay out of market)

 

[wasp]

Hi firewalker,

I hope you don't mind me taking the libety of posting this. From the little DAX data I have this may not work but an option from my point of view for a strategy you could look at and maybe work with?

Basically the series of higher highs and higher lows building up to the S/R levels followed by a new candle above the S/R would then signal a trade. Vica versa in a downtrend. At least with this you have a solid ground to apply to back and forward testing. Exit strategy is something to work on.

As you know my PA knowledge is limited and I'm sure the more exerienced could voice their opinion of the validity of the approach and I think volumes may help you too but its an idea?!

My apologies if this has just filled your head with more opinions rather than helping.

 

[rainman2]

Hi fw,

Here's a different take with a lot of hindsight analysis. I would actually like to here opinions about wide range bodies as s/r zones.

 

[firewalker99]

Hi fw,

Here's a different take with a lot of hindsight analysis. I would actually like to here opinions about wide range bodies as s/r zones.

Take a look at my trading plan, I'm actually trying out something based on WRB breakouts. Thanks for the reply, but I think your analysis does include quite some hindsight analysis. If you're able to take those positions in real time (being on the right side of every trade each time) than congratulations. Am I right when assuming you're buying the first bar that breaks through S/R? Don't know what your target/exits are (apparently after the trendline was broken), but I've tried that approach too at one time, and it left me with empty pockets. Take a look at one of my older charts. Of course a lot has to do with drawing the "right" S/R lines.

 

[firewalker99]

I hope you don't mind me taking the libety of posting this. From the little DAX data I have this may not work but an option from my point of view for a strategy you could look at and maybe work with?

As you know my PA knowledge is limited and I'm sure the more exerienced could voice their opinion of the validity of the approach and I think volumes may help you too but its an idea?!

Don't mind at all. Don't know if your price knowledge is so limited, I think mine could be even less. Volume is left out of the equation because it kept throwing be confusing signals. I saw things on the chart that indicated a possible long position but volume showed me otherwise and vice versa. So perhaps I was looking too much at it, instead of looking at it only at pivotal points like at S/R zones, tops, bottoms... Still haven't figured that one out though.

I am trying to find a strategy based on S/R so any opinion on the matter can be helpful, if not worth discussing for what I'm concerned. About what I've learned and heard people comment on my charts, I'd say you focused on a couple of bars in particular (marked by the red lines) which seem a bit like you were looking for something to confirm what you had in mind. If that's the case one can always find some confirmation of his or her ideas. For example: at point 10 I'm assuming it's gonna be a retest of point 1, after which price could plummet down. Say I were looking for signals to confirm that assumption I would have the second bar that touches 5695 but reaches lower. Three bars further I'd have a WRB downbar right down to your blue line. After which I'd short. I took a look at volume and noticed high volume at the upbar (point 9) which is generally considered as a sign of weakness. So I'd have three signals confirming my entry.

But back to your entries, I think they all had potential as none of them went in the wrong direction afterwards, although you bought at the high.

 

[firewalker99]

August 10 Summary

Trades:
* Breakthrough at 1000, waited for retracement to 5625, then shorted. ATR=7 ==> first target 5611, second 5604 both were succesfull. No further possible entries.

 

[ymonly]

too much information ......sometimes we need to totally delete everything except the very best discoveries and start over.........or just use the very best discoveries and the least # of those we can get by with.......1 chart.......1 time frame...is good...looking at other stuff also for confirmation is simply looking for excuse not to trade...... confirmation is another way to avoid the pain of losing again... nq es ym er ......

 

[firewalker99]

Bit busy at the moment FW, I'll get back to you tonight.

as you requested, some blank dax charts including volume
some are definitely trending, others ranging days..
have a go

 

[firewalker99]

too much information ......sometimes we need to totally delete everything except the very best discoveries and start over.........or just use the very best discoveries and the least # of those we can get by with.......1 chart.......1 time frame...is good...looking at other stuff also for confirmation is simply looking for excuse not to trade...... confirmation is another way to avoid the pain of losing again... nq es ym er ......

Everybody's saying you should ALWAYS look at a different time frame (look at "the big picture") and then zoom in for an entry, so I'm not sure where you're going with this?

 

[wasp]

Catch 22

Everybody tells you to be disciplined and stick to your plan but you'd love to take an off-the-peg-system because you know they work as they have made others money. You try and try to come up with a plan of your own but you never seem to move forward as you trade it, its good for a few days then you take a few losses, make a few mistakes, get pissed off, then start trading with no solid reasoning....

We have all been there mate... my PM last night, TheBrambles post I forwarded to you... You will get posters who say they paper traded until they were consistent and never blew an account (salt and pinch, large pinch...) Heres a good example for inspiration... Another member here traded for 3 years and blew £50'000 learning... he then spent a year studying and testing and paper trading and doing it all again.... He now earns 6 figures a year but it came through hard work, long slogs and alot of discipline.

I'm not saying you need lose 50k to become profitable but you do need a good plan before the disicpline becomes relevant as without one, you can't win...

This is where the long slog and hard work comes in... To achieve my MA system, I tested 10 years worth of charts, by hand, each day singulary, checking the best option for the stoploss, trailing or targets, entries and exits, money management and leverage... everything, sometimes going back and starting all over again... its a nightmare but a neccessary one. db and co' can help you understand the market but no-one can help you come up with a plan that fits your requirements.

I read you don't have access to alot of data? You need it...

What you need to do (all IMO of course) is thus.......

Take a look at 5 charts, see where you could see good opportunities... find one that produces more winners or more points vs losses on those charts...

Then, get a couple of years worth of data and study, study, study.... Do it till your eyes bleed and your addicted to Nurafen.... Do it until your trading your plan like a barman pulling pints.... Till you can trade your plan and not care! You need to test every situation and possibility and every angle. Check entries and exits until it will work more than you need and then you can trade it with discipline and unfetering emotion....

The profits from trading have to be earnt through alot of work... Its like anything similar... Trading on the web is so common that anyone thinks they can open an account and make millions but you wouldn't try brain surgery after reading a couple of books, or try to sue someone in court after a few episodes of Perry Mason... it takes work, and lots of it!!!

Sorry! but it will be worth it in the long run though...

 

[wasp]

as you requested, some blank dax charts including volume
some are definitely trending, others ranging days..
have a go

Cheers FW but bear in mind that it is going to be my price action analysis and its not something I'm very good at! Still learning myself but hopefully it will give you some inspiration and ideas. A trading plan isn't just the entries and exits, its everything. Your time, your money, your risk comfort, your goals and targets so it has to be yours in the end...