Facebook shares

chinabean

Active member
109 9
haha, occasionally it is actually alright to punt (IMHO)...... In a calculated way of course! ;)

Good discussion though :)
 

chinabean

Active member
109 9
Still going up, it's quite amusing to see "analysts" changing their recommendation to buy or overweight and admitting they got it wrong :)
 
L

Liquid validity

0 0
Still going up, it's quite amusing to see "analysts" changing their recommendation to buy or overweight and admitting they got it wrong :)

Well I won't be :LOL:
If you are just day/swing trading the hype fair enough.
Talking of FB in terms of a position trade is something else.
Thats why I tend to urge caution in these situations.
I couldn't care less if FB goes to $400, without a fundamental basis, its just hype.
You are obviously aware of that, also nothing wrong with trading that.

There are plenty of muppets who aren't, some of whom are dumb enough to
bet the farm in these situations, seen it before, not nice...
People get carried away and think its going to go like Apple.
It may well do, but as I said earlier, there is no sound foundation to
currently base the over inflated price on.
All I'm saying is be realistic and clear about the risks involved.

Buffett and Munger won't buy Facebook stock - May. 6, 2012
Buffett Says Buying Facebook for a Pop Was Terrible Idea - Businessweek
Why Warren Buffett stayed away from the Facebook IPO
Facebook Share Repurchase Should Make Warren Buffett Proud | Technology | Minyanville's Wall Street
 

holmes16

Junior member
32 2
hello,

i just posted this on another FB thread, but thought that it would apply here as well:

One thing to keep in mind with FB is how the Americans take companies public. They tend to issue a very small percentage of the float to the public. This means that all the crazies that believe the stock should be worth $1000 will serve as a backstop.

thanks,
 

chinabean

Active member
109 9
Well I won't be :LOL:
If you are just day/swing trading the hype fair enough.
Talking of FB in terms of a position trade is something else.
Thats why I tend to urge caution in these situations.
I couldn't care less if FB goes to $400, without a fundamental basis, its just hype.
You are obviously aware of that, also nothing wrong with trading that.

There are plenty of muppets who aren't, some of whom are dumb enough to
bet the farm in these situations, seen it before, not nice...
People get carried away and think its going to go like Apple.
It may well do, but as I said earlier, there is no sound foundation to
currently base the over inflated price on.
All I'm saying is be realistic and clear about the risks involved.

Buffett and Munger won't buy Facebook stock - May. 6, 2012
Buffett Says Buying Facebook for a Pop Was Terrible Idea - Businessweek
Why Warren Buffett stayed away from the Facebook IPO
Facebook Share Repurchase Should Make Warren Buffett Proud | Technology | Minyanville's Wall Street

So what is the fundamental basis for not buying it below $20? Hype is in all markets and all products, it is a fact of markets hence the saying "markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." Also, hype goes both ways, people believe a stock will soar just as much as they believe a stock will tank without properly evaluating a) what's going on with the company and b) what's actually happening in the market in relation to positioning.

Don't forget as well, there is a whole industry out there that invests in relatively higher risk companies a'la stage 1 (and 2) private equity. Also, there are numerous studies out there that have analysed the "worst to first" tendancy of markets over the last 50-100 years (ie take the 3 or 5 worst stocks as well as the 3 or 5 best performing stocks at the end of each year, analyse their performance over the next year and you find that over the long-run, the worst stocks of the previous year outperform the best stocks of that same year. I'm not advocating that as a strategy to anyone but giving it as an example of how value often comes from the places you wouldn't think to look.)

The other classic mistake a lot of people make is that they anchor their decisions in the past......not sure if you have but if you ever study decision bias, this is one of the key issues that people often stumble over. They keep thinking back to the past and it colours their view of the future and in some respects, the very article links you posted kinda show this. They are all (bar one) about the IPO. Without being rude (as I am not :) ) who cares about the IPO, it's in the past, it has gone. All that matters is whether the company has prospects to trade up from a pre-identified level (in my case, $18-$20) and if so what are the reasons. Is there risk involved? Yes most definitely but there is risk involved in all trades that are made bar pure arbitrage and even then there is gap risk (be it down to micro-seconds). So I do agree that one should be realistic about the risks involved and definitely not bet one's whole portfolio on a single stock however, at the same time, I'm a firm believer in spreading a portfolio amongst products/shares of different risk profiles. Hence, always sticking to high yielding stocks is great for your mutual fund (relative value) fund manager but that is not what I am, I want to make as high a return on a risk/adjusted basis as possible, IMHO that means looking for significantly undervalued products and acting accordingly.

The funny thing is I don't even use facebook that much ie last time I used it was in September.......... but I do think that (for a few different reasons) when it was trading below $20 it was a trade worth taking :)
 
L

Liquid validity

0 0
Fair points, like I said, I know you are aware of those points.

On a personal level, TBH I just don't believe in FB enough to put any money in it.
My opinion is its just another tech fad bubble.
Can I prove that, am I definitely right - in a word, no.
Good luck to you :)
 

babymonkey

Active member
112 7
Facebook is here to stay. Look at the amount of personal "storage" that has been invested into that site. Most users don't know how they would live without it. It is your all in one social planner, photo storage, and birthday reminder. To me it seems that there is simply too much data stored there to lose.
 
L

Liquid validity

0 0
Facebook is here to stay.

Nothing is here to stay, and nothing lasts indefinitely.
Thats where my stance comes from, only takes someone to
do it better, with greater appeal to the yoof masses, and FB is toast.
 

danishone

Junior member
16 0
Hey guys, been a while since i've been on here but I been watching facebook shares and now that theyve hit a new low im contemplating buying a few to hold for a while.
Anyone think its a good or bad time to buy?

Dont buy facebook shares it is hype!
 

babymonkey

Active member
112 7
I work in the technology sector. Facebook is the social media king. When you here the word "social" (and how often do you hear that), what they are really saying is Facebook and Twitter. Of those two, Facebook has the only real money making strategy. Facebook's userbase is rapidly approaching Google's.

I believe it is the number 2 internet destination in the world. That is a lot of hype. :)

My clients that run e-commerce sites, say that their advertising dollars go further and create more sales with Facebook ads than with Google. I think one day we will be telling our grandkids, I could have bought Facebook at $20!
 

neil

Legendary member
5,167 748
Dont buy facebook shares it is hype!

Will you stop posting pointless negatives all over t2w.
However, lets try and get some intelligent debate from you: "Why do you consider the shares to be hype?"
List any sources for and against and weigh them.
Look at the replies above you -they make a statement and go on to apply reasoned ? arguement to support their view.
You have left school ?
:whistling
 
 
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