Facebook shares

ZaBu

Member
50 17
I made a comment elsewhere that all FB really needs to do is crack the mobility of computing nut and how to monetise it. That's the only challenge of any relevance imo.

If you think FB will solve this then look for an entry point.

If you think that it will fail in this endeavour then stay away and/or go short.

Personally, I will be looking for an entry point (long) but not until the tie-up periods are out of the way. If it turns out that I miss the boat then so be it.
 
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Vicorka

Active member
246 7
The same as Google and Apple, Facebook is popular and that what drives people to buy. The difference is that Apple and Google are introducing new products on regular basis. Apple made iPhone 5 and Apple TV, Google bought Motorola and made Google TV. Facebook is working on security patches...

Good PR have brought FB owners good money during the first days of trading. Now, it is 40% down... Are you still a fan of FB... Are you still going to buy a stock based on your faith and only the faith in the company or you will do some analysis...

For me, the problem with Facebook is that it has no history of trading on stock market. I cannot go back in the history and analyse how it behaved before. Therefore, I cannot even assume where it will go. Maybe, next summer, when there are at least some data I'll check it...
 

chibiks

Member
52 0
Facebook shares is a reminder and a lesson that the most popular things may not necessarily be the best.
 

chinabean

Active member
109 9
Oh ye of little faith! Markets are tanking but strangely not facebook. Well done Barrons for such a great call. Oh btw, I would NEVER trust Barrons on a call that has not been made by at least one other respected outfit (ie a decent asset manager or equity analyst)...... my reasoning is quite simple, if you're an analyst at Barrons, unless you're fully loaded with shares, it is highly likely that you couldn't get a job at a top hedge fund or be a top performing analyst at a bank. Barrons is good a repository of factual information, not for opinions.....IMHO :)

Anyway, back to facebook. I think the problem people may find on a site like this is that technical analysis is NOT the be all and end all of analysis. In fact, when it comes to equities whilst tech analysis is very useful, fundamental analysis is far better since if you really understand a company then you can pick up a bargain or sell something well over-valued basis future performance.

Still think it's a buy but only below 20 and ideally at 18 (as there are still problems the company has to navigate) though to be honest, that 18 boat may well have sailed.......
 
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Still think it's a buy but only below 20 and ideally at 18 (as there are still problems the company has to navigate) though to be honest, that 18 boat may well have sailed.......

What about the google factor?
Google, Facebook rivalry to heat up in 2012 - Computerworld
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ont-count-out-google-just-yet/article5169586/

For me facebook is still a one trick pony at the mercy of a fickle customer base.
 
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chinabean

Active member
109 9
google smoogle :)

seriously tho, trying to get long below 20 was all about what I perceived to be an over-reaction in relation to some very good things about the company. Google may take some market share over the LT but in reality, google is fighting on many fronts in that, it is trying to fight apple with the nexus/android, microsoft whilst also trying to protect it's share of search. If you look at the efforts of the company, they do not appear to be devoting the same resource to social media as say mobile and so given that, whilst google is a threat, the threat is some way off. Tbh the way I see it, facebook's biggest threat is itself in terms of either taking users for granted, not reacting quickly enough to new technology (the way they were slow to react to mobile) or a lack of direction from the board. The thing to remember is facebook and it's board are still newbies and so will make mistakes but the question is whether they learn from them. My money is on them doing exactly that....... again IMHO :) I go back to Amazon, that stock got absolutely pummelled when it debuted and people then were calling into question the business model, competition etc but look where it is now........
 
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Fair points, though amazon do provide something tangible.
Low price, lots of choice, all from one account.
They now have a good barrier to entry for competitors -
user base, but perhaps more importantly - infrastructure and wholesale
bullying (sorry buying power...:LOL: ).

Facebook are entirely dependent on user base, thats all they have.
Supply is virtual, so can be replicated by anyone with the requisite server
capacity.

Myspace became a victim of its own success, partly due to FB doing it better
and partly as a backlash by the typical demographic against Murdoch.
Zuckerberg is treading that same fine line.

Its quite possible google aren't wasting resources in a massive assault,
instead waiting for a more strategic time to stick the boot in.
In other words, sit back and wait for FB to drop the ball.
 

chinabean

Active member
109 9
True as I said in one of my earlier posts, it is a fairly risky trade but I think below 20 it offers a decent amount of risk/reward. I mean in a couple of years it could be trading at 5 or it could be trading at 50......those are the kind of odds that I don't mind taking.

Also, with 1 billion accounts (plus a decent stack of cash), i'd say that facebook is in a much stronger position than myspace ever was or could have hoped to be.....don't forget that the reasons myspace failed are many-fold, they didn't see where social networking was going in terms of morphing into what we know as social media, the horrible merger with yahoo, a rubbish deal with google etc etc. If anything, I don't think it was a backlash against murdoch but rather poor management of the actual product itself. I think this is where facebook differs in that, inspite of a hash of a float, the actual core product has been managed fairly well hence its rise. The slowness in adapting facebook to mobile shows that mistakes have been made however, as I said, its a young company that could and should learn from its mistakes.

Another point is that google has enough problems of its own since, they are now starting to attract the attention of EU and US regulators into their market position, primarily in search but look at what happened to Microsoft after US regulators/law-makers had finished with them. If anything, I'd say the biggest threat to facebook is twitter rather than google........ Buy-out anyone lol!! Seriously though, if google/microsoft/apple decide to buy twitter then facebook better be on its A game otherwise they're in trouble but IMHO that's a bit of a way off in which time the shares can still rally.

I do agree supply is virtual however, a brand is highly important and that is really the thing with facebook. Think about the amount of times you hear someone saying "just facebook me" or words to that effect. Don't get me wrong, that is not a certainty in terms of maintaining market position by any means however, it emphasises just how strong their market position is, the same way google has that strength in search and no-one gets a look-in.

I just think that people as per usual as doing the stupid herd thing of "oh xxxs company was heavily sold on the IPO and therefore, the company has to be a dud" without actually looking at the company itself. I mean like it or not, there is a facebook account for every 7 people in the world, therefore, if (and this is really the decisive factor) the company can provide a decent mobile platform offering that can bring revenue whilst still allowing users to utilise the site without too much interference then the shares will rally and if they don't it will become obvious fairly soon and at below 20 the trade can be exited without a stupedous loss......lol unlike those who bought it at 38 and above!!!

p.s an interesting point is that institutional investors are now starting to load up on FB and not just traditional asset managers but some of the decent HFs out there which normally is a good sign........normally being the operative word :B
 
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I just think that people as per usual as doing the stupid herd thing of "oh xxxs company was heavily sold on the IPO and therefore, the company has to be a dud" without actually looking at the company itself.
Barrons may have made a crap short term call, nevertheless, as things stand
FB is overvalued.
BA-AZ784E_faceb_G_20120922013605.jpg


therefore, if (and this is really the decisive factor) the company can provide a decent mobile platform offering that can bring revenue whilst still allowing users to utilise the site without too much interference then the shares will rally and if they don't it will become obvious fairly soon and at below 20 the trade can be exited without a stupedous loss......lol unlike those who bought it at 38 and above!!!
True.
Maybe thats the ball google are waiting for FB to drop.
The mobile platform...after all google are hardly new to the mobile arena.
Personally though, FB is just a punt in my view.
 

wackypete2

Legendary member
10,229 2,055
If anyone is still looking to get short now is the perfect time. Yesterday was a gift, IMO.
Personally, I wouldn't touch it either way.

Peter
 

thunderstruck

Junior member
36 0
Personally, I wouldn't touch it either way.

Me neither ...... wouldnt short right now either .Its an interesting case study. I cant see what facebook can do to dazzle the world and justify its capitalization . If it only focuses on facebook the social network i dont see a blooming future . Users at some point will follow the-whichever- new trend .

Facebook has to diversify and offer new applications of whatever kind to users . "Clients" may be in the store right now but if they get bored of browsing the same products they will flee . People need something new right now.
 

kwickwool

Well-known member
291 30
Facebook, yes has what a billion accounts now but where is the real revenue for it? ultimately it is 99.9% for personnel use to keep up to date with friends and the commercial world just does not seem to fit into it that well.

Thought it was well over priced(yes we can all say that now) and although huge following etc it still has to hit that real revenue stream and make use of all those users, which it does not? never liked its value, still do not like its value, and may well be $5 in a few years time...............
 

chinabean

Active member
109 9
Personally though, FB is just a punt in my view.

Ok, firstly, if you read my earlier posts, you'll see that's exactly what I said, it was probably worth a punt at $18. There are a lot of unknowns as with the majority of tech IPOs that is the same.

Secondly, what you have pasted there from means very little without context (apart from the information on lock-ups). The reason why is pretty simple, if you can tell me what Google and Apple's PE was in say 2003, you'll get an idea of why, it's all about context. I'm not saying facebook is going to emulate the growth of google's price (or apple) but people need to understand what generally happens with tech PEs.......

As for the mobile part, "mobile platform" does not have the same meaning for FB as Google since Google have actually designed Android, an OS (not to mention the Nexus). Facebook has to be able to incorporate ads into it's mobile offering...... Let's see, they have gone from basically nothing in Q1, to around $50m in Q2 to around $150m in Q3, that's not bad growth from my perspective.

Do not misunderstand me, I am not saying it is a conviction buy but if (I'm not saying whether I have or not as some of this is related to my professional life) you can get it at a decent price and then trade around it, you wind up ending up with a position which is about 30%-40% onside.

My main point was threefold though:

a) at 18 it was worth a punt

b) don't just blindly trust Barrons or anybody else, do your own homework and understand companies not technicals.

c) try and get into the mindset of what is going to happen rather than what should, these are 2 very different concepts that people misunderstand. Should refers generally to technical dogma, is generally refers to understanding sentiment..........

p.s i'm not saying buying facebook here......... :)
 

ZaBu

Member
50 17
Facebook, yes has what a billion accounts now but where is the real revenue for it? ultimately it is 99.9% for personnel use to keep up to date with friends and the commercial world just does not seem to fit into it that well.


1 billion accounts - that's a lot of eyeballs. When TV was new what exactly was the advertising model and revenue? Actually, it doesn't matter. It certainly wasn't what it is today. It developed over time as advertisers figured out what worked and what didn't. FB is basically the same, it will take a little time for advertisers to figure out how best to use the medium.

You do touch on an important point though - it's about personal use so advertising cars (GM) doesn't make a great deal of sense, at least not in the usual way online. Nobody buys a car based on a FB ad or recommendation - the purchase decision doesn't work in that way. However, for the myriad of impulse purchases and for local market knowledge the power of recommendation is significantly more powerful.

When I'm in a city I don't know (or even my home town), FB via GPS can identify where I am and then show recommendations of bars, restaurants, hotels, or whatever I might be looking for from friends (assuming I value their opinion of course :LOL:). That might be quite useful for me as a user and is probably something the hotel/bar/restaurant will be willing to pay for.

Rinse and repeat for other types of businesses/products/services.
 
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Liquid validity

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Ok, firstly, if you read my earlier posts, you'll see that's exactly what I said, it was probably worth a punt at $18. There are a lot of unknowns as with the majority of tech IPOs that is the same.
Yes I did read your earlier posts, I know you said it was just a punt.
I was merely saying the same thing, expressing my view.
Secondly, what you have pasted there from means very little without context (apart from the information on lock-ups). The reason why is pretty simple, if you can tell me what Google and Apple's PE was in say 2003, you'll get an idea of why, it's all about context. I'm not saying facebook is going to emulate the growth of google's price (or apple) but people need to understand what generally happens with tech PEs.......
Perfectly true and a fair point.
My point is I wouldn't have punted on google or apple at the same stage either.
As for the mobile part, "mobile platform" does not have the same meaning for FB as Google since Google have actually designed Android, an OS (not to mention the Nexus). Facebook has to be able to incorporate ads into it's mobile offering...... Let's see, they have gone from basically nothing in Q1, to around $50m in Q2 to around $150m in Q3, that's not bad growth from my perspective.
You think FB have an edge over google in advertising and mobile experience?
I can't say I agree there.
If FB can do so, then google definitely can...
Do not misunderstand me, I am not saying it is a conviction buy but if (I'm not saying whether I have or not as some of this is related to my professional life) you can get it at a decent price and then trade around it, you wind up ending up with a position which is about 30%-40% onside.
Thats intriguing, insider info or ramping?
I'm only joking... :)
My main point was threefold though:

a) at 18 it was worth a punt

b) don't just blindly trust Barrons or anybody else, do your own homework and understand companies not technicals.

c) try and get into the mindset of what is going to happen rather than what should, these are 2 very different concepts that people misunderstand. Should refers generally to technical dogma, is generally refers to understanding sentiment..........
a) I don't punt.
b) I don't trust anyone, and I always do my own research :)
c) No one knows what is going to happen at this stage, or any stage.
You may, depending on research have a more educated guess, but thats all it is.
There is no such thing as a foregone conclusion, ever.
Thats the only mindset I have.

p.s i'm not saying buying facebook here......... :)
Neither am I :)
 
 
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