DionysusToast
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Well - if it's beyond your comprehension, you shouldn't give people instructions for trading it's first day...
facebook IPO 18th May Predictions
- Thread starter mrniceguychris
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Well - if it's beyond your comprehension, you shouldn't give people instructions for trading it's first day...
82% long? Are they the punters who bought at $40 and still haven't had their stop-losses hit or run out of margin? Bumper profits for the SBs, I think.
its going to be a brilliant short, for a few reasons,
1. the valuation is absolutely mental, big wall streeters keep spinning off ipo's using words like "Tech" "future" ect to try and justify 100* earnings valuations. if i tried to ipo a manufacturing firm at 100* profits people would look at me like a nutcase, but this is Facebook, (drumroll for the ever present words) so this time its different.. the valuation makes no sense, (i aint gonna give you a better valuation fyi, but i think 6$ a share seems more reasonable, although id still hold out for 3$, even then... the underwriters had to step in to maintain 38$ a share, they are not going to be around even a week from now to prop this share up at all.
2. margin stanley has spent around 2 billion trying to prop the ipo price up according to the rumour mill, estimates vary between 500 million/2 billion on the high end, if the lead underwriter has to go to such extreme undertakings to make sure it seems worth 38$ then it isn't. the fact they even had to says major things about this stock.
3. groupon zynga, just look at those 2 ipo's they suck totally, share price obliterated, can't buck the market, Facebook seems to be heading the same way as those 2, both big overhyped. the people losing out here are the mom and pop investors who get sold this crap from wall st.
4. face books growth is slowing, its profits are inconsistent, if we look at this chart of google trends, we can see the searches for Facebook seem to have peaked, Google Trends: facebook
, in a survey 56% of users said they would not trust Facebook with their bank details ect... so hardly a way to monetize there. the main thing here is though, Facebook may have peaked, a lot of people i know personally are tired of it, (I'm 21) we went from myspace to Facebook, if something better comes along we will go to that, I'm sure of it.. the barriers to entry aren't exactly huge. its lost its cool factor, people don't like to be ipo'd (or get the idea they are a product). The idea of people paying to post is obviously a major turn off for people. also note, we were told that the idea of Facebook being a power brand, everyone is gonna want to own some Facebook, ect. well it turns out, no no they don't. ( or sorry, not enough people to prop up the share price)
5. courtesy of Zerohedge heres some chart porn FaceBook: The Complete Forensic Post-Mortem | ZeroHedge
6. 90% of the FUTURE revenue, they have no idea where they are going to make it from, zuckerbergs acquisitions have been wasteful buying instagram for 1billion? are you serious? even with the best scenarios envisaged 38$ is too much today, not to mention the complete control over the company zuckerberg has, (someone likened him to kim jong un minus nuclear weapons), promoting this edgy idea called the hacker way, its start the current idea circulating is to let users pay to display posts, such as twitter does... this i can't say as an avid user, will be used very much if at all, and further more i can't see it bringing in the revenues that will justify the valuation.
so thats just my quick break down, overvalued, underwriters had to buy stock to keep it above ipo price (big red warning sign that), zynga, group on both died after ipo. Facebook has/is peaking, there is no plan for growth at all certainly not one used to justify the current valuation.
myspace wasn't eternal and Facebook isn't either, happy shorting people.
oh one last thing, id give it a few days before a big short, we have no idea whats gonna happen with the delayed orders ect, so we could get a big spike unexpectedly which aint good, but just looking at it, anything above 41$ seems to encounter heavy selling pressure, if it goes below 37, id probably short then too.
1. the valuation is absolutely mental, big wall streeters keep spinning off ipo's using words like "Tech" "future" ect to try and justify 100* earnings valuations. if i tried to ipo a manufacturing firm at 100* profits people would look at me like a nutcase, but this is Facebook, (drumroll for the ever present words) so this time its different.. the valuation makes no sense, (i aint gonna give you a better valuation fyi, but i think 6$ a share seems more reasonable, although id still hold out for 3$, even then... the underwriters had to step in to maintain 38$ a share, they are not going to be around even a week from now to prop this share up at all.
2. margin stanley has spent around 2 billion trying to prop the ipo price up according to the rumour mill, estimates vary between 500 million/2 billion on the high end, if the lead underwriter has to go to such extreme undertakings to make sure it seems worth 38$ then it isn't. the fact they even had to says major things about this stock.
3. groupon zynga, just look at those 2 ipo's they suck totally, share price obliterated, can't buck the market, Facebook seems to be heading the same way as those 2, both big overhyped. the people losing out here are the mom and pop investors who get sold this crap from wall st.
4. face books growth is slowing, its profits are inconsistent, if we look at this chart of google trends, we can see the searches for Facebook seem to have peaked, Google Trends: facebook
, in a survey 56% of users said they would not trust Facebook with their bank details ect... so hardly a way to monetize there. the main thing here is though, Facebook may have peaked, a lot of people i know personally are tired of it, (I'm 21) we went from myspace to Facebook, if something better comes along we will go to that, I'm sure of it.. the barriers to entry aren't exactly huge. its lost its cool factor, people don't like to be ipo'd (or get the idea they are a product). The idea of people paying to post is obviously a major turn off for people. also note, we were told that the idea of Facebook being a power brand, everyone is gonna want to own some Facebook, ect. well it turns out, no no they don't. ( or sorry, not enough people to prop up the share price)
5. courtesy of Zerohedge heres some chart porn FaceBook: The Complete Forensic Post-Mortem | ZeroHedge
6. 90% of the FUTURE revenue, they have no idea where they are going to make it from, zuckerbergs acquisitions have been wasteful buying instagram for 1billion? are you serious? even with the best scenarios envisaged 38$ is too much today, not to mention the complete control over the company zuckerberg has, (someone likened him to kim jong un minus nuclear weapons), promoting this edgy idea called the hacker way, its start the current idea circulating is to let users pay to display posts, such as twitter does... this i can't say as an avid user, will be used very much if at all, and further more i can't see it bringing in the revenues that will justify the valuation.
so thats just my quick break down, overvalued, underwriters had to buy stock to keep it above ipo price (big red warning sign that), zynga, group on both died after ipo. Facebook has/is peaking, there is no plan for growth at all certainly not one used to justify the current valuation.
myspace wasn't eternal and Facebook isn't either, happy shorting people.
oh one last thing, id give it a few days before a big short, we have no idea whats gonna happen with the delayed orders ect, so we could get a big spike unexpectedly which aint good, but just looking at it, anything above 41$ seems to encounter heavy selling pressure, if it goes below 37, id probably short then too.
That's the worry.
Yes, although if I had a delayed order in I'd be cancelling it after Friday's performance.
thejoblesstrader
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quite agree with eighteen above. think a lot of people are not buying its business model or have concerns whether it can extract value to justify its valuation...
but a the same time these IPO stocks can be very volatile and squeeze in your face.
what do you think lads? short it, buy put or sell call?
but a the same time these IPO stocks can be very volatile and squeeze in your face.
what do you think lads? short it, buy put or sell call?
the hare
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I almost feel a moral responsibility to short facebook..
reason 1)
A recent survey, thought by many to be extremely conservative, indicated that businesses are losing over 230 million hours every month as a result of employees "wasting time" on social networks.
thejoblesstrader
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there we go.. down 11%
tar
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thejoblesstrader
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i wonder if MS lost $ due to stabilization...
About as many as it did ex-millionaires.
TheBramble
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Well, OK, just one more time then. Stop moved down to 32 now. But I’m not moving it again. Although 32 is a Fib so I’ll go for a prime and move it to 30 if it hits 32. But that’s definitely it then. I’ll simply take the loss at 30. I figure it was pure Providence that let me get in on Friday anyway. Everyone else was having problems getting filled and I just strolled in and got my full size on at 41.70 – just like that! What Muppets!
Move that stop to $0 immediately. You wouldn't want to make a loss, now, would you?
wackypete2
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tar
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just average down loser
TheBramble
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You're right. If I never take the loss it's only a paper loss, right? And how likely is it to hit zero? I mean, come on, surely..?
Plus, I can realise my tax loss at any time I like and feel good about not paying tax on that money I just lost.
Trading like this really is a win-win. I don't know why people make out it's so tough.
