EURGBP Short

bax699

Well-known member
473 104
EURGBP has been bearish for a while now. But it looks like there could be a new bull forming. We have completely broken out of that big range it was bouncing up and down in. Price has rejected off the 0.382 Fib, so for me i will be looking for buys if price comes back down to the 50%, previous resistance at the top of that range should turn support, if it holds then i will look for the buy. Its also possible we could break below depending on what GBP has to offer, note RSi is overbought so drop should be imminent.
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bax699

Well-known member
473 104
Been a week since we looked at this pair, and it seems that i was spot on with the call on the hold of price on the 50% fib level. Quite ironic as its not a genuine fib level haha. But just look at those candles, only one wick popped below. The rest were dead on the level. My thoughts is that price might go up to retest the larger weekly trend break, around the 0.236 fib in the magic blue circle, i know you like those :)
Then i think we could revisit the 50% level again. But currently we are 130 pips up from the 50% level i suggested to buy from. Look out for that top fib level for a reversal. GLIYF
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bax699

Well-known member
473 104
Well EURGBP has taken quite the turn. The bull has been tremendously strong these past few weeks. Im not sure how the EUR has remained strong throughout all this trouble with the virus, especially with Italy being so bad. It even had a good run at the Dollar. But against the pound its a clear winner currently. But where will it stop? Im guessing at the Sep high area of 0.914-0.918. if it blast through this area then look for a double top , but its also possibly we could reach new recent highs. One thing i know is that the sell will return a huge amount of pips. All it takes is on piece of good news coming out of the UK. But for now beware of the bull. patience with this one now as its too late to join the ride for me, ill catch it on the way back down
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hatemypips

Established member
702 62
Well EURGBP has taken quite the turn. The bull has been tremendously strong these past few weeks. Im not sure how the EUR has remained strong throughout all this trouble with the virus, especially with Italy being so bad. It even had a good run at the Dollar. But against the pound its a clear winner currently. But where will it stop? Im guessing at the Sep high area of 0.914-0.918. if it blast through this area then look for a double top , but its also possibly we could reach new recent highs. One thing i know is that the sell will return a huge amount of pips. All it takes is on piece of good news coming out of the UK. But for now beware of the bull. patience with this one now as its too late to join the ride for me, ill catch it on the way back down View attachment 276115

It all depends now on how badly will EU or UK hit by coronavirus. Volatility is high, uncertainty is very broad, I would rather wait for more definite times.
 

bax699

Well-known member
473 104
Well everyone, i looked at all the charts today and didnt know which one to mark up and analyse. They are all in a mess. Literally all the pairs i follow, technicals have been blown away eurgbp has moved up since 18th march so exactly a month 2200 pips. Its purely fundamentally driven by the problems were all facing. We can only look to join along the ride at these moment in times. The pound has fallen to all time lows against the dollar and now the euro . AUD has fallen to all time lows. Its crazy what we are witnessing. So remember the trend is your friend currently buy on pullbacks to the 0.786 fib if possible we get any. Be careful who knows it could fall out of the sky. If you trade use a tight stop loss and risk management otherwise you can get in trouble. GLIYF
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bax699

Well-known member
473 104
WEll since we last looked at eurgbp we have dropped a couple of hundred pisps. We can see price came down further and rejected off the .618 Fib level. But was soon back to this region of the previous high levels around 0.91-0.92. Seems to be holding here for the current moment in time. i still think we shold see more of a pullback to the .618 fib again at least. if we make it there then i will buy, ideally i would like it to get to the 50% level for extra conformations, but beggers cant be choosers in these current market conditons. Buy the dips currently until structure is broken then we will re assess. GLIYF
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bax699

Well-known member
473 104
Good Monday morning traders. EURGBP is virtually at my interested point of buying. I would like to see price come a bit more down to the long term diagonal trend and the 50% fib to buy. That way we can get a tighter stop loss to buy.
But we also need to be aware of GBP strength. So its not impossible for it to drop below and retest the underneath side to come back down more. Either way we have a point for entry. Dont be afraid to lose or you'll never win. Risk management and you will be fine. GLIYF
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bax699

Well-known member
473 104
Today were looking at EURGBP again. The drop has continued, EUR looks weak across the board and EURGBP has shown that also. We have dropped through trend and look to be heading towards the .382 Fib we could possibly see a turn there for a pullback in price naturally. But if we dont and we get some more strong bearish momentum then we could drop further to the support level below or the .235 fib By that time its possible the RSI could be screaming for the buy and also show bullish divergence . Keep an eye out for that out. Get your buys ready with tight stops at those levels. GLIYF
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bax699

Well-known member
473 104
Last Monday we started the week with EURGBP so we will do the same this week. I was looking for a drop down the yellow box, which we got perfectly to the .382 Fib level. Didnt even wick below and we came right back up to retest the underneath of that long term trend. But it didnt test it enough for me, so id like to see it push a little higher today and tomorrow before it finds more support at the blue circle with a couple of confluences. Could be a tricky pair this as it could go either way, getting in on the short isnt a bad idea either and holding it. As with either currencies in the current climate anything can happen. Trade safe, risk management as always. GLIYF
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bax699

Well-known member
473 104
Eurgbp has pretty much gone perfectly so far. But we still have to be skeptical. Price came back a 2nd time in the blue circle, so that was your sell signal. The ffirst trade is a nice little 1:2 risk to reward of 120 pips. Thats pretty much hit TP nearly on that fib level. Then you could take some profits and leave a running trade at risk free to the support below IF we get that far. 2nd Trade would be almost 1:4. Then i will be looking for buys, UNLESS it breaks below trend then we could possibly be looking for sells longer term. GLIYF
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bax699

Well-known member
473 104
Since we took profits on EURGBP , it held the level and we got the sign to go long again. It just peeped through the trend line but theyre not always perfect. We got the rejection in the magic blue circle and were on our way back up again. Seeing some weakness in GBP currently but i think we will see more weakness to come in the near future in EUR. So im thinking a short buy up tot he 50% under long term trend level and back down again. If your already in the buy then good job, if not wait for the 50% level for the next sell. GLIYF and RM as always
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bax699

Well-known member
473 104
Ok since we last looked at EURGBP price has done pretty much what i expected. We got the push up from the .382 fib towards the 50% level and the underside of the long term trend line . We got rejection and instantly saw the sell off. you can even see a double top in price so was a fairly easy trade to take. Price currently sits at the .382 fib again and if you want you can take profit here the R:R was good at over 1:2 with 120 pips profit. I am taking profit as i think the next moves here will determine what happens with this pair. Will we drop below that short term trend line and break below previous support? or will price hold here and make another move back up again? personally im going to wait for the break downwards as i feel price is still high end expensive for this pair. GLIYF
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bax699

Well-known member
473 104
Since i last looked at EURGBP , i was looking for the fall through the short term trend, we got that and then we got the perfect re-test. You should of all been easy able to pick this one up. 55 pip stop just above the previous high. Im looking down to the .236 fib level for a 230 pip move and 1:4 R:R minimum. Looks to me like EUR is bearish overall and GBP could gain some strength so we have a good chance of breaking the support zone below which will be crucial. If we do not break it then dont be afraid in taking profit. GLIYF and RM as always
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bax699

Well-known member
473 104
EURGBP SL has been hit. But thats ok we cant win them all, and why we practice risk management. My bias for this pair is that it will still drop as price is naturally high on average. Last setup looks like it was as little too soon to enter, i much prefer this setup with a tighter SL of 35 pips and TP of 180+ pips down to the support zone below. Wait for the rejection in price action around this area if you decide to take it. R:R is a nice 1:5 and a fairly easy one to take . GLIYF
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