ES Trading Journal

[JRP2891]

If you can continue doing that SBing then you'll get a lot more confidence, and you can build from there.

 

[new_trader]

11-02-2009

So, even with S/B I can see this is more an exercise in eliminating fear and hesitation and it’s going to be a real battle to tackle resolve. As you can see I nailed both entries with near surgical precision.

1)
buy £[email protected]
sell £[email protected]
-------------------
0.80

2)
sell £[email protected]
buy £[email protected]
-------------------
1.30

 

[JRP2891]

Nice trading. On what grounds are you exiting? Pre-level, feel, order flow? Is it possible for you to trail a stop?

 

[new_trader]

I trail my STOP when I begin to detect a move has exhausted. If I have got in at the commencement of a big move then usually I get taken out on a minor retrace because I trail my STOP too closely or quickly. If I misjudge the direction or the timing of a move then I get taken out on a major retrace. My STOP is either hit immediately or I get out with a small profit or loss. The skill is in knowing when the move has commenced and getting in at the start and when it has exhausted. This is where I am focusing my efforts.

 

[JRP2891]

Once you're trading a large enough size to do this, it could be an idea to get half out at 1R (risk/stop loss value) leaving your stop in it's original place, which will give your position more room to breathe so you don't get taken out by minor retracements. Should help in running profits more too.

 

[new_trader]

11-02-2009

Last night is a good example of what I mean.

If I got the timing right I'd be almost 10 points in profit. I kept my resolve!

1)
sell [email protected]
buy [email protected]
----------------
(1.25)

2)
sell [email protected]
buy [email protected]
----------------
(2.00)

 

[new_trader]

12-02-2009

Today was a good day, not so much in trading, but in discovery! I haven’t been ‘listening’ to the market the way I ought to have been! When I am on top of my game and trade by the light of experience there is no fear, hesitation or uncertainty and resolve comes easily. But, you need to be sure you are right and the only way to be sure is to not make trades based on what you think. You must study and practice but eventually the market will ‘talk’ to you rather than baffle you as Socrates would say.

Today I believe was another step forward. We shall see.

1)
sell [email protected]
buy [email protected]
----------------
0.75

2)
sell [email protected]
buy [email protected]
----------------
(1.25)

3)
sell [email protected]
buy [email protected]
----------------
1.25

 

[new_trader]

13-02-2009

Ok, not the best trading today, but I am getting better as I make new discoveries, modify former methods and practice overcoming the fear and hesitation. That is going to require a real commitment of capital to get over the hurdle. I would be much more profitable if I could pull the trigger when I get a positive indication to trade, just like I can do it on paper. After two losses in a row I had to dig deep to find the courage to continue trading. But do not mistake this for revenge or over trading! I waited until I got a positive indication to trade and pulled the trigger without fear or hesitation.

1)
sell [email protected]
buy [email protected]
------------
(1.25)

2)
sell [email protected]
buy [email protected]
------------
(1.25)

3)
sell [email protected]
buy [email protected]
------------
0.50

4)
buy [email protected]
sell [email protected]
------------
1.25

 

[new_trader]

17-02-2009

1)
Buy 1@ 791.50
Sell 1@ 790.25
-----------------
(1.25)

2)
Buy 1@ 791.75
Sell 1@ 790.00
-----------------
(1.75)

3)
Buy 1@ 792.75
Sell 1@ 793.50
-----------------
0.75

4)
Sell 1@ 789.75
Buy 1@ 791.00
-----------------
(1.25)

5)
Buy 1@ 791.00
Sell 1@ 791.50
-----------------
0.50

6)
Sell 1@ 795.75
Buy 1@ 797.75
-----------------
(2.00)

7)
Sell 1@ 798.50
Buy 1@ 797.00
-----------------
1.50

8)
Sell 1@ 797.50
Buy 1@ 797.25
-----------------
0.25

9)
Sell 1@ 788.25
Buy 1@ 788.00
-----------------
0.25

Net: (3.00) Excluding commission
win rate: 5/9

I would be more profitable if I could hold trades longer. You will see this if I held onto trade 7 all the way down rather than closing it and entering again.

 

[new_trader]

18-02-2009

1)
Buy 1@ 791.50
Sell 1@ 789.75
-----------------
(1.75)

2)
Sell 1@ 790.25
Buy 1@ 789.75
-----------------
0.50

3)
Sell 1@ 793.75
Buy 1@ 794.00
-----------------
(0.25)

4)
Sell 1@ 788.75
Buy 1@ 788.25
-----------------
0.50

5)
Sell 1@ 787.50
Buy 1@ 788.75
-----------------
(1.25)

6)
Sell 1@ 788.00
Buy 1@ 787.00
-----------------
1.00

7)
Sell 1@ 787.00
Buy 1@ 788.25
-----------------
(1.25)

8)
Sell 1@ 788.00
Buy 1@ 785.00
-----------------
3.00

9)
Buy 1@ 783.50
Sell 1@ 784.00
-----------------
0.50

Net: 1.00 (Exluding commission)
Win Rate: 5/9


It is interesting that I had the same win rate as the 17th only this time I ended up with a net profit in points. I took on board what I learned from trading day 17/02/2009, trade 8 in particular. Trade 3 was closed prematurely (nerves gaining the upper hand) but it would have been profitable as the market only came within 0.50 points of my STOP, but it wasn't acting right, or so I thought after some early losses and after the 17th my judgement was under enormous pressure!! I could have ridden that down all the way to the high 770's to low 780's.

 

[new_trader]

19/02/2009

1)
Buy 1@ 790.25
Sell 1@ 790.50
-----------------
0.25

2)
Buy 1@ 789.00
Sell 1@ 787.00
-----------------
(2.00)

3)
Buy 1@ 788.25
Sell 1@ 789.50
-----------------
1.25

4)
Sell 1@ 795.25
Buy 1@ 795.00
-----------------
0.25

5)
Buy 1@ 795.50
Sell 1@ 794.00
-----------------
(1.50)

6)
Buy 1@ 793.50
Sell 1@ 794.25
-----------------
0.75

7)
Sell 1@ 795.00
Buy 1@ 794.75
-----------------
0.25

 

[new_trader]

20-02-2009

1)
Buy 1@ 769.25
Sell 1@ 768.00
-----------------
(1.25)

2)
Sell 1@ 768.00
Buy 1@ 766.25
-----------------
1.75

3)
Sell 1@ 761.75
Buy 1@ 763.00
-----------------
(1.25)

4)
Sell 1@ 763.25
Buy 1@ 764.25
-----------------
(1.00)

5)
Sell 1@ 765.75
Buy 1@ 765.00
-----------------
0.75

This week was mostly an education. I now have a much better understanding of what is meant by “there should be no haste” which I used to think was a complete contradiction to “hesitation is a deadly enemy”. This is not the case at all! They are both exactly right and do not contradict each other at all. I noticed that most of my successful trades have been made after I’ve been watching the market closely for at least an hour or often longer and this has made me realise that I need to put my indications into context before entering a trade. Trade 5, the last trade of the day is a good example. I only took 0.75 points even though the trade moved almost 3 points in profit before retracing and taking out my STOP which I trailed too soon. The market never came close to my original [email protected] and I could have ridden that trade safely down to the mid to high 750’s. My figuring was 100% right.

No image for the 20th.

 

[new_trader]

23-02-2009

1)
sell [email protected]
buy [email protected]
----------------
(1.25)

2)
sell [email protected]
buy [email protected]
----------------
(1.50)

3)
sell [email protected]
buy [email protected]
----------------
1.25

Ok, trades made this morning. All three were on the short side, my figuring was that the market should breakdown @ 780.00 and move into the low 770’s. I am posting this to see if my figuring was correct and that I should have held onto the last trade.

 

[new_trader]

Market now @777.25

 

[JRP2891]

As you've highlighted on your 3rd trade, potential profit:risk is more important than win rate.

 

[new_trader]

As you've highlighted on your 3rd trade, potential profit:risk is more important than win rate.

But I am aiming to improve my win rate by eliminating losses. Sometimes... no, many times, I just 'know' I have entered at the wrong time. If I can break this tendency I would be doing much better.

 

[JRP2891]

But I am aiming to improve my win rate by eliminating losses. Sometimes... no, many times, I just 'know' I have entered at the wrong time. If I can break this tendency I would be doing much better.

Well that will of course help massively, but if you could also start to ride out your winners longer, these will more than make up for the small losses incurred along the way.

It seems that you get in at the start of the move quite often, you need to find a way to keep you in.

 

[new_trader]

Well that will of course help massively, but if you could also start to ride out your winners longer, these will more than make up for the small losses incurred along the way.

It seems that you get in at the start of the move quite often, you need to find a way to keep you in.

Yes, In the words of Jesse Livermore:

"My plan of trading was sound enough and won oftener than it lost. If I had stuck to it I’d be right perhaps as often as seven out of ten times. In fact, I always made money when I was sure I was right before I began. What beat me was not having brains enough to stick to my own game – that is, to play the market only when I was satisfied that precedents favoured my play."


I probably would have closed the last trade @775.75 and be satisfied with 5.00 points for the trade. I'd be ahead 2.25 points for the day.

 

[new_trader]

1)
sell [email protected]
buy [email protected]
----------------
(1.25)

2)
sell [email protected]
buy [email protected]
----------------
(1.50)

3)
sell [email protected]
buy [email protected]
----------------
1.25

Ok, trades made this morning. All three were on the short side, my figuring was that the market should breakdown @ 780.00 and move into the low 770’s. I am posting this to see if my figuring was correct and that I should have held onto the last trade.

And there you have it...market hits 773.75 and original STOP was completely safe.

 

[JRP2891]

Would've been a nice one, good call though.