new_trader
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NB: I am taking a break until late January 2009
ES Trading Journal
- Thread starter new_trader
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V
vleon1012
hey new_trader, i commend you trying to develop a system that works for you. i tried the futures and did terrible as they just did not seem to make sense to me. when i switched to stocks, at least i am still in the game improving and perhaps some time in the future i will consider the futures again
like me, you struggle w/ psychology and until you have ice in your veins on your picks then i really recommend staying in one contract on the ES
OR
trade the YM futures where it's 5.00 a point instead of 50.00. the YM (dow futures) for the most part mirrors the ES so why not warm up on that instead of the ES?
OR
you can trade the SSO stock, which you can long or short just like the futures as it tracks the futures perfectly (pull up a chart and compare). it's meant for people as an altenative to the futures as its only in its 20s.
as primarily a news trader, i found it much more beneficial to my psycholy and budget to trade the SSO instead of the real ES
just my suggestions and best of luck to you in 09
like me, you struggle w/ psychology and until you have ice in your veins on your picks then i really recommend staying in one contract on the ES
OR
trade the YM futures where it's 5.00 a point instead of 50.00. the YM (dow futures) for the most part mirrors the ES so why not warm up on that instead of the ES?
OR
you can trade the SSO stock, which you can long or short just like the futures as it tracks the futures perfectly (pull up a chart and compare). it's meant for people as an altenative to the futures as its only in its 20s.
as primarily a news trader, i found it much more beneficial to my psycholy and budget to trade the SSO instead of the real ES
just my suggestions and best of luck to you in 09
new_trader
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Back again
Got back yesterday and was tired and jet-lagged but still traded. I felt the need to get back into the game as quickly as possible.
Trade Date: 20-01-2009
buy [email protected]
sell [email protected]
-----------------
0.00
Got back yesterday and was tired and jet-lagged but still traded. I felt the need to get back into the game as quickly as possible.
Trade Date: 20-01-2009
buy [email protected]
sell [email protected]
-----------------
0.00
new_trader
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21-01-2009
sell [email protected]
buy [email protected]
----------------
1.00
Market [email protected]
sell [email protected]
buy [email protected]
----------------
1.00
Market [email protected]
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new_trader
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new_trader
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26-01-2009
1)
sell [email protected]
buy [email protected]
----------------
(1.25)
2)
sell [email protected]
buy [email protected]
----------------
0.25
Right idea but entered too early. I made these trades in the 1st hour of cash market open but didn't have time to post.
1)
sell [email protected]
buy [email protected]
----------------
(1.25)
2)
sell [email protected]
buy [email protected]
----------------
0.25
Right idea but entered too early. I made these trades in the 1st hour of cash market open but didn't have time to post.
Attachments
new_trader
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new_trader
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new_trader
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Hi,
Yes. I don't have enough capital or consistency yet to trade full time. However, I have a lot of access the market because I do shift work, so I am (almost) trading full time but it's just that it isn't my only source of income.
new_trader
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29-01-2009
SERVES ME RIGHT!
NEVER MOVE YOUR STOPS!
1)
buy [email protected]
sell [email protected]
----------------
(2.50)
2)
buy [email protected]
sell [email protected]
----------------
(3.50)
3)
buy [email protected]
sell [email protected]
----------------
(8.50)
Fear and hesitation are going to bankrupt me.
SERVES ME RIGHT!
NEVER MOVE YOUR STOPS!
1)
buy [email protected]
sell [email protected]
----------------
(2.50)
2)
buy [email protected]
sell [email protected]
----------------
(3.50)
3)
buy [email protected]
sell [email protected]
----------------
(8.50)
Fear and hesitation are going to bankrupt me.
Attachments
new_trader
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Results
Some people have expressed an interest in my longer term trading performance so I thought I would publish a summary of my results, which include paper trades. Overall I am still profitable even though it has been dented by my inability to adhere to my rules. I know that if/when I can overcome the nagging problems which afflict me, my results will improve.
From: 13/06/2008
---------------------------------ALL TRADES INCLUDING PAPER)--------------------
TOTAL TRADES-----Number-----Points------$Value-------Commission
Wins--------------------266--------364.00------18200.00
Losses------------------135-------(279.49)----(13,974.50)
Even---------------------15
Total--------------------416--------84.51-------4,225.50-----(3,108.80)
Win Rate= 63.9%
Av Point/Trade= 0.20
Av $/Trade= $2.68
$Net= $1,116.70
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
____________________ LIVE TRADES ONLY________________________
My best ever FULL LIVE trading months have been:
June 2008:
Total Trades=19
Wins=14
Loss=3
Even=2
Points win=10.00
Points loss=(4.25)
Contracts=38
Net:= $177.30 (1 contract)
July 2008:
Total Trades=15
Wins=14
Loss=1
Even=0
Points win=7.75
Points loss=(2.00)
Contracts=30
Net:=$200.50(1 contract)
September 2008:
Total Trades=23
Wins=19
Loss=4
Even=0
Points win=28.00
Points loss=(14.50)
Contracts=92
Net:=$408.20(2 contracts)
_______________________________________________________________
My methodology is sound but I keep falling into the same old pattern. ie/ Have a few wins, gain confidence, increase trading unit, suffer a loss, try again, lose, etc.
02/10/2008 was a major turning point, I finally gained the confidence to trade 3 contracts, suffered a loss and.....
I will persevere.
Some people have expressed an interest in my longer term trading performance so I thought I would publish a summary of my results, which include paper trades. Overall I am still profitable even though it has been dented by my inability to adhere to my rules. I know that if/when I can overcome the nagging problems which afflict me, my results will improve.
From: 13/06/2008
---------------------------------ALL TRADES INCLUDING PAPER)--------------------
TOTAL TRADES-----Number-----Points------$Value-------Commission
Wins--------------------266--------364.00------18200.00
Losses------------------135-------(279.49)----(13,974.50)
Even---------------------15
Total--------------------416--------84.51-------4,225.50-----(3,108.80)
Win Rate= 63.9%
Av Point/Trade= 0.20
Av $/Trade= $2.68
$Net= $1,116.70
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
____________________ LIVE TRADES ONLY________________________
My best ever FULL LIVE trading months have been:
June 2008:
Total Trades=19
Wins=14
Loss=3
Even=2
Points win=10.00
Points loss=(4.25)
Contracts=38
Net:= $177.30 (1 contract)
July 2008:
Total Trades=15
Wins=14
Loss=1
Even=0
Points win=7.75
Points loss=(2.00)
Contracts=30
Net:=$200.50(1 contract)
September 2008:
Total Trades=23
Wins=19
Loss=4
Even=0
Points win=28.00
Points loss=(14.50)
Contracts=92
Net:=$408.20(2 contracts)
_______________________________________________________________
My methodology is sound but I keep falling into the same old pattern. ie/ Have a few wins, gain confidence, increase trading unit, suffer a loss, try again, lose, etc.
02/10/2008 was a major turning point, I finally gained the confidence to trade 3 contracts, suffered a loss and.....
I will persevere.
Last edited:
new_trader
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30-01-2009 - 1st Hour PAPER TRADING
What I can do when there is no fear and/or hesitation.
30/01/2009-------1-------837.00-------Sell
30/01/2009-------1-------838.50-------Buy-------(1.50)
30/01/2009-------1-------838.00-------Sell
30/01/2009-------1-------835.50-------Buy-------2.50
30/01/2009-------1-------835.00-------Sell
30/01/2009-------1-------834.50-------Buy-------0.50
30/01/2009-------1-------834.50-------Buy
30/01/2009-------1-------835.25-------Sell-------0.75
30/01/2009-------1-------835.25-------Sell
30/01/2009-------1-------832.75-------Buy-------2.50
30/01/2009-------1-------832.00-------Buy
30/01/2009-------1-------830.50-------Sell-------(1.50)
30/01/2009-------1-------830.50-------Buy
30/01/2009-------1-------831.00-------Sell-------0.50
--------------------------------------------------------------
Total: 3.75
Average Point/trade: 0.536 (excluding commission)
What I can do when there is no fear and/or hesitation.
30/01/2009-------1-------837.00-------Sell
30/01/2009-------1-------838.50-------Buy-------(1.50)
30/01/2009-------1-------838.00-------Sell
30/01/2009-------1-------835.50-------Buy-------2.50
30/01/2009-------1-------835.00-------Sell
30/01/2009-------1-------834.50-------Buy-------0.50
30/01/2009-------1-------834.50-------Buy
30/01/2009-------1-------835.25-------Sell-------0.75
30/01/2009-------1-------835.25-------Sell
30/01/2009-------1-------832.75-------Buy-------2.50
30/01/2009-------1-------832.00-------Buy
30/01/2009-------1-------830.50-------Sell-------(1.50)
30/01/2009-------1-------830.50-------Buy
30/01/2009-------1-------831.00-------Sell-------0.50
--------------------------------------------------------------
Total: 3.75
Average Point/trade: 0.536 (excluding commission)
new_trader,
I've had a look at the first table and calculated the expectancy of your methodology.
Removing the evens from the sample,
Return per $ risked = [(av.win x win%)-(av.loss x loss5)] / av.loss
= [(0.663 x 364) - (0.337 x 279.49)] / 279.49
= 0.53
i.e for every $1.00 risked you expect to return 53cents.
0.50 is regarded as very good, so you're doing just fine
Joey
new_trader
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new_trader,
I've had a look at the first table and calculated the expectancy of your methodology.
Removing the evens from the sample,
Return per $ risked = [(av.win x win%)-(av.loss x loss5)] / av.loss
= [(0.663 x 364) - (0.337 x 279.49)] / 279.49
= 0.53
i.e for every $1.00 risked you expect to return 53cents.
0.50 is regarded as very good, so you're doing just fine
Joey
Joey, it's either a fluke or you saw my previous post. Take a look at my paper trades.
Absolute fluke!
Last edited:
Having seen joey's expectancy workings for your system it's obvious that you can do this with the method you are trading despite my initial reservations. However i believe you need to focus more on favorable risk:reward opportunities, and to steer clear of the trades which you said to me had to be small gains to prevent them from being full losses. Eradicating these from your trading would probably have a massive difference on your bottom line as you will be limiting the losses on days where you're not on form due to the discretionary nature of your system.
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