Elliott Wave EUR/USD

[JahDave]

A monthly top formation, we could be short for sometime.

With elliot, how are you counting them, can you demontrate on a chart. I'm finding it so difficult to grasp.

It's really not that difficult.........I have screwed it up so many times because I try to fit my wave count into what I think the markets should be doing........If you or I will only follow the most logical count then we will be correct most of the time.......Also, Elliott Wave gives some great signals as to where you know you are wrong........In the case of the EUR_USD chart I am posting it is the 1.4520......The flipside of Elliott Wave is that it is not good at giving entry signals........Fibbonacci and trendline channels used in conjunction with Elliott Wave are good........Also,,,,,,,I always use a modified stochastic with a fractal indicator stacked on top of it to help me confirm wave counts......

 

[JahDave]

Here is a good 5 minute Aussie screenshot.........it should go down to new lows from here because it is a classic abc correction with a, being 3 waves and b, being 3 waves and c, being 5 waves................Let's see what happens.......

 

[JahDave]

Also when a long term trend changes then prices will get pushed to the limit and possibly a little past,,,,,,,,,so this makes Elliott Wave very confusing in these instances,,,,,,,,,,but if you read Elliott Wave Analysis by Frost and Prechter then they say that leveraged markets will break Elliott Wave rules sometimes...........I haven't seen this very often,,,,,,but I have seen this occasionally...........The bottom line is that until some good confirmation comes along then Elliott Wave is not all knowing.........I thought it was 5 years ago,,,,,,but now I realize that it is very good at what it can do,,,,,,but it is not perfect either.........I always use trendlines and Modified stochastic to confirm wave counts........

 

[targus+]

Looks like she is going to re-test 1.4520?

 

[JahDave]

Looks like she is going to re-test 1.4520?

I say she is going to test the 1.3875 this time and after a bounce she is going to test the 1.3500........

 

[targus+]

Current price is 1.4395

 

[JahDave]

Here is a good 5 minute Aussie screenshot.........it should go down to new lows from here because it is a classic abc correction with a, being 3 waves and b, being 3 waves and c, being 5 waves................Let's see what happens.......

Here is a good Aussie 5 minute screenshot with a leading diagonal........

 

[JahDave]

The Euro does not make any sense right now for the upside it is producing............I say see ya................LOL.................This is going to be brutal.................

 

[JahDave]

The Euro does not make any sense right now for the upside it is producing............I say see ya................LOL.................This is going to be brutal.................

Look at this Williams Percent indicator below the candles and how awkward this move is above the Ichimoku cloud.........I've not seen anything like this before............This is very curious,,,,,,,,,,,,,but I am already short Euro across the board.............

 

[dmt257]

Why do you think its strengthening? As if the most recent escalation of debt crisis isn't bad enough, it surely puts further interest rate rises further down the agenda.

Then again a natural disaster strengthened the Yen across the board. Funny old game this.

 

[JahDave]

Let's all conglomerate on this page please.............................My goal has always been to have many different opinions posted here and let everyone sort it out themselves................I don't care what method you use to chart or how unconventional it is..................

 

[JahDave]

Why do you think its strengthening? As if the most recent escalation of debt crisis isn't bad enough, it surely puts further interest rate rises further down the agenda.

Then again a natural disaster strengthened the Yen across the board. Funny old game this.

My opinion is that if the U.S. stock market goes down, then the USD will strengthen....................If you look at the U.S. Stock market then you will see that it is seriously overbought for no reason..................Also I have been tracking the Dow Jones for 5 years and It is in a very deep wave 2 retracement.................If it makes a new high then I am wrong,,,,,,,,,,,,,,but if it makes a new low then we have a long term reversal......................My honest opinion based on Elliott Wave and Fibonacci is that the Dow will make it down below 4000...............WOW.............That is brave............That also means that the USD will get up bigtime..............Unfortunately,,,,,,,,,,,,,after that will be the demise of the USD...............I hate that because I am an American Patriot,,,,,,buts I can't fight Elliott Wave.................

Peace and Love Everyone,
JahDave

Listen and Learn

 

[JahDave]

But for the short term the the Euro will go up and then down and then on a larger scale up...........After that then we will get a large move down because a triangle is almost always the next to the last wave pattern.....................and the Euro is in a triangle right now............................I have said this same thing many different ways now

 

[JahDave]

Here is a good Aussie 5 minute screenshot with a leading diagonal........

Here is the updated chart......................this may be a triangle, which would qualify as a wave 4 and we could make one more high..............Or this could be an ending diagonal...................Either way we should at least get an abc down to at least the 38% fibo level,......................

 

[targus+]

JarDave

You still holding your short?

 

[JahDave]

JarDave

You still holding your short?

I have held my short this entire time........Like I said earlier, I took a very small position and I will add to it if and when it breaks down........I thought it was breaking down last week, but as usual I was early........This is why I take very small positions now.......If I trade on the day charts then I am always in early, but I have been correct 99% of the time on the longer time frame.......Early on the day charts = a wiped out account on large positions........I have found that trading the modified stochastic on the 1 and 5 minute charts works 80% of the time..................and that is great for scalping..........The Elliott Wave count is technically fulfilled now on the day chart and as I have said before Wave patterns repeat, but there is no way to know what scale they will be.........I think the odds are at least 80% that this move up will not go above 1.5145 before making new lows below1.1800.........Also I think there is a 99% chance that the Euro will not go above the all time high of 1.6000 before it goes down below1.1800...........With this being said I am looking for a long term wave 2 top...........and this means that wave 3 will be starting next, and this is usually the longest and strongest wave of all........This is why I personally think that the Euro will go much lower than the 1.1800 minimum..........I think wave 3 will reach down to somewhere between .91 and .85............If wave 3 doesn't get there then I think wave 5 will get there..................

 

[JahDave]

The Kiwi is toast......I guess it's first this time.....

 

[JahDave]

In it's defense, the day is far from over and it could still rally as shown on the day chart, but I am short here, with a small position waiting for a meaningful break before going bigger...............

 

[JahDave]

Everything gets whippy with not much progress or regress around major tops and bottoms, and that is where we are right now............I think the Euro could make one more top on the daily chart before it starts on a very long reversal............It took 2 years to climb to this top, but there is a reason down positions are called "shorts"............It is because they usually go fast and brutal..........I am already short Euro and have been several weeks with a small position,,,,,,,,,,also I have gone short Kiwi and short Aussie tonight,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Fully expecting to go negative several hundred pips before getting in the black...........The thing is that these currencies should go down thousands of pips against the USD and I will be selling rallies all the way down to build some very large positions.........

Good trading everyone,
JahDave

 

[JahDave]

Everything gets whippy with not much progress or regress around major tops and bottoms, and that is where we are right now............I think the Euro could make one more top on the daily chart before it starts on a very long reversal............It took 2 years to climb to this top, but there is a reason down positions are called "shorts"............It is because they usually go fast and brutal..........I am already short Euro and have been several weeks with a small position,,,,,,,,,,also I have gone short Kiwi and short Aussie tonight,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Fully expecting to go negative several hundred pips before getting in the black...........The thing is that these currencies should go down thousands of pips against the USD and I will be selling rallies all the way down to build some very large positions.........

Good trading everyone,
JahDave

Here is the Euro daily chart zoomed in close...........It has already had some good long wicks on the candle tops that should have brought it down, but people keep pushing it up..............This cannot last much longer.............On the other hand people are just plain stupid and they could push this up another 200 pips or so.........I really don't care because the signs are there and tops will be small before a huge drop and I have a very small short that can withstand several thousand pips before stressing my account................