Elliott Wave EUR/USD

[JahDave]

The 1 Minute chart is having a very strong move up and this seems more normal now before a reversal.

 

[JahDave]

Here is the Aussie daily and hourly chart. On the daily chart I don't like the fact that the correction fell short of the Fibo 61.8 retracement, but that could mean a very strong down move as well. On the hourly chart, There is a very nominal high here and this pair just can't seem to get any traction to the upside...... I am still favoring a strong down move, but I am trading it cautiously at this point. If it picks up momentum to the downside then I will be piling on with the crowd....

Well here ya go. My feeling about it not making the 61.8 fibo retracement on the daily was well founded. Sometimes currency pairs don't turn on Fibonacci levels, but most of the time they do. I did a little chart relabeling because of the last 2 days moves. It is obvious now that this pair is in an ending diagonal which could be over now or could go for 9 waves instead of 5. Either way we should see a pullback of about 150 pips from here to the support line.

 

[JahDave]

I am posting a 5 minute Ichimoku chart and i don't like it for a long term down move at all.......It has fallen through the cloud multiple times , but from an Elliott Wave perspective then it is going into a lower "C" wave and then higher

 

[JahDave]

This pair is blazing to the upside....... When it is done then this will be avery good short. BTW, The USD index has one more move up...

 

[JahDave]

Or just higher,,,,that is even better for trading...........After this last move finishes then I am a seller long term, and I mean very long term,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Maybe for several years on a core position with trading the shorter term with smaller positions............

 

[JahDave]

sorry....what do you mean....are you recommending to go short at this level?

If you are a position trader then i say go short now. If you are a scalper then I say go short now.......If you trade the fluctuations of the markets on the hourly charts then I would say that the Aussie is going up a bit more before going down long term....... Questions???

 

[hwsteele]

My so called "Master" angle turn forecaster tool is saying that a turn is due on the AUD/USD on the daily charts. Seems to be what you are saying also?

 

[ForexLion]

The AU may be going down? Very interesting.

 

[JahDave]

I have been stopped out a few times in the last several weeks trying the short and have made a few pips on the longs as well, so I am almost even right now. Here is the real deal though.............On the daily charts the Aussie is very close to the .7160 Fibonacci............(1.0550)...........I have already gone short small at 1.0530 and I will be going big short at 1.0550 with a stop on both at 1.0575..............Attached is my daily chart which has hit the top of the channel.......The reason I have a small stop is because sometimes the last move up has some throw over above the channel...

 

[JahDave]

Here is an Aussie chart that I got from the Saint Louis Fed from 1971 until now.......Please give me some opinions here................

 

[JahDave]

Well the Euro finally turned down a few months ago and now it is getting a bounce. I will be shorting it again soon. My opinion is that the world debt crisis will have to be dealt with at some point and that will be ugly. I think that Europe will be hit the hardest, but I'm not sure exactly when that will happen...