Lightning McQueen
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crystalballs said:
do some work!! and read the bottom of my post
Dow - Which Way?
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do some work!! and read the bottom of my post
crystalballs
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OK, Don. What ever you say. You're the man.
mr.marcus
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...actually bid if you hadn't been so insistent in telling me that i didn't know what i was doing and you did.....when i questioned your timing... you would have found that i also see similar signs to yourself...but not to the same degree yet....as i am an intraday trader i use the bigger picture to give me expectation of the swings within the day.....but i am also aware that having opinions set in stone is not a good move...that market is all about possibilities and probabilities not certainties as your should know...its also about adapting and good timing...go with the flow dont fight it..this is what i questioned you on.
so what do i see....the pros are heavy long but finding it hard to generate any demand with the weak hands so it appears that there could soon be a major dump if demand doesn't pick up soon....they have tried a number of times and failed recently to muster weak hand demand.....however the final push on friday has set the market up to make new highs....it makes logical sense even with this underlying condition of weakness to mark up thru the highs and off load into them at least some positions....but im open to all possibilities.....this would be the most likely event using what new weak hand demand there is.but hey im intraday and trade whatever the flow tells me.
mark j
so what do i see....the pros are heavy long but finding it hard to generate any demand with the weak hands so it appears that there could soon be a major dump if demand doesn't pick up soon....they have tried a number of times and failed recently to muster weak hand demand.....however the final push on friday has set the market up to make new highs....it makes logical sense even with this underlying condition of weakness to mark up thru the highs and off load into them at least some positions....but im open to all possibilities.....this would be the most likely event using what new weak hand demand there is.but hey im intraday and trade whatever the flow tells me.
mark j
Bid A-Tool
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jezza888 said:
TO PROVE I HAVE CREATED THE HOLY GRAIL TRADING SYSTEM. IT REALLY DOES EXIST.
YOU ARE NOT TELLING ME THAT IT IS NOT EVERY TRADERS DESIRE. WHY ARE TRADERS ALWAYS TRYING TO FIND THE HOLY GRAIL SYSTEM IF IT DOESN'T EXIST?
Bid A-Tool
crystalballs
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Trending days and triangles, Bid? Does volume tell you when a triangle is being formed?
rols
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Adieu
James/BAT/BATTY/Bid -A-Tool/Peter -O-Toole etc.
Chelsea V ManU highlights on soon so I must log off in a mo.
I know I've had more farewells than Dame Nellie but this is it..
This thread has now more views than the DOW has points and over 400 posts. Saturday night is prime time on TV and maybe it's why you have shown your hand at this time for maximum effect.
At one point I felt "Dow - Which Way" had taken on an immortal quality which even the pen of Albert would have found difficult to terminate.
Whether the DOW goes up or down on Monday is of no importance to me because I'll trade it either way. BUT I must say, as now this thread is coming to an end, it has provided much entertainment to us all and I thank you for your sense of humour and unbelievable persistence. Two qualities very necessary for a trader!
And finally. If your forecast for Monday is correct then "congratulations" in advance...
If not, then tough titties!
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
'Life's a bitch, and then you die.' Woody Allen
James/BAT/BATTY/Bid -A-Tool/Peter -O-Toole etc.
Chelsea V ManU highlights on soon so I must log off in a mo.
I know I've had more farewells than Dame Nellie but this is it..
This thread has now more views than the DOW has points and over 400 posts. Saturday night is prime time on TV and maybe it's why you have shown your hand at this time for maximum effect.
At one point I felt "Dow - Which Way" had taken on an immortal quality which even the pen of Albert would have found difficult to terminate.
Whether the DOW goes up or down on Monday is of no importance to me because I'll trade it either way. BUT I must say, as now this thread is coming to an end, it has provided much entertainment to us all and I thank you for your sense of humour and unbelievable persistence. Two qualities very necessary for a trader!
And finally. If your forecast for Monday is correct then "congratulations" in advance...
If not, then tough titties!
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
'Life's a bitch, and then you die.' Woody Allen
jezza888
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Bid A-Tool said:
For me I allready have, I make plenty more than I lose and I accept businesses have expenses (losses). I'm not looking for anything more, I'm happy with my trading income. I wish you all the luck you need and hope you are succesful. I don't trade indicies anyway and if currencies move one way or the other, I'm sure I'll make myself money from it.
Whether your system is right or wrong is not my point. 5 days ago you had no faith in your system. A few weeks ago, you were only testing ideas and looking for stop ideas. Now you are warning the world of the biggest crash in nearly 20 years. Hell of a jump mate.
crystalballs
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Can you trade a triangle through SB, Bid?
rav700
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"I think you think everyone thinks"
Only some people get it right and those are the ones who instead of saying it will go up and down specify their logical reasons for the expectancy in the move....
This is what I am setting out to do at this point.....
1.On observation of all the charts for the last 5 years We have always had a bit of correction in the month of may at least 200 to 300 point or so as obviously the dow needs a bit of correction but not a huge one as per the technical analysis that i have done.
2.As a result of intrest rates being put on hold...if you are not a trader do not even bother answering this question it is but obvious that it will attract a lot of international trade. hence we could probably see the dow going to new heights after the correction..
*****The dow is almost has visited the 468 mark which is exactly 100 point away but is still sitting pretty close to the top after most of the results have come out.So on the basis of this we could expect some profit taking I say till the 11000 and bounce of from their as support
I guess if Bid-a-tool is a bear trader then all he might be suggesting is the market will have a pullback for a about 200-300 point in the next week or so....but that in my books is called a correction and not a crash...
What is happening next week:
No major companies are reporting next week :
The economic calendar is overflowing with reports due next week. But the spotlight will fall on Friday when the Labor Department releases its April nonfarm payrolls data. See economic preview.
Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expect the payrolls number to reflect little change for the month, with growth of 209,000 following a gain of 211,000 in March.
The unemployment rate likely stayed at a cyclical low of 4.7%.
Lehman Brothers, along with a number of economists, expects the unemployment rate to slip to 4.6% because it sees a 225,000 rise in nonfarm payrolls.
"This report is unlikely to aid the case for a pause from the Federal Reserve as this measure of resource utilization points toward growing inflationary pressures," said Lehman in a note.
The April survey of manufacturing purchasing managers is expected from the Institute for Supply Management on Monday. Economists expect a slight increase to 55.3% from 55.2%.
Also Monday, look for a breakdown of personal income, consumer spending and consumer inflation data for March.
Domestic vehicle sales figures are expected Tuesday. Sales seen remaining steady at about 16.3 million annualized in April.
Productivity numbers for the first quarter are scheduled for release on Thursday, and economists are looking for 2.9% annualized increase following a 0.5% dip in the fourth quarter.
What does the news channels say clippig from a lot of places:
U.S. stocks are expected to take their cues next week from a slew of economic data, with everything from consumer spending to business sentiment on tap and culminating with the April jobs report on Friday.
With investors now more optimistic that the Federal Reserve's cycle of interest-rate increases is nearing at least a pause, the data will be closely scrutinized for signs of inflation or unexpected economic strength.
Todd Salamone, vice president of research at Schaeffer's Investment Research, said if any unexpectedly strong data surfaces, he "wouldn't be surprised to see [the market] quickly supported."
The market has a cushion in the amount of hedging activity happening in the options market, he said, so "if the broader market does pull back, there is less incentive for panic selling due to the put open interest in some of these exchange-traded funds."
Rate hike fears eased this week after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's hint that a pause in the rate-increase cycle is near.
"There is ... the possibility that if there is sufficient uncertainty, that we may chose to pause, simply to gain more information to learn better what the true risks are and how the economy is actually evolving," said Bernanke in congressional testimony. Read Bernanke's testimony.
However, a pause does not necessarily mean a total end to hikes, he said.
"Of course, a decision to take no action at a particular meeting does not preclude action at subsequent meetings," Bernanke said.
Stocks rallied on his comments Thursday, but were pressured a day later by a disappointing results and outlook from Microsoft Corp. (MSFT : Microsoft Corporation
News , chart, profile, more
Last: 24.15-3.10-11.38%
on a brighter note, data showed the economy in the first quarter grew at an annual rate of 4.8%, the fastest growth in more than two years, according to the Commerce Department. The increase was close to market expectations of a gain of 4.9%. Read Economic Report.
That growth didn't appear to translate into inflationary pressures for the economy. The core consumer price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, fell to a 2% annual rate from 2.4%. That pushed the year-over-year gain down to 1.9%, under the top of the Federal Reserve's target range. Employment costs also fell to their lowest level since 1999. Read about the employment costs report.
"I think the markets clearly have some license to try to break out of this trading range," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist at Windham Financial Services. "We're right at the top of it, at 1315 to 1318 on the S&P 500, [which] is pretty much a resistance point we've been running into and it's important that we break through this number."
Mendelsohn added that while Friday's employment figures will be market-moving, Bernanke and his colleagues are zeroing in on what's in store in the months ahead.
"Basically what he's telling us is that the numbers we're seeing now may not be taking into account the full impact of the rate increases that have already taken place," he said.
The vulnerability of the stock market is palpable to Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak, who sees stocks moving lower next week considering "big, important company earnings" have already been released.
Bernanke's message "makes us very sensitive to every piece of economic data that comes out," he said. "The Fed likely wants to stop at 5% but if the economy remains strong and the inflation trends remain higher, the Fed would be forced to raise."
Commodities will remain in the picture too. Oil eased off the record above $75 a barrel set last week, but remained above $71, rising Friday after the United Nations said Iran has failed to comply with a deadline to stop enriching uranium and has refused to cooperate with inspectors. See Futures Movers.
Gold also set a fresh 25-year high as concerns about how the nuclear dispute will be resolved created safe-haven interest. See Metals Stocks.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU : Dow Jones Industrial Average
Last: 11,367.14-15.37-0.14%
I dont know if this will help anyone but at least I think it does tell you so much as too why the market aint gonna crash...
Please dont take this in the wrong way bid-a-tool...you might be right but these are just my thoughts...
Best of luck
Happy trading
Rav :cheesy:
Only some people get it right and those are the ones who instead of saying it will go up and down specify their logical reasons for the expectancy in the move....
This is what I am setting out to do at this point.....
1.On observation of all the charts for the last 5 years We have always had a bit of correction in the month of may at least 200 to 300 point or so as obviously the dow needs a bit of correction but not a huge one as per the technical analysis that i have done.
2.As a result of intrest rates being put on hold...if you are not a trader do not even bother answering this question it is but obvious that it will attract a lot of international trade. hence we could probably see the dow going to new heights after the correction..
*****The dow is almost has visited the 468 mark which is exactly 100 point away but is still sitting pretty close to the top after most of the results have come out.So on the basis of this we could expect some profit taking I say till the 11000 and bounce of from their as support
I guess if Bid-a-tool is a bear trader then all he might be suggesting is the market will have a pullback for a about 200-300 point in the next week or so....but that in my books is called a correction and not a crash...
What is happening next week:
No major companies are reporting next week :
The economic calendar is overflowing with reports due next week. But the spotlight will fall on Friday when the Labor Department releases its April nonfarm payrolls data. See economic preview.
Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expect the payrolls number to reflect little change for the month, with growth of 209,000 following a gain of 211,000 in March.
The unemployment rate likely stayed at a cyclical low of 4.7%.
Lehman Brothers, along with a number of economists, expects the unemployment rate to slip to 4.6% because it sees a 225,000 rise in nonfarm payrolls.
"This report is unlikely to aid the case for a pause from the Federal Reserve as this measure of resource utilization points toward growing inflationary pressures," said Lehman in a note.
The April survey of manufacturing purchasing managers is expected from the Institute for Supply Management on Monday. Economists expect a slight increase to 55.3% from 55.2%.
Also Monday, look for a breakdown of personal income, consumer spending and consumer inflation data for March.
Domestic vehicle sales figures are expected Tuesday. Sales seen remaining steady at about 16.3 million annualized in April.
Productivity numbers for the first quarter are scheduled for release on Thursday, and economists are looking for 2.9% annualized increase following a 0.5% dip in the fourth quarter.
What does the news channels say clippig from a lot of places:
U.S. stocks are expected to take their cues next week from a slew of economic data, with everything from consumer spending to business sentiment on tap and culminating with the April jobs report on Friday.
With investors now more optimistic that the Federal Reserve's cycle of interest-rate increases is nearing at least a pause, the data will be closely scrutinized for signs of inflation or unexpected economic strength.
Todd Salamone, vice president of research at Schaeffer's Investment Research, said if any unexpectedly strong data surfaces, he "wouldn't be surprised to see [the market] quickly supported."
The market has a cushion in the amount of hedging activity happening in the options market, he said, so "if the broader market does pull back, there is less incentive for panic selling due to the put open interest in some of these exchange-traded funds."
Rate hike fears eased this week after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's hint that a pause in the rate-increase cycle is near.
"There is ... the possibility that if there is sufficient uncertainty, that we may chose to pause, simply to gain more information to learn better what the true risks are and how the economy is actually evolving," said Bernanke in congressional testimony. Read Bernanke's testimony.
However, a pause does not necessarily mean a total end to hikes, he said.
"Of course, a decision to take no action at a particular meeting does not preclude action at subsequent meetings," Bernanke said.
Stocks rallied on his comments Thursday, but were pressured a day later by a disappointing results and outlook from Microsoft Corp. (MSFT : Microsoft Corporation
News , chart, profile, more
Last: 24.15-3.10-11.38%
on a brighter note, data showed the economy in the first quarter grew at an annual rate of 4.8%, the fastest growth in more than two years, according to the Commerce Department. The increase was close to market expectations of a gain of 4.9%. Read Economic Report.
That growth didn't appear to translate into inflationary pressures for the economy. The core consumer price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, fell to a 2% annual rate from 2.4%. That pushed the year-over-year gain down to 1.9%, under the top of the Federal Reserve's target range. Employment costs also fell to their lowest level since 1999. Read about the employment costs report.
"I think the markets clearly have some license to try to break out of this trading range," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist at Windham Financial Services. "We're right at the top of it, at 1315 to 1318 on the S&P 500, [which] is pretty much a resistance point we've been running into and it's important that we break through this number."
Mendelsohn added that while Friday's employment figures will be market-moving, Bernanke and his colleagues are zeroing in on what's in store in the months ahead.
"Basically what he's telling us is that the numbers we're seeing now may not be taking into account the full impact of the rate increases that have already taken place," he said.
The vulnerability of the stock market is palpable to Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak, who sees stocks moving lower next week considering "big, important company earnings" have already been released.
Bernanke's message "makes us very sensitive to every piece of economic data that comes out," he said. "The Fed likely wants to stop at 5% but if the economy remains strong and the inflation trends remain higher, the Fed would be forced to raise."
Commodities will remain in the picture too. Oil eased off the record above $75 a barrel set last week, but remained above $71, rising Friday after the United Nations said Iran has failed to comply with a deadline to stop enriching uranium and has refused to cooperate with inspectors. See Futures Movers.
Gold also set a fresh 25-year high as concerns about how the nuclear dispute will be resolved created safe-haven interest. See Metals Stocks.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU : Dow Jones Industrial Average
Last: 11,367.14-15.37-0.14%
I dont know if this will help anyone but at least I think it does tell you so much as too why the market aint gonna crash...
Please dont take this in the wrong way bid-a-tool...you might be right but these are just my thoughts...
Best of luck
Happy trading
Rav :cheesy:
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Bid A-Tool
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rols said:
Thanks Rols but you know I will be right on Monday. If my system is correct about Monday then it will not have any trouble finding boring swings in the Day Trading business. It will be too easy. Spot on tops and Spot on bottoms......and I tell you what it can do it almost perfectly.
Bid A-Tool
Bid A-Tool
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jezza888 said:
It's a HELL of a system.
Bid A-Tool
mr.marcus
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..nice post rav but it is far simpler than the above....its all about who's holding and what desires are being shown in the market....this is all found in price ,volume and open interest...... and the balance between weak and strong holders .....news is just an excuse to stir up the hornets nests cause weak hands cant resist playing when they shouldn't be....they are visual,emotive undisciplined creatures...at the moment we have.....strong hands holding ....and weak hands not playing the game.....in these times for a change its the weak hands that could pick up the bargains if dumping occurs.....cheers mark j
Bigbusiness
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Anyone remember Lord Jamla? He was never wrong and had found the Holy Grail. He hasn't been around much, after predicting a market crash that never happened. He was a laugh though. http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=5417
Chocolate
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James, there is no such thing as a formula for DOW behaviour... Price depends on market participants, and the world is inherently unpredictable so we must talk only about probabilities. A lot of countries around the world have very large dollar reserves. Presumably they invest those reserves in Bonds and stocks (someone correct me if I'm wrong, I know next to nothing about these things...). If one of those countries decides, hmmm... I think I'll put my deposit account into stocks because I think they're undervalued, stocks would rally big-time. Unpredictable things mean you need to know where your stops are, and be prepared to lose that money in the (maybe for you unlikely) event you're wrong. Massive indicator does not equal certainty!!!!
Chocolate
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Don, thanks for the kind reply. So, dollar and DOW seem a bit out of sync, but you would expect a stock market fall to lead to a dollar decline, a stock market fall to cause massive demand and spiralling prices of gold; the fact that the market seems fine, but these lagging indicators of stock market health are giving a thumbs-down I find hard to understand. The market is afraid of inflation because of tightening of interest rates, but if there were inflation, and no tightening of interest rates surely stock prices would go through the roof.
Everyone in the US is making so much money, just lok at the no. of companies reporting greater earnings than expected. IT IS STILL A BULL MARKET. Indicators can be used successfully by some, but why buck the trend, unless Bin Laden etc. have a go i cant see anything but up
dick_dastardly
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Bigbusiness said:
BB
Wasn't stockjunkie one of LORD JAMLA's nicks ?
hornblower
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the dow is at an all time high and stocks are running out of steam
bat may be / or not correct in his call
but I remember the dot com boom, and when people started to say that it was over bought and it was time for a correction
They where howled down
but they where correct
so just maybe, this may be the first call,
it may not
but just think about it
bat may be / or not correct in his call
but I remember the dot com boom, and when people started to say that it was over bought and it was time for a correction
They where howled down
but they where correct
so just maybe, this may be the first call,
it may not
but just think about it
Last edited:
Bigbusiness
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dick_dastardly said:
I don't know about that. Their posts don't seem that similar to me but I could be wrong.
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