Dow-Next move!


Well-known member
The markets seem to have bottomed out after a little panic - especially due to the experience of the last 3 years.

Will the dow move up to the 10000 mark in the next upward trend- i.e in the next couple of months. Or do others think the markets still have to fall some more first?

Opinions please!
I know we'll get more big movement in the next couple of days but as for ultimate direction over months I haven't a clue.It seems to have been Bullish since the war and I would expect it to remain so until some huge terrorist event or other catastrophe resetting the direction.
I read the Dow chart as having a short-term bottom, so during the last hour on Friday I went long on December Dow at 9290, for an EOD play just for fun.

My reasons: on the emini S&P intraday chart (ES) there is a clear (to me, anyway) five wave down. It is there on the Dow too, but it's not so easy to see. I use both Dow and ES as sometimes patterns are easier to see on one rather than the other. This one is definitely clearer on ES.

The chart below shows the ES 30 minute chart, annotated with the 5 waves.

The Elliott waves, to my eye, are the 'wrong way round'. By that I mean that wave 2 looks as if it should be a wave 4, and wave 4 looks like wave 2 normally looks. It's difficult to describe, but to me it resembles an inverse Elliott Wave, and therefore could be another clue. Time will tell. :D


  • es 30 min.jpg
    es 30 min.jpg
    47.3 KB · Views: 437
Skim & Johny40

Thanks for your input much appreciated!

It all helps to keep my brain cells ticking over!

Very good observation Skims
Hi guys
I was thinking about this over the weekend.. I also think this is a short term bottom

From the 30 min chart, you can see pretty clearly strength in the charts.. positive divergence, MACD and RSI.

I've closed all me short positions and just gonna see what happens today, will enter long if I see a signal!


  • dow 30.jpg
    dow 30.jpg
    113.4 KB · Views: 445
Just read the Tom H analysis on the tactical trader website and he seems to think there could be a big fall today. So doing the opposite might be a good idea (only joking!).
One thing that caught my eye in yesterday's Sunday Express (Can't find it now) was that a North Korean scientist had been missing from his lab since the end of June. He was suspected of being well on the way to developing a 'colour specific' bio-terror weapon. the article speculated he had been snatched by the CIA. So whether this is a leak designed to get us ready for something (Nuclear negotiations with the N.Koreans aren't going well?) I couldn't say but I do think GeorgeW means to follow the Neo-Conservative agenda to its conclusion and that means the world will be a very uncertain place for perhaps decades to come.
Only GOD knows the future move.. Those who predict leave their guards open.. Traders , trade based on market unfolding its hands right infront of their eyes.. play the game based on Price action and volume and read about risk analysis ( ENTRY ), donot be much worried about EXIT .. it is the wrong entry which loses u money and not bad exit..

Received this email today and could not stop laughing

Quote "

After the news on Monday the market should settle out and move into a trend.
Tuesday could provide another shallow range, especially if Monday opens up.
Wednesday early will be affected by the news, but could turn into a great
trading day, as we move closer to the close. The news on Thursday could send
the market reeling, but if the already identified direction agrees with the
news then we could see an accelration of the trend. Friday will have about
the same impact as Thursday.

THESE GUYS ARE NOT COMEDIANS THEY ARE WELL RESPECTED TECHNICIANS OR STRATEGY CONSULTANTS.. they simply donot know what to say except to be political about their statements