Dow Intraday charts 21/07 25/07

[ChartMan]

You'll only have the balls once you have experience under your belt. Begin by placing a smaller stake on those entries that you are not sure about. Then, as the move progresses, in this case when it pulled back a second time to 9149 @ 17:30, build your stake to a "normal" size. You're now 20 points in profit ( ignoring bias) and looking safer. The clue here was CCI was close to 100 having come up through zero. If CCI was dropping from say 250, then the entry would be "risky".
Track the moves guaging strength of dips by the relative move in RSI. All the dips were RSI weak, so no reason to close, ignoring all other criteria.

 

[bottomdollar]

Chartman,
This is really good analysis.. what is T1 and T2??

Also, in another thread there is reference to one of your really early posts.. a year ago and you used the phase indicator (which I've never heard of). Is it a worthwhile indicator to use.. I note it's not in your charts these days..

Thanks

BD

 

[marky]

Hi all

Nice update chartman unlike yourself i cant hold in all day as soon as i hit a target i bail out, but over the past few weeks my trading is constantly improving yesterday was my best day ever i took 4 bites out he cake on the way up and its all down to patience and waiting for a pattern to develop as usual entered with a 10 point stop and virtually no draw down . have a good week end all .

Regards mark

 

[bottomdollar]

Marky, great stuff
Those support/resistance lines... 9129, 9151, 9172, 9198 and 9242 on your chart.. are they previous peaks/troughs or Fibonacci lines (if Fib then where did you take then from??)
Regards
BD

 

[marky]

Hi bottomdollar

They are a tradestation add on tool based on Fibonacci Retracements you manually pick 3 points to set them up so can be a pain some days but work well most days. Regards mark

 

[ChartMan]

Bottom Dollar/Marky - T1,2,3 etc are target values that are calculated before the event. As time passes, they either "deliver" or fail .
If they deliver, the move MAY continue. If they fail, the move is most likely over for now and time to exit.
From Friday's charts, T! and T2 were the target from the bull flag pullbacks. It is essential that you can calculate targets. That is the way to optimising your profits and deciding if your position should close or continue.With the DOW, you must be prepared to let a 20 or 30 point pullback ( the norm in a rally) run.As I have said before, you'll see a weakness in RSI on pullbacks, i.e a 20 point drop in the price may be attributed to a 40 point drop in RSI.
A 1 point move in price for a 1 point move in RSI is what I would call "par" or going nowhere quickly.
BD- Phase was a very good indicator that I have only seen in AIQ Charting package. It's linked closely to MACD and was excellent in showing longer term divergences ( 10 min charts).

 

[marky]

Hi chartman

Ok i just had a good look at your targets and the penny has dropped there spot on, my only worry is the 20-30 point retracement i dont think i could handle making 30 or 40 points and then see them going away from me maybe with more experience i would be able to identify a Retracement as opposed to a reversal , but i have to say my trading has improved 500 % since studying your thread and looking more at the patterns developing patience is the key.

Regards mark

 

[ChartMan]

OK Marky, then try selling half when you get the jitters..... and go back in with a half if you see the bull flag ( or whatever) starting to go in your favour again.
It's just a matter of a compromise between gaining experience and staying in the game, versus panicking and learning and earning nothing.

 

[marky]

Hi chartman

Cheers for the reply i understand what your saying and taking it all on board i think with time and experience il catch up as stated my trading has improved immensely just by following your thread and are getting more confident with each week im also playing with time frames and looking for the time frame im most comfortable with as what works for one may not be suitable for another . Enjoy the rest of the day gotta go to work now
Regards mark