Dow Intraday charts 01/07 - 05/07

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Great start to the month. Pity the news screwed up my projections , but that's life. Looking at the 10 min chart, we are now right back on track from the predictions I made earlier about a break. Having picked up the lower RSI support line over the last few days, the price failed to push RSI down early today confirming even more divergence. It just had to bust. You can only pull a spring so far..... It's no coincidence that the price tested the lower support slop line adn the "W" bottom delivered big time.
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Just amazing. T1 delivers spot on, then T2 delivers spot on from two unusual TA formations - wedges, sort of.... I've not seen such a complex pause formation before. It's neither one thing nor another- bull flag/bull triangle... What is also amazing is the test of the support slope change line taken from the 10 min charts... and the test of the downtrend resistance line. Over 200 points on the table today. :)
Closing at HOD, and an RS switch looks like a great set-up for tomorrow. I like contrarian.
 

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bansir

Well-known member
494 42
Hi CM,
I was fooled into going short by the heavy Neg. Div. at~18:00 to 18:30 ish
Did I miss something that could have helped me avoid the mistake? Maybe the developing uptrend?
Cheers for now,
Neil
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
You missed 2 things.... We only close on the third peak and we only got two.... the second being at 18:29... Secondly, a top out is not an open invitation to go short....
There was clear support at 8940 and the drop in RSI from 90 to 45 was not matched by the move in the price- 20 points or so. A safe short entry would not be until the price dropped below the 100MA, and then pulled back.
 

bansir

Well-known member
494 42
Thanks CM,
I think I'm over-simplifying things, need to read the action with greater care. I can't think for the life of me why I missed the support clue; I actually wrote a comment down on the chart as it was forming saying "possible bull flag?". (doh..)
Interesting, your comment about the relative price movement magnitudes of price and RSI.

Thanks again,
Very Best Regards,
Neil
 

mombasa

Established member
561 1
Hi CM,

just a quick note to say that I haven't been trading for the last 2 weeks - have been preparing for and going to interviews. Hope to be back soon :)
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Onwards and upwards. I had a great call in the chat room at 16:54 just before the 9100 break, calling 9120 target, revised down ( not needed) to 9114. :) This was from the RS switch, the balance of power in the price triangle above the 100MA amd the last low failed to mke support. I thought it was going to fail on the 9090 pullback, but it went on to break and hold 9100. Another 90+ in the bag, and an easy day's trade, with just a hint of touches on the 100MA at pullbacks.
Good touches on 9064 and 9132. Late extended divergence in RSI suggests a drop back tomorrow. Looks like a bit too much too quick. Just my gut feeling....
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
On the other haand, 10 min divergence take a couple of days or so to come good... but there is room for another 100 points to the upside to take us to RSI /CCI resistance which would take us into recent highs area.
 

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china white

Established member
979 12
CM

many thx for yr analysis - as always! I also thot it'd fail on 9090 pullback - looked a bit of a B/D to me... had to pay the price! :(

nice w/e 2 u!
 
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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Too much too soon as sugested, but was the writing on the wall in expectation of the news, or was it simply the news? Who knows. Nothing to talk about today, except to remind you about being flat on news....I know some traded it but was it worth the stress?
That's it for another week...
 

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bansir

Well-known member
494 42
oops-sorry didn't realise I was in upper case.
Not sure how to filter the news that's all. Is there a feed available that just covers dji/ftse etc or do we have to keep an eye on all general news?
Thanks for any help.
Neil
 

rossored

Senior member
2,105 56
Bansir -

I think CM is mostly referring to economic news, which has good/bad effects on the marketplace. The second huge downspike yesterday couldnt have been predicted, and was (apparently) caused by a NYSE trader accidentally entering a huge sell order instead of a not-so-huge one, but I stand to be corrected on that if anyone else knows different. Besides, blame DaxTrader, he's the one who told me... :LOL:

I find a good source of info for when the news is coming out is barrons economic calendar.

http://interactive.wsj.com/barrons/b-econoday.htm
 

bansir

Well-known member
494 42
thanks RR,
Yes, I have used Barrons, I think it was 'Bigbusiness' recommended it to me a while ago but I've only been using the calender in order to be aware of pending anouncements. Looks like I will have to force myself to read the news more. I struggle with this; there's so much of it and the interpretation I find difficult. This is why I am happier with TA. Maybe there are news alerts which can be set up on one of the data providers.
Thanks again,
Neil
 

rudolf

Junior member
20 0
Re: 3rd July news impact on Dow:

1. US employment data at 1.30 pm UK time worse than expected = spike down on SB prices (minus 40/50 points) & carried forward into opening (as noted on CM's chart above).

2. ISM services data at 3 pm alot better than expected - noted circa 9000 to 9040 zone on CM's chart.

[source: http://www.briefing.com/FreeServices/fs_markcal.htm ]

The big dip around 9040 coincided with the erroneous trade - actually, my SB price went into the 8700's before they reverted to phone trading only :eek:

The (1/2) day was dominated by the economic news & CM has underlined the dangers of holding or entering around the announcements ...... guess it's difficult to say any more than that.

Rudi
 
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